With China significantly reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds this year, the US dollar began to rise strongly after the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, China's foreign exchange reserves have once again ushered in a large wave of exchange. Compared with the peak of $3.99 trillion, the latest data of China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of1/kloc-0 was $3.05 16 trillion. In the past two and a half years, China's foreign exchange reserves have entered a "weight loss" cycle. Then, by 20 17, how much foreign exchange reserves will China have left?

China's foreign exchange reserves

"Foreign exchange reserves are somewhat moderate, and there is no unified indicator. In the past, when foreign exchange reserves exceeded' 4 trillion', some people felt that there were too many foreign reserves, but when they fell to' 3 trillion', some people were not worried enough. " The relevant person in charge of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange told reporters that the market should pay more attention to whether the current foreign exchange reserves can continue to provide liquidity for the market and resist the impact of external risks, rather than a specific point.

"Judging whether foreign exchange reserves are healthy depends on whether they are appropriate. Too fat or too thin is actually unhealthy. " Xie, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, told China News Service that the International Monetary Fund has a set of methods to calculate the adequacy ratio of foreign reserves. According to the above method, if China is considered according to the fixed exchange rate system, it shows that China's suitable foreign exchange reserves are around 2.6 trillion US dollars. "The more foreign reserves, the better, and it is not unhealthy to fall."

Regarding the reserves outside China, Yang Ziya, executive director of China Institute of International Finance, said that $3 trillion is freely convertible currency (including highly liquid foreign exchange assets) held by China government, excluding foreign exchange and foreign exchange assets held by financial institutions, enterprises and individuals, and excluding other reserve assets held by China government. "What is there to worry about with such a huge foreign exchange reserve asset?"