Watch this week
Non-agricultural disturbance rate hike expectation
This week, Fed officials will continue to deliver speeches on more than 65,438+00 occasions, including the No.3 Federal Reserve, new york Fed President Williams, hawks, Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Boston Fed President Bostic. The focus of the market turned to the policy prospects of the remaining two meetings during the year, hoping to find more clues from the latest statement. FedWatch, the observation tool of the Federal Reserve, shows that the probability that investors now expect 1 1 to raise interest rates by 75 basis points is close to 60%.
In terms of data, the biggest focus in the coming week is undoubtedly the non-agricultural report. The market predicts that 250,000 new jobs will be created in September, the unemployment rate will remain at a stable level of 3.7%, and wages will continue to grow steadily, up 0.3% from last month. Better-than-expected data will consolidate the market's bet on a further sharp interest rate hike in 165438+ 10. For the Fed, as long as inflation and the labor market remain high, there is no reason to slow down the pace of tightening. Therefore, the latest employment report will be one of the most critical determinants before the policy meeting in June 5438+065438+ 10.
In addition, there are some indicators worthy of investors' attention this week. It is expected that the ISM manufacturing index will continue to fall in September, but it is still in the expansion area of more than 50. The payment price, new orders and employment in the sub-indicators may show moderate weakness. In August, American factory orders are expected to stop falling and pick up. In August, the number of job vacancies in the Federal Reserve remained above10,000, indicating that the supply and demand situation of the labor force is still tense.
Crude oil and gold
Commerzbank believes that reducing production will benefit Russia, because when the embargo (EU)65438+ comes into effect in early February, Russia will need to find new buyers for its oil and may need to make further price concessions. Therefore, raising the price in advance will undoubtedly be very popular. Any such reduction in production needs to reach at least 500,000 barrels per day to support oil prices.
With the rebound of the US dollar index, the international gold price stopped falling and rebounded. COMEX gold futures for June 5438+February delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $0/672 per ounce, rising by 1.0% every week and falling by 7.5% in the third quarter.
Jason Teed, research director of Flexible Plan Investments, believes that the rise of the US dollar has limited the price of gold, and the Fed can continue to raise interest rates while trying to curb inflation, thus making the US dollar more attractive. The prospect of gold price is difficult to measure, but as long as the interest rate does not reach the highest level, there is "extra room" for further price decline. Ted stressed that unless the inflation figure drops to the point where the Fed can "loosen the brakes", there is no hope for gold recovery, but it will still take several months.
European Central Bank Announces Minutes of Meeting
This week, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the September policy meeting, and any hint about the interest rate trend will become the focus of market attention. The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points in September, ending the zero interest rate cycle. The latest interest rate market futures show that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 75 basis points again this month.
According to the data released by Eurostat, the consumer price index (CPI) in the euro zone climbed by 9. 1% in August, and the year-on-year increase in September further reached 10.0%, a record high. Among them, energy prices rose by 40.8% year-on-year, which became the main driving factor. It is widely expected that inflation will rise further in the coming months, which increases the risk that the economy will fall into recession at the end of the year.
Last week, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that even if the economic activity in the euro zone is expected to "significantly slow down", the European Central Bank will continue to raise borrowing costs. "We expect to raise interest rates further in the next few meetings to curb demand and prevent the risk of rising inflation expectations. Our future
The Bank of England took emergency measures last week to temporarily stabilize the exchange rate of the pound. According to the statement, the central bank will buy government bonds before 10, and postpone the sale of government bonds before 10 and 3 1. However, the risk has not completely disappeared. Many institutions believe that if the fluctuation occurs again, further intervention by the Bank of England will not be ruled out, and the next time may be in the form of unplanned interest rate hikes.
Related question and answer: What do you mean by non-agricultural data? Non-agricultural data refers to non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate. As the name implies, it is a data indicator reflecting the employment situation of non-agricultural population in the United States. These three data are released at 2 1:30 Beijing time (winter time:165438+1October-March) and 20:30 Beijing time (summer time: April-65438+1October) respectively. The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor.