? ? 1. Risk and insurance.
When it comes to insurance, we can still understand it in the old way. Let's look at the word insurance first. What words can we associate with the word risk? Danger, risk, accident, loss, injury, etc. We talked about the word risk before, risk = loss * possibility. If we can understand risk from this perspective, we can understand insurance well.
So you see, the risk can actually be passed on. Usually, some risks with low possibility but great loss will be passed on. And the transfer method here is usually insurance. Let's look at the word treasure again. What can it have to do with? Guarantee, guarantee, guarantee, compensation, a bit like a promise. We understand the word insurance together, which is to protect you from risks.
So why do I say this industry is interesting? Because if we understand that the origin of insurance comes from risk, from loss and possibility, we can do a lot of extended discussions. The author discusses it from three aspects. First, you will find that this incident is essentially a probability event, and people are risk-averse. If the loss is large but the probability is small, it is worth introducing insurance. What are the common words used by customers in the insurance industry? It's the premium and the insured amount. Premium refers to the money you need to pay for insurance, that is, insurance premium, and the insured amount refers to the amount you protect. Let's look at an example. If there is a deep pit with a small radius at the door of your community, everyone is worried that their children will fall in when they pass by. What would you do? It is very likely that we will raise funds together to fill this loophole. If the pit is filled with 50w, there will be 200 people, and each person will pay 2500 yuan. But if an insurance company comes at this time, I tell you that you only need to pay 3000 yuan, and if your child falls into the pit, I will pay you 40w. what do you think? Maybe you will be moved. We say that the first situation is to raise funds to eliminate the balance line of risks. At this time, the quantity and amount are fixed. If this is also a kind of insurance, the premium here is 2500, which is the guarantee cost covering this risk, and the insurance amount is the cost of filling the pit of the whole project.
So let's look at insurance again. What's the usual premium? Insurance premium = guarantee cost+expenses+investment. You will find that if everyone pays just enough money to fill this loophole, then the insurance premium becomes the lowest guarantee cost. And what kind of money does the insurance company earn? It is the probability spread, and it is the income of expenses and investments. The spread may come from the actuarial probability of the actuary and the realistic probability under complex conditions, and the probability difference * the quantity of a certain base * the amount = spread. Of course, it is necessary to combine complex conditions such as scenario, customer coverage, cycle, risk assessment probability, purchase possibility and so on.
So what does this mean? It means that all risks can be priced, but some areas have high probability and are not covered by insurance. Where there are risks, insurance can be calculated according to probability, period, environment and people. Travel has travel accident insurance, transportation has third-party liability insurance, medical insurance and work-related injury insurance in the medical field, old-age insurance in time dimension, unemployment insurance in case of unemployment, natural disaster insurance in case of typhoon, progress insurance of project progress and operation accident insurance in case of surgical treatment. It can be said that small probability events and big losses will have the shadow of the insurance industry. And insurance, from this perspective, is like a tool bucket, which contains different industries and fields. All insurance should be called "insurance+".
2. Insurance is essentially a positive sum game.
In fact, this incident inspired me a lot, except for the origin of risks. I also have some understanding of reverse thinking. What kind of system do we say insurance is? A group of people pay a company to make sure that something will not happen. What elements are there in it? Money, bookmakers, gambling will not happen. Let's think about it in reverse. We say that the system has three elements, elements, connection methods and goals. If we change the goal of this system, for example, a group of people pay the banker, but bet that something will happen. What is this thing? It is gambling, gambling, horse racing, lottery, fund-raising and crowdfunding. So, some people will take advantage of this. If the premium is low, it means that it is guaranteed. If the premium is normal, it means there is insurance. If the premium is high, it will easily become illegal fund-raising.
In other words, if you bet that something will happen, then there is a bet that it won't happen. You bought a bet and insurance over there. This means that as long as it is not an inevitable event of 100%, a small probability insurance category can be designed to help people hedge and avoid risks. Let me give you an example. As long as the effectiveness of condoms and contraceptives is not 100%, there will be insurance such as peace of mind insurance, and its composition will become Yuting's medicine fee+premium. Then if you are pregnant, the insurance company will compensate you, such as the cost of abortion. On the premise of adding a layer of premium profit to the product itself, he reformed himself, helped you solve the possibility of the final 1%, eliminated the worries of the buyer, and also solved the problem that the manufacturer could not guarantee the effectiveness of 100%. But it also means that some industries cannot introduce insurance, because at the same time, it is easy for customers to think that the products are unreliable, so insurance is introduced because there is no guarantee.
Why do I say that insurance is still a positive sum game? Let's review the zero sum, positive sum and negative sum games. The result of zero-sum game is that one side eats the other side, one side gains what the other side loses, and the interests of the whole society will not increase by one point. That is to say, "harm others and benefit themselves", while the negative sum game is to kill one thousand and lose eight hundred. Relatively speaking, the positive sum game is much smarter and is a win-win situation. So we mentioned at that time, how can we do a positive sum game? There are two ways, one is to expand the increment, and the other is to replenish the stock. You will find that insurance is actually a means to meet both conditions at the same time. Interestingly, some tricky things can be traded in the form of insurance by introducing a third party. It's risky for two people to trade. Buy insurance? This is not in line with the pricing law of insurance small probability events, and buyers still feel cheated. What should I do? Give it to a third party for management and pay after the transaction is completed? This is the mode of Alipay. In essence, it is an insurance with no premium and only the lowest guarantee cost. Just because it has a high probability of successful trading, there is no need to become insurance.
So you see, the author has made several discussions in reverse extension, and how interesting insurance is. The level of premium can evolve into Alipay and illegal fund-raising. Betting on one thing is gambling, betting on one thing that doesn't happen is insurance, and then putting it into the industry becomes insurance+.
Golden sentence and silver sentence 029:
The concept of 1. system:
The system consists of three parts: elements, connection methods and objectives. Changing elements does not change the system itself. Only by changing the connection mode and target brought by elements can the system be changed. For example, a football team, if the goal of winning becomes losing, the whole system will change. For example, you always fail in love. From the system point of view, if we only change the elements and do not change the target and connection mode, we will only repeat the failure.
2. The information environment determines your understanding benchmark.
There is a saying that your level is the average of the five people you contact the most. Because the people you contact most are your information environment, they will affect your opportunities, space and environment.
3. The process of making a decision is divergence and convergence.
The process of making decisions is divergence and convergence. Whether a decision is made well is actually the quality of divergence and convergence. Divergence means fatigue. We should define the scope and granularity of the discussion and connect them as much as possible. Cohesion is to string together clues, pain points, essence and solutions, and finally check objectively. This is a bit like our wrap decision-making method, which diverges first and then converges.