I chatted with five people who spent tens of billions and found the direction worthy of investment in the automobile circle.

Writing an article? /? Text? wisecrack

Editor? /? Niujishang

Design? /? Zhao Haoran

Standing on the tuyere, pigs can fly. The point is, where is the tuyere?

People are always thinking about where the opportunities for making money are. Simply put, if you grasp the correct trend, you will have the password of future wealth.

From 2065438 to 2008, the automobile market entered an inflection point. A few years ago, the new forces in full swing were completing a round of elimination, and the epidemic situation in COVID-19 intensified, which hit the social economy hard. These uncertainties pose a great challenge to the wisdom and courage of investors, but crises and opportunities never go hand in hand.

In 2020, new words such as energy revolution, information revolution, traffic revolution and smart city frequently appear in the automobile field. Behind the industrial transformation are changes in consumer demand, technological progress, the development trend of automobile industry and national economic policies.

In May this year, "new infrastructure" was written into the government work report for the first time. Seven core areas, such as 5G, UHV/ power Internet of Things, high-speed rail/rail transit, new energy vehicles/charging piles, cloud computing/data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet, have become the important pillars of the digital economy and shoulder the heavy responsibility of high-quality economic development in China.

Under the guidance of the policy, the attention of industry and capital market to the new economy has also continued to heat up, and all provinces in China have successively launched new infrastructure construction plans with a total amount of over 50 trillion.

At the same time, with the deepening of intelligence and networking and the maturity of autonomous driving technology, cars have become the next most promising intelligent terminal equipment after personal computers and mobile phones. This year, the running of the automobile industry has entered the first year of intelligent landing.

The car, a simple means of transportation from point A to point B, has become a large mobile terminal, adding a computer on the basis of four wheels and a sofa. Although the appearance has not changed much, the internal upgrade has made cars smarter. The popularity of smart cars needs the support of the whole industry chain, which contains unlimited business opportunities.

In fact, from the development history of the automobile industry, every progress of automobile technology and important breakthrough of products is the result of close cooperation between vehicle and parts enterprises. Vehicle companies have made great contributions to technology integration, but most of the core technologies and key components come from component companies, such as gasoline injection, supercharger, anti-lock braking, airbags, radial tires and so on.

The new smart car "this computer" is also taking this route. Chip, sensor, electric drive system ... The complex structure of "computer" has brought a new industrial chain, from which countless enterprises are and will soon be derived. Chen Qingtai, chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, once pointed out that "the bottom of smart cars is smart parts". From the direction, autonomous driving and car networking in the field of smart cars are two main lines.

It is worth mentioning that while the new technology transforms the car into a new species, the use and application scenarios of the car have also undergone tremendous changes. In addition to new energy automobile products, new investment opportunities have begun to appear in many fields such as new travel, new retail, new technologies and new applications.

The future is coming at an extraordinary speed. In any field, capital is the most indispensable part to promote technological change and industry progress. And these investors who stand at the forefront and look for opportunities from the big era, their views and opinions are worthy of reference.

On the first day of the 12th Blue Book Forum on Autopilot, Liu Weihong, co-founder and chief operating officer of Black Sesame Intelligent Technology, Yu Ning, managing partner of Weilai Capital, Yu Kai, founder and CEO of Horizon, Li Yifan, vice president of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Jin Zhi, senior vice president of Little Information, held a round-table discussion under the auspices of Liu Baohua, editor-in-chief of auto business review.

From the whole international situation, economic trends, government policies and industrial development trends, they found the direction that they think is most worth investing in.

Yu Ning believes that the most worthwhile investment direction of the automobile industry is smart cars, smart roads and services. "In front of the investment scale of 50 trillion yuan, more than half of them are closely related to smart transportation such as cars, roads and yards." He believes that when new infrastructure collides with the new four modernizations, when intelligent transportation meets autonomous driving, and when cars, roads and fields overlap, it will bring new development opportunities.

In Yu Kai's view, the ability of the new enterprise PK OEM lies in the software ability, and the following chips and modules are made into a combination of software and hardware, which are provided to the OEM. In the future, in the field of intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving, there will be a series of new first-class suppliers with typical differentiation characteristics of software genes.

Li Yifan has participated in many important investments of Geely, and he hopes to contribute to the progress of the industry. He should be able to open some channels in the industrial chain through the relationship between upstream and downstream. Although he doesn't know what the world will be like tomorrow, he hopes that Geely Automobile will change with the change of the world.

"Although we are positioned as a non-holding financial investor from the perspective of capital, unlike traditional financial investors, we hope to build a singing stage for entrepreneurs with the help of the strength of the industry and the resources of the OEM." Li Yifan said.

Liu Weihong gave the direction from a higher angle. He said that the automobile industry is very large and is now developing in the direction of "new four modernizations". In a word, go with the flow, go with the flow. From the battery, energy management and sharing, from the car itself, automotive electronics, chips, we must follow a general trend to make decisions, and the time window is also very important.

"The future development trend, in addition to smart brains, needs more cameras, more perception, more integration and more computing power." Liu Weihong said that although software development in the automotive field is a definite general trend, "soft and hard must be combined well, and both soft and hard are not enough."

Starting from its own platform, Jin Zhi said that the most vital thing since ancient times is content. No matter how technology develops, our brains have a demand for aesthetics and good content.

The following is the content of this discussion compiled by auto business review, which is slightly abridged here.

In two years, the return is about 12 and 13 times.

Liu Baohua (editor-in-chief of auto business review): This is the last one today, and it may be the most crucial one. The theme of this is investment. Many company leaders are very happy today, but if the investment and financing quit, they will be unhappy. Investment, like human blood, may be more important than oil in industry. This is a key topic.

This character collocation is also wonderful and interesting. Most of the best M&A investment projects in the history of China's automobile industry were completed by two of them, such as Geely's investment in Daimler and American Flying Automobile Company; Several others also have deep qualifications and capital.

Let's follow the logic of the topic, first there is the capital side, then there is the main engine factory, then there is the technology company, and then there is the content company.

Mr. Yu Ning, let's get the most important question straight first. What is the automobile industry now? Where is the investment direction of the automobile industry? Please make a list for us first and see if the guests behind can break through your scope.

Stick to several big tracks and directions in investment, and then find the smartest and most capable team, which will have better returns.

—— Yu Ning, managing partner of Weilai Capital

Yu Ning (managing partner of Weilai Capital): I just gave a speech, one is smart car, the other is the road of wisdom, and the other is the service field. The most important thing for smart cars is self-driving, including L3 trucks, L4 that many people talk about, and L5 that may eventually come, as well as self-driving chips, which are huge trillion-dollar investment markets.

Another smart car includes an intelligent cockpit inside; The road of wisdom, in which the government should play a more important role, mainly the unification of standards will accelerate this process.

As a bicycle wisdom, Tesla has developed very fast. In fact, China has a great advantage different from the United States, that is, the institutional advantage. You can concentrate on doing great things, and it is easier to realize the automatic driving of L4 or L5 through the cooperation of vehicles and roads.

The last one is the service field, which I proposed. Around the service field, including cameras, power exchange and so on.

Stick to several big tracks and directions in investment, and then find the smartest and most capable team, which will have better returns. Now the performance of investment, the best two-year investment has been 12, 13 times the return.

Earned or lost?

Liu Baohua: The second representative of OEM. Now, most of the investment is in start-ups. Why did Geely invest in an old man's enterprise on 18 and Daimler on 130? What is your logic?

Li Yifan (Vice President of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd.): I am in charge of Geely's industrial investment fund. From an ecological point of view, I may pay more attention to start-ups and technology-based enterprises, which represent the future trend. In addition, from the perspective of industry, the coordinated development of OEM and resources is also a starting point for our investment in Daimler.

130 years ago, after Mercedes-Benz built the world's first car, the shape of the car remained basically unchanged. This is what our chairman Li Shufu said. To make a car is four wheels and two sets of sofas. However, in the next 18 and 15 years, there will be great changes in the format of the whole car. Gradually, there will be no people, no drivers, or something new will appear, which will change the way of travel. This is part of the lifestyle and there are some revolutionary changes.

In this process, the cooperation between OEMs is very important. Because there are many emerging technologies and business models, it is impossible for an OEM or a company to win the world, and no one can do it.

I remember two days after we bought Daimler, I accompanied Chairman Li Shufu on a road show in Germany, not a commercial road show, but a political road show. I have met all the governments in Germany, including the federal government and the state government, from the ruling party, the opposition party to the trade union. We expounded our ideas over and over again. We think we are not competing or eliminating competition, but cooperating.

I remember it clearly at that time, that was two and a half years ago. At that time, Apple's market value was more than 600 billion US dollars, and Google's market value was more than 800 billion US dollars. Now Apple has reached $2 trillion.

At that time, we said that we should face these emerging forces. I joked that they were barbarians at the door and might be hit by dimensionality reduction in the future. When they have mastered the operating system, algorithms, etc., all automobile factories now, like all mobile phone factories now, are, in the final analysis, a foundry.

We don't want to see this happen, so we should do something together. To answer your question, this is the starting point for us to become the largest shareholder of Daimler. We are now in an era of cooperation.

Liu Baohua: Are you profitable or losing money?

As for whether the finance is losing money or making money, I think I can say responsibly that if Daimler goes bankrupt today, there will be no Daimler company in the world tomorrow, and we will basically get away with it.

—— Li Yifan, Vice President of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd.

Li Yifan: In this project, we are a strategic investment. Regardless of profit or loss, we will always be a long-term shareholder of Daimler. I can't use permanent shareholders, which was also said at the annual general meeting of shareholders. Actually, I've been talking for three years. As for whether the finance is losing money or making money, I think I can say responsibly that if Daimler goes bankrupt today, there will be no Daimler company in the world tomorrow, and we will basically get away with it.

I bought two stocks.

Liu Baohua: It is right to invest in the old aristocracy. Now the upstarts are also very powerful, such as Tesla. Our logic has turned back again. First, the main office in Yu Kai. We talked to you last year. Tesla, didn't the Japanese tear down a model? 3? I feel that the gap with Toyota is six years. You said you were particularly impressed by this incident. How much impact do you think this has on China cars?

Supercomputers on four wheels, I think this is an inevitable trend. There is a high probability that this matter will not run away, and it must be a bigger industry than smartphones.

——? Yu Kai, founder and CEO of Horizon

Yu Kai (founder and CEO of Horizon): Tesla, especially Model? The birth of 3 can actually benchmark the impact of Apple's launch of the first generation iPhone on the whole industry in 2007. Before the emergence of smart phones, functional phones were indifferent to chips and operating systems. At that time, only one manufacturer wrote software vertically, and there was no separation between software and hardware. There were so many open ecosystems of apps.

In the past, this car was very much like a functional car. The chips are all small, about 100 ECU, with high coupling, unable to upgrade, and very single function. The software is not separated from the hardware, so it is impossible to continuously update the software, improve the user experience and define new functions.

But it's different now. The central electronic and electrical architecture, chip and operating system, Tesla completely showed this thing to the industry end to end. Both Toyota and Volkswagen saw it and thought, Wow, that's it!

Bosch in Germany talked about the evolution of electronic and electrical architecture many years ago. Everyone understands the truth, but at that time, everyone thought that it would be realized on a large scale in 2025, including software-defined cars. They thought it was a distant thing, but Tesla made it perfect on 20 19. In addition, they developed their own chips and operating systems, just like Apple. It reproduces Apple's style of play from hardware and software, which is an inspiration to everyone.

What we have to think about is, is this an accidental phenomenon or an inevitable trend? Whether our product definition, organization, culture and talents should keep up, I personally think this is a revolutionary change, including when I started my own business. (20) 15 left Baidu and founded Horizon. Because we foresaw such a future, we made smart chips for cars.

