Senior Research Fellow, China Nanhai Research Collaborative Innovation Center? Professor Cheng Hanping
Associate Professor zhou yuan, Special Commentator
Shi Ning, host of military intelligence observation program.
Background: India will hold its first joint naval exercise with Vietnam at the end of this month. It is said that this is a major step in India's so-called "eastward advancement" policy and marks the continuous warming of relations between India and Vietnam. India sent a small fleet of three warships this time. According to the latest news, these three warships are on their way to Vietnam. Today, we are following with you the news that India and Vietnam will hold the first joint maritime military exercise.
Q: First of all, we see that the first joint maritime military exercise between India and Vietnam is an important step in India's so-called "eastward advancement" strategy. What is India's so-called "eastward advancement" strategy? What is the pertinence? Please analyze it for us first.
Professor Cheng:
India's eastward strategy began in the early 1990s. Originally called looking east, it means looking east. We also call it looking east. The original intention of this strategy is that India extends its strategy to the East. In the past twenty-five years, India's eastward strategy has been continuously expanded, and it has experienced the upgrading from economy to security, from bilateral to multilateral, from ASEAN to East Asia, and then to Asia-Pacific. During the Rao government, India's economic growth rate reached 7% to 8%. Another is that India successfully conducted a nuclear test in 1998 and signed a civil nuclear agreement with the United States. In India's view, its status as a nuclear power is indisputable, which makes up for a nuclear shortcoming as a world-class power. Another is the rapid rise of China in recent years, major geopolitical changes have taken place in the balance of Asian power, and the structural contradictions between China and the United States have gradually deepened. Therefore, India believes that its role as a balancer is once again prominent. Therefore, from being ignored during the Cold War to now becoming an aspect that the United States, Japan and ASEAN are competing to win over, India believes that its strategic position is rising rapidly and needs to show its status as a big country. So the eastward policy has a new meaning for India. This new meaning is also reflected in several aspects:
First, it can help India to jump out of the so-called "South Asian bathtub" and integrate into the economic and political core of Asia, namely East Asia, to achieve real strategic expansion and space expansion.
Second, it can promote the sustainable development of India's economy, because the hottest region in the whole economy is in the Asia-Pacific region at present, which can also ensure the rise of India itself, especially after the Asian storm, India thinks it is necessary to look at the whole Asia-Pacific region, not just ASEAN.
Another is the rise of China's power, which makes India realize that it must compete with China for geographical influence in this region, so these three new meanings make India turn east to east. This is the significance of moving eastward, which is a fundamental reason for India. I think India has gradually extended its perspective and tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. For example, the military exercise with Singapore and this joint exercise with Vietnam are all actions under this strategy.
Q: For the first joint military exercise between India and Vietnam, India sent three warships. Please ask military fans to predict what subjects India and Vietnam may conduct in this joint military exercise. How much exercise will there be?
Professor Yuan:
The first maritime joint military exercise between India and Vietnam is one of the important measures of India's eastward strategy just mentioned by Professor Cheng. Therefore, both India and Vietnam attach great importance to this joint military exercise at sea, so the scale and what will be performed are also of great concern to our military fans. First of all, as far as the scale of the exercise is concerned, I think the scale of the joint maritime military exercise between India and Vietnam will be moderate, not too big, but not too small. Judging from the current clear information, India has sent three warships and is on its way to Vietnam. They are Indian stealth missile frigate Shahaiyari, anti-submarine frigate Camol Tower and supply ship Shakti, with more than 1000 officers and men on board.
Among them, Shahaiyari is a stealth missile frigate made in India, with a displacement of more than 6,000 tons, while Camol Tower is the first ship of P28 light anti-submarine frigate made in India, with a displacement of 2,500 tons. Generally speaking, these two fleets are not small. The corresponding Vietnamese navy's participation forces may include the purchase of Russian cheetah-class frigates and Kilo-class submarines. Because it is the first military exercise between the two countries, both sides attach great importance to it, so this scale is expected, but because it is the first contact and there is no experience in joint military exercises, it is impossible to make much noise if you want to cross the river by feeling the stones. In the future, with the deepening of military cooperation between the two countries, I think the scale of the joint maritime military exercise between India and Vietnam may become larger and larger. In the future, India may take the initiative to send its aircraft carrier "Vikla Matiya" to Vietnam for joint military exercises. Judging from the types of ships that the two sides participated in this military exercise, I think it is more likely to conduct joint naval containment drills, joint anti-submarine drills and joint search and rescue drills at sea, and it is also possible to hold some small-scale joint landing drills. However, as far as the current participating troops are concerned, this possibility is not too great, because the guarantee involved in joint landing is very complicated, and the possibility of joint landing between the two countries in the early stage of joint military exercises is relatively small. As for the specific content of their rehearsal, I think it needs further observation.
