With the rapid development of social economy, there is an obvious gap between world energy development and utilization and world energy demand. We must find more energy as soon as possible, and develop and utilize the existing energy more effectively. Therefore, on August 13, at the "Daily Theme" seminar of the Japanese Parliament, scholars from all over the world discussed the growing energy demand, sustainable energy and energy diversification-traditional and non-traditional energy and their potential, influence and value extensively and deeply. The energy in the world today mainly includes traditional oil and gas, coal, biofuels, production and living garbage, hydropower and nuclear energy; Non-traditional petroleum, biofuels, natural gas and renewable energy (solar energy, wind energy, etc.). ), geothermal energy and so on.
First, traditional energy minerals still dominate.
Traditional oil and gas production has a history of nearly 150 years The discovery rates of new oil reservoirs and new gas reservoirs reached their peak in 1960s and early 1970s respectively. At present, the proven oil reserves are nearly 6.5 trillion barrels, and nearly 1. 1 trillion barrels have been mined. At present, there are still about 1.2 trillion barrels that can be mined under technical conditions. These recoverable oil resources are mainly distributed in the Middle East, and there are also considerable reserves in the former Soviet Union. We can increase the remaining recoverable oil resources by increasing the development efforts in some key areas and improving the recovery ratio of some developed oil and gas fields. The discovered natural gas exceeds 65,438+00,000 trillion cubic feet, but the produced natural gas is less than 3,200 trillion cubic feet, leaving a large number of recoverable resources, which is equivalent to about 65,438+0.65,438+05 trillion barrels of oil equivalent. The discovery of natural gas in the future still has good potential, but there may be some bad environmental factors, such as the Russian Arctic.
At present, there are 439 nuclear power plants in the world, producing 16% of the world's electricity, most of which are located in the United States, France, Japan and Russia. In addition, there are 3 1 nuclear power plants under construction, mainly distributed in Russian, Indian and China.
Second, the proportion of non-traditional energy and mineral research has increased.
Non-traditional oil mainly comes from three aspects: first, super heavy oil and asphalt, with geological reserves of about 5 trillion barrels; The second is oil shale, with a geological reserve of about 3 trillion barrels. This oil mainly depends on the transformation of kerogen in immature oil shale. Other types of oil sources involved in the conversion process include coal and natural gas. At present, the output of these three types of converted oil is very small. South Africa's coal-to-oil production is about 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day, and China is carrying out industrial experiments on coal-to-oil production. The third is bio-oil, the current output is 6.5438+0.5 million barrels per day. Although these types of oil are not an important part of the current resource supply, the demand for these types of oil will gradually increase, and it is very likely to become an important part of the future energy composition.
Non-traditional natural gas mainly includes tight sandstone gas, shale gas, coalbed methane and natural gas hydrate. With the improvement of technology and the reduction of cost, the exploration potential of these unconventional natural gases has obviously increased. At present, the most important thing is coalbed methane, which now accounts for 10% of American natural gas production. With the improvement of technology and further understanding of geological conditions, this kind of natural gas has become one of the important components of American energy composition. In the United States, the exploration and development of unconventional natural gas such as tight sandstone gas and shale gas has also developed rapidly. Natural gas hydrate is a special natural gas resource. Although there is no good technology to make it an important part of energy supply in the world today, there is great room for exploration and development in the future.
Geothermal energy is a kind of natural heat energy from the interior of the earth. At present, geothermal resources have been discovered in 90 countries (regions), of which 72 countries (regions) have been developed, and the annual geothermal power generation has reached 80 trillion kilowatts. There is a lot of heat on the earth. In areas with high geothermal gradient, geological fluids play a good role in heat conduction and can form resources such as hot springs. Different geological conditions may contain good geothermal resources, which can be divided into high-temperature geothermal resources and low-temperature geothermal resources as a whole. Among them, high-temperature geothermal resources are relatively limited, mainly located in young volcanic development areas and plate edges, while low-temperature geothermal resources are widely distributed. A large number of new technologies and methods are needed to evaluate geothermal resources correctly and reasonably. High-temperature geothermal resources are mostly distributed in the mid-ocean ridge. Whether this geothermal energy can become our energy and the source of some chemical products in the future is worth studying.
Third, the future energy becomes the theme.
In the next few decades, fossil fuels will remain the first energy source. However, after years of exploration, development and technical exploration, today's world has changed from a large number of cheap energy in the 20th century to a high energy consumption cost that affects economic growth in the 20th century. The exploitation and utilization of fossil fuels produce a large amount of carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. How to reduce or solve this problem is an important factor that must be considered when developing future energy and formulating relevant laws and regulations. Coal resources will not be exhausted in the next few decades, and there will be no key problems in supply. It is still an extremely important part of the future energy composition. The utilization of coal resources will produce a large number of carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, but with the improvement of technology, after gradually slowing down or completely solving this problem in the near future, it will fully meet the requirements from environmental protection. Among them, carbon capture and storage is an important measure to solve climate change, which can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but it is not mature enough in terms of system, technology, economy, certification standards and infrastructure.
Renewable energy and clean energy are an important group of energy sources in the future, such as hydropower, nuclear energy, biofuels, solar energy, wind energy and geothermal energy. Countries all over the world are trying their best to replace gasoline and diesel with biofuels. In 200 1 year, the output of biofuels was less than 0.5% of the total oil output. In 2008, its output has risen to 1.7%. It is predicted that by 2020, the output of biofuels will reach 10%.
Fourth, integrate energy research into the system of sustainable economic development
There is an obvious gap between world energy supply and energy demand. At the same time, in order to reduce the environmental pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels, we must find and develop some new energy minerals as substitutes and supplements for oil and coal. These new energy sources must meet the conditions of environmental protection, energy saving, convenience and applicability, such as nuclear energy, unconventional oil and natural gas.
At present, environmental governance is also imminent. This is a long-term task, which requires a lot of financial, material, human and technical strength. It is necessary to formulate relevant laws and regulations and practical environmental governance methods, which can be achieved through government regulation or economic regulation mechanism. All these require the joint efforts of all countries in the world.
There is an obvious gap between world energy supply and demand, so effective methods must be taken to make up for this gap, and energy research must be brought into the system of economic sustainable development.
(Written by Jin, Tang and Wan Guimei)