When I was in Baidu, I was in charge of the whole autonomous driving. At that time, I opened the trunk of the car and saw all kinds of machines inside, and the lines were dense. After driving for a while, I had to stop somewhere in the shade to cool off. This is completely unimaginable. Real smart cars must move from software to hardware, and make chips for cars.

Today's topic is investment. I don't know what it has to do with investment. When I started my business five years ago, I bought two stocks, one is NVIDIA and the other is Tesla. At that time, Tesla was about $20 billion, and now it is $260 billion and $270 billion. Including my first investor, I bought it myself because I heard my story. He told me later, fortunately, I bought it at that time.

Supercomputers on four wheels, I think this is an inevitable trend. There is a high probability that this matter will not run away, and it must be a bigger industry than smartphones. Why are we all gathered in this place so late today? It is because everyone agrees with this direction. Tesla is still great. It is really the apple of the automobile industry.

Content is the most vital.

Liu Baohua: Let Director Yu Kai analyze it and analyze it in his own company. Now Mr Wei Hong continues to talk about Tesla. He just said that the chip is very powerful and has an electronic and electrical architecture, which is a revolutionary change compared with the original. You started as a car, and now you are a technology company. This aspect should be particularly easy to understand. Let me share it with you.

In the future development trend, chips need more cameras, more fusion, more positioning, decision-making, control, some computing power support and low power consumption besides intelligent brains.

-Black Sesame Intelligent Technology

Co-founder and Chief Operating Officer Liu Weihong

Liu Weihong (COO, co-founder of Black Sesame Intelligent Technology): I should be an old autobot. I have worked in two automobile companies, General Motors and Bosch. I have worked in Bosch for a long time and experienced great changes. The industry is also undergoing tremendous changes and developing in the direction of "four modernizations".

By the way, before chatting, I left Bosch four years ago and founded Black Sesame Intelligent Technology. The label that the company can label is artificial intelligence+chip+autonomous driving. In the past four years, we have launched two chips, which are currently in a leading position in the industry.

Fortunately, our chip has entered the stage of landing cooperation with two head OEMs, and has also cooperated with a top global component supplier in vehicle routing, expanding the new field of chips.

We believe that in the future development trend, chips need more cameras, more fusion, more positioning, decision-making, control, some computing support and low power consumption besides intelligent brains.

Liu Baohua: Which areas have better growth prospects, better development and larger space? In addition to the hard technology just mentioned, in fact, each of us is not only exposed to these hard technologies and equipment, but also to softer ones, such as content, which is often combined with automobiles and hardware to create new fields. Chief Jinye, can you share, I know what you do?

We don't have to let you choose. According to the personal trajectory data and the time environment at that time, we will push such content while driving. This is our vision.

-Jin Zhi, Senior Vice President of Information.

Jin Ye (Senior Vice President of Little Information): I am a big coffee maker in the automobile industry. What is my content company doing here? First of all, I come from a little information. Simply put, it is a content distribution platform, which pushes the content that users like to watch, whether it is graphics, text, audio or video, to their hands through algorithms.

I put the guest's words at the top. A car is just four wheels and two sofas. About ten years ago. Now I add a computer to the smart car. How did we get the content before the computer appeared? We used to get it through newspapers and magazines, then through computers and then through mobile phones.

In the case that the car is so intelligent, we hope that the users in the car can also enjoy good graphics, audio and video. Someone mentioned Tesla just now. Why did you have a good experience? It is a combination of software and hardware. The most vital thing since ancient times is content. No matter how technology develops, our brains have a demand for aesthetics and good content.

What do you want to do with a little information? In addition to chip and car design, we think that the content distribution on the car that users can think of is also a very noteworthy field. In addition to having our own APP, we also provide content for the four major mobile phone manufacturers, with a market share of 90% in China. We can use the same principles and algorithms to provide such content to automobile manufacturers.

Through the algorithm, you want to listen to Degang Guo's cross talk when you drive in the morning, and you may have to put an cartoon or something educational when you pick up your children from school at night. We don't have to let you choose. According to the personal trajectory data and the time environment at that time, we will push such content while driving. This is our vision.

The form of cars is changing.

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