AVIC Aircraft 000768
Research Institute: CITIC Securities Analyst: Feng Fuzhang Date of writing: 20 15-07-27.
Shareholders increase their holdings, demonstrating firm confidence.
Recently, Xifei Group responded to the call of central enterprises to jointly safeguard the capital market commitment letter, and continuously increased its holdings of 800,000 shares (accounting for 0.03 1%) of listed companies controlled by central enterprises that seriously deviated from their values. In addition, Lin Zuoming, Chairman of AVIC Group, shareholders and senior executives of AVIC Group increased their holdings in succession, showing their high recognition of the company's value.
Military aircraft: positioning the strategic air force, watching the mass production of Yun 20 in the future, and paying attention to the progress of long-range bombing.
The company is the only bomber and transport aircraft manufacturer in China. The main production models are Gunliu, Bao Fei, Yun 8 and Yun 20. China's military spending has maintained double-digit growth year after year, which is the premise of the steady growth of military aircraft demand. The positioning of the strategic air force, the change of the strategic policy of the air force with both air and space attack and defense, and the normal tension around it have strengthened the military's willingness to buy military aircraft. In the next three years, military aircraft orders will maintain a steady and rising trend.
Yun -20 is a new generation of heavy military transport aircraft independently developed by China. The total demand is expected to reach 400. The period from 20 15 to 20 17 will be a transition period from flight test to mass production. We expect delivery this year at the earliest. If 400 aircraft are equipped according to 10~ 15 (excluding export), the annual output can reach 20~30 in peak period, and the income of listed companies can be increased by 1 times during mass production period, and the net profit of listed companies can be increased by 2 times according to the net profit rate of 4%.
In the long run, the company is a potential manufacturer of long-range strategic bombers, and its progress in R&D, production and flight testing will boost the company's value expectations and promote the company's performance to continue to grow steadily.
Civil aircraft:/kloc-within 0/0 years, the company is expected to become the world's largest manufacturer of turboprop regional aircraft.
AVIC turboprop regional aircraft include xinzhou 60, Xinzhou 600 and Xinzhou 700 series under research. The demand of Xinzhou 60 bottomed out and the delivery progress was accelerated. At present, the operation of turboprop regional aircraft in China is not ideal. In the future, its market will be mainly exported to Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is expected that 15 turboprop regional aircraft will be delivered this year.
Aircraft spare parts: the profit of newly injected assets has increased steadily, and ARJ2 1 is about to increase.
The company undertakes a large number of aircraft parts manufacturing tasks, mainly including five aspects: First, the production of C9 19 and AG600 parts for large aircraft. Second, the manufacturing volume of ARJ2 1 is more than 85%; The third is the aircraft landing gear; The fourth is the aircraft braking system; Fifth, the international subcontracting production of spare parts. We believe that the injection of large aircraft assets is not credible; The performance of newly injected assets has grown steadily; Continuous delivery of subcontracted business exceeds expectations; ARJ2 1 Small batch delivery this year.
Performance forecast and valuation forecast.
From 20 15 to 20 17, the company realized earnings per share of 0.26 yuan, 0.33 yuan and 0.43 yuan respectively. Considering that the mass production of Yun -20 has brought great changes to the company's performance, and the development progress of the future long-range bomber prototype will boost the company's value expectation and give it a valuation premium. Maintain the buy rating.
AVIC Power: the leading aero-engine and the biggest beneficiary of the double-engine project.
AVIC electric power 600893
Research Institute: Northeast Securities Analyst: Wu Jiangtao Date of writing: 20 15-08-07.
Summary of the report: AVIC has entered a period of rapid development by absorbing and digesting aero-engine manufacturing resources. 20 14, AVIC integrated aero-engine assets into AVIC power. This asset injection extended the company's engine industry chain, expanded the pedigree model, realized the expectation of AVIC's asset injection, and clarified the overall reform idea of AVIC. We believe that after digesting and absorbing the underlying assets, the company will step into the fast lane of strengthening and expanding China aero-engine.
As a leading aero-engine in China, it will be the biggest beneficiary of the double-engine project. Among the three listed companies in the AVIC engine sector, AVIC Power is mainly responsible for the whole engine and maintenance business, and it is also the only aero-engine platform in China. The company is expected to enjoy the dividend brought by the rapid development of aero-engine industry. In view of the particularity of the industry, the major projects of "aero-engine and gas turbine" emphasized in the government work report are expected to benefit the high-quality enterprises in the industry first, and AVIC Power, as the industry leader, will be the biggest beneficiary.
Avic optoelectronics: high performance growth, global connector leader is expected.
Avic photoelectric 002 179
Research Institute: changjiang securities Analyst: Gao, Mo Wenyu Date of writing: 20 15-07-29.
Main points of report
Event description
On July 28th, 20 15, AVIC Optoelectronic released the semi-annual performance report: the company realized operating income of 2.207 billion yuan, up 49.80% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 256 million yuan, up 9 1.34% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share is 0.42 yuan.
Event review
The company's operating conditions were excellent in the first half of the year, and the performance of the interim report increased significantly. The improvement of the company's performance benefits from the rapid expansion of the market and the endogenous growth of its own business, including the growth of orders in the defense market, the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market and the gradual release of the company's production capacity.
Military orders constitute the growth center of company performance. Under the background of military equipment informatization, the demand for electrical connection devices and solutions products is expanding, and the orders are growing steadily. The future defense market will focus on the company's transformation from a single connector manufacturer to an integrated connection solution provider. We are optimistic that the company's future performance will continue to benefit from the rapid growth of military products.
