20 16 The coming year is the first year of the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and it is also a crucial year to promote structural reform. How to promote the supply-side structural reform? How should macroeconomic policies escort structural reforms? ..... Starting from today, this edition will launch a series of reports focusing on how to change structural reforms.
Recently, the supply side has been on fire.
In current political reports, "supply side" has become a high-frequency hot word. The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference proposed that more attention should be paid to supply-side structural reform.
The WeChat circle of friends is also discussing the "supply side". When friends came back from abroad, they dried their bags and watches ... After the praise, everyone lamented that the sweeping of goods abroad was largely due to our "supply side" not keeping up.
What is the supply-side structural reform?
It aims to increase the potential growth rate and promote the sustainable development of the economy.
What is the supply side? The well-known "troika" of investment, consumption and export belongs to the three major needs of the demand side from an economic point of view; The corresponding supply side focuses on the supply and effective utilization of production factors.
Pan, deputy director of the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "Unlike focusing on stimulating the demand-side troika to stimulate economic growth, the supply-side reform emphasizes efforts from the supply side, advocates encouraging enterprise innovation and structural upgrading, and reduces the tax burden of enterprises, so as to promote the improvement of economic supply capacity and promote long-term sustainable economic development."
"Demand side management is more about solving short-term problems. In the environment of short-term economic fluctuation, it aims to make the actual economic growth rate as close as possible to the immediate potential growth rate. If the economy is too cold, it will stimulate demand. Supply-side reform focuses on solving long-term problems and fundamentally promoting potential growth rates. " Pan said that it is generally believed that labor, capital, resources, structural changes, technological innovation and institutional innovation are the six major factors affecting the potential growth rate. Among them, institutional innovation is mainly from the macro level. Among all these factors, reform is the most basic one in China's economy at present. It can not only make the input structure and growth of factors more reasonable, guide the optimization of economic structure, but also promote the enhancement of technological innovation, thus comprehensively improving the total factor productivity.
For example, more specific. To promote the sales of household appliances, the idea of demand side management is to introduce policies such as "home appliances going to the countryside", "trade-in" and energy-saving subsidies to encourage people to spend more; The idea of supply-side reform is to reduce the burden on home appliance manufacturers, encourage enterprises to develop new products and innovate sales models. Meet or even create demand and stimulate consumption. Therefore, some experts compare demand side management to "western medicine" that suits the right medicine and takes effect quickly; Supply-side reform is compared to a dose of "Chinese medicine" that can cure the root cause of the disease.
What is structural reform? Pan said: structural reform is to make our economic structure more coordinated through reform. The supply-side structural reform simply means improving the supply environment, enhancing the supply power, improving the supply efficiency and optimizing the supply structure, thus promoting more stable, coordinated and sustainable economic growth.
Supply-side reform and demand-side management are not an either-or relationship. "While moderately expanding the total demand, we should pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system. Decentralization, tax reduction and state-owned enterprise reform can all be understood as supply-side structural reforms. The five development concepts put forward in the 13 th Five-Year Plan are essentially supply-side structural reforms. " Pan said:
Why emphasize supply-side reform now?
It reflects the change from paying attention to short-term economic growth to sustainable development.
Strengthening supply-side structural reform is the only way to alleviate the current contradiction between supply and demand in China's economy. Taking the current economy of China as an example, from the demand side, the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment both declined during the period of1-1,and the export continued to decline year-on-year. At the same time of insufficient demand, demand spillover is obvious, and Haitao and overseas purchasing are booming. On the other hand, the trend of demand upgrading is obvious, and the consumption of telecommunications, culture, entertainment and old-age care is growing rapidly, and there is a huge space for green, fashionable and quality consumption. From the supply side, China has both overcapacity in low-level industries and insufficient effective supply of high-quality products and services.
Chi Fulin, president of China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, said that the lag of the supply side has caused the current contradiction between supply and demand to be prominent. Supply not only cannot keep up with the trend of demand upgrading, but also lacks the ability to create new consumption and new impetus for economic development. It is urgent to improve the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure through reform.
