On September 29th, around 17: 25, the offshore RMB suddenly soared, and the RMB rose by 860 points against the US dollar in a very short time. The RMB soared by 1 0,000 points in just four hours from the highest point of the US dollar against the RMB on that day, and the Big bounce in the day also exceeded 1 654,38+0,000 points. From the short-term high point set on the 28th, the RMB soared as high as 1600 points.
What happened? Judging from the latest news, a report in Reuters about "stepping up efforts to curb RMB depreciation" may be the main reason for the rebound. But this report has not received an official response. However, on the evening of the 28th, the central bank made it clear that it would not bet on the unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and long-term gambling would lose.
Against the background of RMB's massive counterattack, the US dollar index has also been adjusted. But at this time, the yen has become a new target. Coupled with the "God's assistance" of the British Prime Minister, the US dollar index has since rebounded. Judging from the current global situation, it seems that the environment facing the whole market is still not very friendly. German inflation data hit a new high since the establishment of the euro zone, and Apple was downgraded.
After the initial jobless claims were announced, the US stock market faced a key attack, and the three major stock indexes collapsed across the board. As of Beijing time 1 1: 45, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.7%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 1.87%. Among them, Apple fell by 4.3 1%, and Tesla fell by 5. 14%.
Rmb counterattack
Around 29 17: 25 Beijing time, offshore RMB suddenly soared. In a short period of time, the RMB rose by 860 points against the US dollar, and the lowest position of the US dollar against the RMB reached 7. 1 140. From the highest point of USD against RMB on that day, RMB soared 1000 points in just four hours. After 22: 30 Beijing time on the 29th, the offshore RMB continued to rise strongly, reaching a minimum of 7.0985, and the Big bounce in the day exceeded 1 100.
Starting from the short-term high of RMB against 7.2673 set on the 28th, the RMB soared as high as 1600 points.
The reason why the RMB will launch a big counterattack may be driven by three aspects:
First, on the evening of the 28th, the central bank said that the current foreign exchange market is generally standardized and orderly, but there are also some phenomena such as "speculation in foreign exchange" by a few enterprises and illegal operation by financial institutions, so it is necessary to strengthen guidance and rectification. It must be recognized that the position of exchange rate is unpredictable and two-way floating is the norm. Don't bet on the unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, you will lose if you gamble for a long time;
II. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held a regular meeting in the third quarter of 2022. The meeting pointed out that deepening the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate, enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, guiding enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", strengthening expected management, and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Third, Reuters suddenly released an exclusive report, saying that efforts should be made to curb RMB depreciation. But this report has not received an official response. However, after the publication of this report, the RMB began to appreciate very quickly.
The construction of fundamentals is also working hard. On the evening of 29th, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the first set of local new housing loan interest rates before the end of 2022. For cities where the sales price of newly-built commercial housing continues to decline from June to August 2022, the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first suite will be relaxed by stages before the end of 2022. The lower limit of the interest rate policy for two sets of commercial personal housing loans shall be implemented according to the existing regulations. According to the principle of "making policy according to the city", the city governments that meet the above conditions can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the local first-home commercial personal housing loan interest rate according to the changes in the local real estate market situation and regulatory requirements, and the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission will send agencies to guide the provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism to cooperate with the implementation.
The yen will be hit again.
Last Thursday (September 22nd), the Japanese government entered the market to buy yen for the first time since 1998 in order to stabilize the exchange rate of the yen. Bank of America pointed out that according to the forecast of the change of the current account balance of the Bank of Japan's financial institutions and the relevant information of the money market, it is estimated that the Bank of Japan will use 3.6 trillion yen to intervene in the foreign exchange market last time, and it is believed that it can intervene in the foreign exchange market at most 10 times. On that day, the dollar fell 1. 15% against the yen, and the depreciation of the yen was greatly alleviated with the intervention of the Japanese government.
On that day, the RMB did not appreciate like the Japanese yen, and the subsequent depreciation continued to increase. Obviously, in the context of the official support for the yen, the renminbi has become the target of short-selling attacks. On the contrary, in the context of the RMB counterattack on Thursday, the yen has once again become the target of attack. On Thursday, the yen once fell more than 6,000 points, and the trend of the dollar against the yen continued to rise, which seemed to break through the previous high.
The above phenomenon may mean that players in the foreign exchange market are also playing a big game: their goal is to make a multi-dollar index and short the rest of the assets. This also means that the short market for non-US currencies will not end so soon. Even if many big countries take turns to shoot, it seems that there is still a lack of a mechanism to jointly inflate the dollar bulls.
Dollar bulls have a strong advantage. On Thursday night, Beijing time, the adjusted US dollar once again ushered in a positive trend: the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decline, recording 654.38+0.93 million, far below market expectations, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 654.38+0.347 million. This supports the Fed's view that the labor market is still quite strong and monetary policy needs to do more work. After the announcement of this news, the US dollar index DXY rose by 27 points in the short term, while the US stock index plummeted across the board in early trading. After the opening, the decline of US stocks continued to expand, with the Nasdaq falling to 3%, the Standard & Poor's 500 index falling by 2.4% and the Dow falling by 1.9%.
Trouble in Europe
The joint force mechanism mentioned above may not be so easy to form, mainly because Europe has relatively big troubles. After the outbreak of the pound crisis, despite the actions of the Bank of England, British Prime Minister Liz Trass is still defending the fiscal policy announced last week, saying that Britain has embarked on a "better track". This "defense" directly took the pound again.
Zhao, global market strategist of Jingshun Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), issued a report that the Bank of England intervened in the Phnom Penh bond market on the 28th to buy government bonds of the necessary scale. This intervention seems to have curbed the sell-off in the British bond market, while the lending institutions, pension funds and other debt-led investors behind it are facing margin requirements and serious liquidity shortage.
Zhao said that the injection of liquidity by the Bank of England may solve the urgent needs of the British financial system and may limit the short-term fluctuations of gilt-edged bonds and pounds. However, Britain is not out of danger. HuwPill, chief economist of the Bank of England, said that major monetary policies and measures are needed to deal with it. In addition, the market still expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 1 150 points at its meeting on October 3. As the mortgage interest rate is expected to increase, its interest rate may even increase substantially. This week's market turmoil and further interest rate hikes may hit economic growth, market confidence and household consumption.
The report said that it is hoped that the authorities will take more actions to enhance market confidence. The British government needs to launch a reliable fiscal plan to support long-term growth without pushing up inflation expectations, so as to consolidate the financial stability of the Bank of England. In short, the bank believes that the risk of major financial accidents in the short term has been reduced. Short-term market volatility may be reduced, but the market focus will return to the urgent macro challenges that major economies still face.
It is worth mentioning that on Thursday, September 29th, the data released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that the year-on-year initial value of CPI in Germany in September continued to climb from 7.9% in the previous month to 10%, higher than the expected 9.5%. After coordination, CPI rose by 8.8% year-on-year after last month, and rose again by 10.9% in September, which was higher than the expected 10.2%, and continued to hit a new high since the establishment of the euro zone.
The apple was attacked by air.
Another digression is worth mentioning (because exchange rate risk is also mentioned here): Apple fell by 2. 13% before the close on Thursday, after Bank of America analysts downgraded Apple's rating from buy to neutral. After the opening, Apple's share price plunged wildly, and the decline quickly expanded to more than 4%, which greatly dragged down the index.
According to the UK's financial situation, Bank of America pointed out that Apple's downside risks include: iPhone 14 cycle and the recent weakening of the service business track; If the overall unit price drops, the stronger Pro product series cannot offset the decline in unit price; Gross profit in dollar terms decreased; IPad and Mac are not performing well; Exchange rate pressure.
Bank of America believes that Apple's performance is far better than that of the big market, and it is "once again" in danger. Analysts at the bank reminded customers that Apple's share price "performed very well this year" because of its status as a "safe haven asset".
The analyst wrote in the report: "We see the risk of outperforming the market next year, because we expect that due to weak consumer demand (the service industry is already slowing down, and we expect physical goods to slow down)."
Bank of America also lowered Apple's target price from the previous $65,438+085 to $65,438+060 to reflect the expected downward adjustment. Analysts of the bank pointed out that the estimated revenue/earnings per share in 2023 was "significantly lower than the general expectation". Compared with general expectations. Bank of America analysts believe that the sales of iPhone and iPad are risky, and the sales of services and other products are slowing down.
The analyst pointed out that "although Apple's long-term prospects are still good, we believe that the risks of profitability and valuation are increasing in the short term."
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