Background: Admiral Harris, the outgoing commander of the US Pacific Command, recently received a high-level delegation composed of Philippine Defense Minister Lorenzana, Foreign Minister Kayatano and Interior and Local Affairs Minister Haguenau. The US Pacific Command publicly claimed that Admiral Harris and Philippine officials reaffirmed their commitment to the common interests and friendly relations of long-term partners and allies, but did not mention the specific topics discussed by the two sides. What did these senior military and political officials in the Philippines send a delegation to the US Pacific Command to talk about? Let's follow the news with you.
Q: Philippine President Duterte recently made public anti-American remarks and actively started dialogue and strengthened cooperation with China. However, the Philippine military has been trying to maintain its alliance with the US military. Even though Malawi received military assistance from China in the war on terrorism, the Philippine military conducted a larger joint military exercise with the US military. What is the reason?
Professor Yuan:
The Philippine military has always maintained close military relations with the United States. In the context of the continuous development of China-Africa relations, he is also committed to promoting the United States and the Philippines to hold a larger joint military exercise. Obviously, this is extremely inconsistent with the mainstream of the development of China-Africa relations and is a discordant note. I think the main reasons are as follows:
First of all, the Philippines has a strong dependence on the United States in military security. We all know that after the end of World War II, the United States and the Philippines signed the United States-Philippines Joint Defense Treaty, and the Philippines became an ally of the United States in name, but in fact it was a new colony of the United States. The Philippines also relies entirely on the United States for national defense and security, which makes it unnecessary for the Philippines to worry about its own security problems. Although its military strength is very weak, it has long been heavily dependent on the United States for security because of its support behind it. Today, the military strength of the Philippines is still very weak, so I really dare not give up this military dependence on the United States for the time being.
Secondly, there are relatively strong pro-American forces within the Philippine military. Prior to this, the pro-American forces of the Philippine military were the initiators of the troubles in the South China Sea and our China. The current Philippine Defense Minister Lorenzana, these people are representatives of the pro-American forces in the Philippines, and their existence has contributed to strengthening the close relationship between the Philippine military and the United States.
Thirdly, the Philippines also hopes to gain a balance of interests among big countries by strengthening military relations with the United States, so as to gain more chips in its diplomacy with China, which is also the usual practice of small country diplomacy.
When asked about the visit of the Philippine defense minister, foreign minister, minister of interior and local government affairs, and the head of the civilian department of the presidential palace to the US Pacific Command, neither the US military nor the Philippines disclosed the contents of the visit and exchange, and even the spokesman of the Philippine Department of Defense said that everyone could speculate on all possible topics. So what's your guess? What do you think of the composition of the Philippine high-level delegation this time?
Professor Cheng:
This time, he went to internal affairs, diplomacy, national defense and local governments. Judging from the composition of the people he went to, he didn't go for purely foreign affairs, nor was it a military topic, but a systematic problem. Although Philippine President Duterte keeps making such anti-American remarks and actively maintains the balance with big countries, in fact, the Philippine military has been striving to maintain its alliance with the US military. I think this trip mainly has three aspects:
First, time is very sensitive. It happens that we are stepping up this cruise in the South China Sea. For example, we bombed 6K, and the program we did yesterday bombed 6K and took off and landed normally on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The take-off and landing effect this time is very obvious. At this time, officials from the Philippines' military diplomacy, national defense and other internal affairs visited the Pacific Command of the United States to let the outside world think that these two things may have a certain relationship.
Second, there have been personnel changes in the US Pacific Command recently. With Harris, the former commander, being nominated as the ambassador to Korea and being replaced by a new one, the Philippines, as a military ally with the United States, needs to make contact with the new commander.
Thirdly, last month, the Philippines and the United States signed an agreement called "Strengthening Defense Cooperation". This agreement on strengthening defense cooperation requires the establishment of military facilities in the Philippines, which involves local affairs, so the officials of internal affairs, diplomacy, national defense and local affairs should be related to this. The United States once claimed that these military facilities in Southeast Asia could provide all-round security assistance to the Philippines in time if they faced maritime conflicts, so this gave the Philippine military great hope. So I think the focus of this trip is this matter, that is to say, strengthening the construction of military facilities stipulated in the defense cooperation agreement. I think it should be closely related to this. Of course, the other two things also have this meaning, but they may also happen to be a side door.