Only by strengthening the supply-side structural reform can we solve the deep-seated contradictions and problems that restrict China's economic development. At the 15th China Economic Forum held a few days ago, Zhang Tai, deputy director of the Department of Industry and Transportation of the Research Office of the State Council, said that demand-side management could not solve the obstacles to the free circulation of production factors and commodities across the country, a large number of excess capacity and economic structural problems, and more efforts should be made to supply-side structural reforms to lay the foundation for steady and rapid economic growth.
Focusing on strengthening the supply-side structural reform is an inevitable requirement to adapt to the new normal of China's economic development. "Entering the new normal, China's economy is facing a series of structural contradictions and problems. These contradictions and problems are on the demand side and more on the supply side. The core is the institutional mechanism. Resolving the supply-side structural contradictions through reform is an inevitable choice for China's economy in the new stage. " Chi Fulin said.
"From emphasizing demand-side management to emphasizing supply-side structural reform, it reflects the transformation of economic work thinking from focusing on short-term economic growth to focusing on sustainable development and improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth." Pan said:
How does the supply-side reform work?
Supply-side reform is a delicate task that requires hard work, patience, confidence and determination.
Pan said that the main problem facing China's economy at present is the structural problem of supply. Next year and for a period to come, while moderately expanding the total demand, efforts should be made to strengthen the supply-side structural reform.
Judging from many factors affecting the potential growth rate, the working-age population in China is declining. It will take some time to implement the comprehensive two-child policy, delay retirement, strengthen education and improve the quality of the labor force. There is not much room for the investment of resources and capital to improve the potential economic growth rate in the short term-serious overcapacity restricts investment growth, and resources and environment form a long-term bottleneck constraint.
In Pan's view, there are three ways to improve the supply capacity: first, continue to promote the new urbanization process with people's urbanization as the core; The second is to promote the gradual transfer of industries from the east to the central and western regions, and pay attention to combining local resource endowments during the transfer process to form characteristic industrial clusters; The third is to encourage innovation. "The core is institutional innovation, including activating private capital by breaking monopoly and lowering the threshold for private capital to enter important industries, and activating land resources through land system reform; Giving full play to the efficiency of funds and effectively reducing the financing cost of enterprises through financial reform are all ways to give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation in all aspects, thus improving the efficiency of marketization. " Pan said:
Judging from the current situation, the supply-side structural reform should give priority to solving several key problems such as de-capacity, cost reduction, de-inventory, short-boarding, and de-leverage.
The first is to resolve overcapacity. "Now to resolve overcapacity, we must start from the supply side, promote industrial upgrading, and resolutely eliminate zombie enterprises." Pan said: In addition, to promote de-capacity, it is necessary to further promote market-oriented mergers and acquisitions, re-integrate productivity through advantageous enterprises, and improve the supply efficiency of the whole industry.
The second is to reduce the cost of enterprises. To reduce the cost of enterprises in the real economy, it is necessary to play a "combination boxing" to reduce the institutional transaction cost, tax burden and financial expenses of enterprises. What needs special attention at present is how to effectively reduce the social security fees paid by enterprises.
The third is real estate destocking. At present, the inventory of the property market is relatively large, one of the major reasons is the structural dislocation of supply and demand. It is necessary to encourage real estate development enterprises to adjust their marketing strategies according to market rules, appropriately reduce commodity housing prices, promote mergers and acquisitions of the real estate industry, and improve industrial concentration.
The fourth is to make up the shortcomings. To build a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, poverty, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", ecological problems and infrastructure are all shortcomings. Only by filling these shortcomings can we inject new impetus into China's economic growth and bring new opportunities.
The fifth is to solve the problem of mismatch between financial supply structure and financing demand as soon as possible. On the basis of ensuring the security of the financial system, we will promote the direct financing function of the capital market, reduce the financing cost of enterprises, improve the financing convenience, and enhance the ability of finance to support the real economy.
"What needs to be emphasized is that supply-side reform is a delicate work that requires hard work. In the context of the current downward pressure on the economy, we must be determined and not impatient. Therefore, to create a good mentality in the whole society, we must be patient, confident and determined to reform. " Pan said: