What is the reason behind it? At the beginning of reform and opening up, there was a principle in our income distribution: giving priority to efficiency and giving consideration to fairness. China's early economic foundation was weak, so it was necessary to give priority to economic development and adopt an income distribution system with priority to efficiency, that is, getting rich first drives getting rich later.
Why should we pay attention to fairness, adjust income distribution and achieve common prosperity in today's economic development? There are several reasons:
First, our party's initial intention is to seek happiness for the people of China and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Income distribution is related to social stability and people's better life. If the income distribution is not solved well, the problem will be big.
Second, the current overall turmoil, social tears, populism, anti-globalization and trade protectionism in the United States are largely due to the fact that the national income gap in the United States has returned to the level of 100 years ago. Countries such as Latin America are caught in the middle income trap, which is largely related to this income distribution gap.
Third, in the first half of this year, China's GDP achieved a high growth rate. Economic recovery is dominated by large enterprises, but in China, small and micro enterprises are often the main force to solve employment problems.
Fourthly, the income pyramid of China is obviously characterized by a K-shaped recovery. The most obvious feature of K-shaped recovery is differentiation, that is, different regions, different industries, different departments, different enterprises and different people show significant imbalance from crisis to recovery.
How to value fairness? The government will definitely launch a series of public policies. At present, real estate regulation and control has been overweight round after round, with the aim of promoting the stable and healthy development of the industry. So, where is the real estate reform in China going? The author thinks that the most important thing is that the development of real estate should have a soft landing and avoid a hard landing.
A hard landing is costly and often hurts the economy. There are many cases of hard landing of real estate in the world, from the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 to the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan in the 1980s, which have had a great impact on a country's economic development. Especially in Japan, the self-confidence of the whole nation has been hit, and 20 years of golden years of development have been lost. The arrival of young people in the so-called low-desire society, aging and declining birthrate are all related to the hard landing of the real estate industry.
The author has a point: 10 crisis and 9 buildings. Real estate is the mother of the cycle, the largest industry in the national economy and the great wealth of residents. At present, the related investment driven by real estate accounts for more than 1/3 of China's fixed assets investment. Among residents' wealth, the stock market, housing market and bond market add up, and real estate accounts for more than 70%. In addition, bank loans to the real estate industry account for more than 0/3 of all bank loans. Therefore, real estate contributes a lot to the economy, but it also has risks, so it is very important to make it achieve a soft landing.
How to make a soft landing? I think there are two ways:
First, real estate needs time to change space. For example, in the year of 10, the national housing price is relatively stable, but the income and economy of residents are increasing, and the rising housing price can be digested through slow development. If the policy is rushed, the risk will be very great, and if it is not handled well, our own "subprime mortgage crisis" may break out.
The second is to use the market method. First, establish the development strategy of urban agglomeration. In the future, China's overall economic development will focus on the metropolitan area. Secondly, people and land are linked together. When people come, they will provide land to match the land with the population.
The author suggests establishing a national land index mobile trading market nationwide to realize the optimal allocation of resources and the balance between supply and demand. To put it simply, for example, if someone moves from the northeast to Shenzhen, then the land use index will be allocated to Shenzhen. Under the premise of large-scale population mobility, it is necessary to establish a national auction market for land use indicators.
In short, to achieve a soft landing of China real estate, the regulation of real estate must not be rushed.