Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that in the future, China's labor productivity will continue to increase rapidly, the balance of payments will maintain a surplus pattern, the monetary policy will be stable and tight, and the total amount of foreign exchange reserves will be high. The difference and spread of investment income between China and foreign countries will definitely lead to RMB appreciation, but it will not greatly appreciate, and it is more likely to be basically stable in the medium and long term, with two-way fluctuations and a small appreciation.
According to the data released by the Bank for International Settlements recently, the real effective exchange rate index of RMB in June was10.58%, slightly higher than that in June, which was 5438+0.58%. 165438+1In the month of October, the central parity of RMB fluctuated higher, opening at 6.30 17 and closing at 6.2892.
Due to the continuous rise of the US dollar index and the unsatisfactory domestic economic data at the end of 20 14, the RMB exchange rate started the new year weakly. On the first trading day of 20 15, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6. 1248, down 58 basis points from the previous trading day, and the spot exchange rate was the biggest one-day drop in half a month.
Looking forward to the new year, under the background of the strong return of the US dollar, where will the RMB exchange rate go? What are the main factors that affect the trend of RMB? From the point of view of all parties, the short-term depreciation pressure of RMB exists, but from the aspects of economic fundamentals and balance of payments, the RMB exchange rate will remain stable as a whole.
On the 20th16165438+1October15th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar opened lower again, crossing the 6.83 mark after eight consecutive losses, hitting a new low in recent years. The new lows are constantly being refreshed, and some ordinary people even consider or have converted some RMB deposits into US dollars to preserve their value.
2019,65438+1month, 1 1, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was raised by 25 1 basis point to 6.7909. As of that day 13, both onshore and offshore RMB rose above the 6.75 mark against the US dollar, reaching a new high since July 20 18.
2065438+0165438 On October 5, 2009/KLOC-0, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once again returned to the "7" yuan integer mark. On the onshore market, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose all the way from 7.0298 p.m. to 6.9975, the highest since August 5. On the same day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0385, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day.
On July 9, 2020, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both regained the 7.0 mark and returned to the "6 era". The People's Bank of China authorized China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the central parity of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.0085, up 122 points from the previous trading day. On May 29th this year, the central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7. 13 16, a record low for the year. In less than a month and a half, the central parity of RMB has appreciated by 1.76%.
On May 28th, at 202 1, the onshore RMB rose above 6.37 against the US dollar, reaching a maximum of 6.3698 yuan, a three-year high. The offshore RMB is close to the 6.36 mark against the US dollar.