The company is a supplier of core electrical connectors and wire harnesses for new energy vehicles, covering various domestic new energy vehicle factories such as Jianghuai, Yutong and BYD. Thanks to the substantial increase in domestic new energy vehicle shipments, the company's orders for related supporting products have doubled. The company has gradually extended from a single connector to system-level products such as wire harness and distribution box, and the value of bicycles is prominent.
The rest of the civilian growth is rail transit connectors. Shenyang Xinghua Huayi, a subsidiary of our company, is a leading manufacturer of rail transit in China. With the gradual improvement of management, this business has the ability to benefit from the rapid growth of rail transit industry. In addition, the company has shown steady growth in communication connection suppliers, and achieved breakthroughs in medical devices through Xiangtong Optoelectronics. We are optimistic about the prosperity of these areas.
AVIC Optoelectronics is the leader of this round of rebound, and its performance on the one hand represents the market competitiveness of the whole AVIC Group on the other hand. In the future, it is expected to become a global leader in the field of basic connectivity solutions, and the subsequent extension development will continue to be optimistic. To sum up, we maintain the company's "recommended" rating, and the EPS of 20 15-20 17 is 0.88, 1.2 1,1yuan.
Photoelectric unit: precise guidance, photoelectric first.
Photoelectric stock 600 184
Research Institute: Haitong Securities Analysts: Xu Zhiguo, Longhua, Xiong Zheying Date of writing: 20 15-06- 18.
Investment points:
Military products have achieved good results, stripped off non-performing assets and turned losses around in an all-round way The company is a secondary subsidiary of Ordnance Industry Group, and its current business covers photoelectric defense and photoelectric materials. Among them, photoelectric defense products mainly include: large weapon system, precision guidance seeker and photoelectric information equipment. Photoelectric materials mainly include optical glass and decorative glass. In 20 14 years, the company realized operating income of18.36 million yuan (5.34% year-on-year), net profit of 6184.54 million yuan (loss of 20 13 years1660,000 yuan), and the company divested 20/kloc. In terms of military products, the defense company achieved revenue of 654.38+45.3 million yuan (YOY7.02%), and its military performance grew steadily.
National defense+materials open the valuation space. Since the asset injection of 20 10 xiguang group, the order volume of the company's photoelectric defense business has continued to grow. In the field of large weapons and weapon systems, with the production of various assembly vehicles, the company's positioning in this field continues to be consolidated; In the field of precision guidance, the company's various types of products have been continuously expanded and developed, achieving breakthroughs in conventional weapons (missiles, artillery shells, etc.). ). Hubei Xinhuaguang Information Materials, a subsidiary, is mainly engaged in optical materials business. Due to the double decline in demand for digital cameras downstream of optical materials and traditional optical glass in recent years, the income of optical materials products has declined. Since 20 12, the company has gradually transformed its business and initially opened the door to the CCTV (monitoring system) market in 20 13. In addition, the company is increasing the development of high-end markets such as security and vehicle monitoring.
The assets of major shareholders are of high quality, and deposits are expected to be integrated. North Optoelectronic Group, the parent company of the company, is the only large-scale photoelectric industry sub-group under the ordnance group. 20 13 financial data shows that the total assets, net assets and operating income of the group are 3.32 times, 3.47 times and 2.4 1 times that of the company, respectively, and the assets are relatively high quality. Considering that the company is the only listed platform under the Group, the future is expected to be injected under the catalysis of the "no-forbidden zone" reform of the ordnance group.
Non-public offering enhances market confidence. At the end of 20 14, the company issued 45 million shares at the price of 27. 18 yuan/share to supplement the working capital. Among them, Zhongbing Investment, the only capital operation platform under the Ordnance Group, subscribed for 22.5 million shares, and Ordnance Finance subscribed for 9 million shares, accounting for 70%, with a lock-up period of 3 years. The fixed increase of group enterprises boosted market confidence.
"Give" a buy rating for the first time, with a target price of 42.00 yuan. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 20 15-20 17 will be 0.28, 0.4 1 and 0.5 1 yuan respectively. The photoelectric defense sector will become the most important driving force for the company to drive performance growth. Compared with the average valuation of listed companies in 20 15 years, the company is about 159 times. Considering the acceleration of the "no restricted area" reform of ordnance group, the company has the expectation of integration. We believe that the reasonable valuation range of the company in 20 15 years should be between 140- 160 times, and the median value is 150 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 42.00 yuan within 6 months, and the company will be given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the risk of technological upgrading and the uncertainty of reform.
Aerospace science and technology: high-tech listed companies
The company is a high-tech listed company which is controlled by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and issues A shares in China. The company's main business is the manufacture of aerospace and automotive electronic products, and other industries are household electronics, military electronics, aerospace solid launch vehicles, petroleum instruments and equipment, and power equipment. Many products of the company have won the national key new product certificate, national spark award, scientific and technological progress award and provincial and ministerial quality products.
Aerospace electronics: the improvement of profitability depends on the overall project or asset injection.
Aerospace electronics 600879
Research Institute: Cinda Securities Analyst: Pi Jianguo Date of writing: 20 15-03-06
The company's traditional business has encountered the problem of improving profitability. Due to the natural shrinkage of civilian products business, the company's performance is supported by aerospace military products business. TT&C communication, integrated circuit, inertial navigation and electromechanical components have a solid market share in the aerospace field. Thanks to the sustained and rapid development of China's aerospace industry, the growth rate of the company's operating income has remained above 65,438+05% in recent years, but the comprehensive gross profit margin of products has continued to decline. The supporting position of the company in the aerospace industry chain leads to its low bargaining power for downstream users, and it is impossible to solve the pressure of rising costs by raising prices.