20021year is the first year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the new process of building a socialist modernized country in an all-round way. After an extraordinary year of 2020, China has made outstanding achievements in epidemic prevention and control and economic growth, becoming the only country in the world that has achieved positive growth. Looking forward to 20021,what opportunities and challenges will China's economy face, and what kind of development trend will it present, which has attracted much attention.
Recovery and challenges coexist.
With the epidemic entering the second half, China's economy is steadily entering the post-epidemic era. Liu Yuanchun, vice president of China Renmin University, said in an interview with the media that the gradual decline of the world epidemic, the normalization of China's unconventional policies, the transformation and adjustment of China's development strategy and the gradual rise of endogenous new kinetic energy will be the four core forces that will affect China's macroeconomic operation in 20021year.
Kang Jia, president of Huaxia Institute of New Supply Economics and researcher of China Finance Research Institute, said, "202 1 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Many international institutions and domestic researchers agree on the economic performance of China in 20021year: due to the low base in 2020, the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 20021year will be higher than that at the beginning of the year; When the growth rate slows down, the annual economic growth rate will reach 8% or higher. "
"2020 is an extraordinary year. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, China's economic growth rate declined in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, with the domestic epidemic under control, economic growth accelerated significantly, and both domestic demand and external demand showed an accelerated growth trend. The state's policy of promoting economic growth through dual circulation has been brought into play. " Ma Chunhui, an associate professor of economics at Shenzhen University, told reporters of Xiaokang magazine and China Xiaokang. China 202 1 The macroeconomic situation is stable growth. From the external analysis of development, the external economic environment of China's macro-economy has improved. With the completion of China-EU comprehensive investment negotiation agreement and the signing of relevant agreements, China will continue to play the role of "engine" of global economic growth, promote the recovery of the world economy after the epidemic, and enhance the confidence of the international community in economic globalization and free trade. From the analysis of domestic economic development environment, China's monetary policy and fiscal policy have the ability to cope with the complex economic situation. After the second half of 2020, China's investment, consumption, import and export, corporate profitability, innovation ability, manager purchasing index and other indicators have increased rapidly. The improvement of domestic and international economic environment has laid a solid foundation for the economic growth of 202 1 China.
Ma Chunhui predicted that "in 2020, due to the epidemic, the economic growth rate will be lower than the normal year. With the implementation of various policies and the inertia of economic growth in the second half of 2020, the economic growth rate of China in 20021year can be completely restored to around 8%. "
Zhou Jingtong, a senior economist at China Bank Research Institute, expressed cautious optimism about China's economy in 20021year. He said that this judgment is mainly based on the following three factors: First, China's economy will take the lead in recovering from the epidemic in 2020, and it will be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth, which has laid a good foundation for sustained economic growth in 20021year; Second, the impact of 202 1 epidemic on China's economy will be further alleviated; Third, the policy focus will shift from supply-side structural reform to supply-side and demand-side reform, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with internal circulation as the mainstay, further stimulate the potential of domestic demand and further enhance its supporting role for economic growth.
From June 5438 to February 65438 to June 65438, 2020, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. Compared with the 20 19 Central Economic Work Conference, this conference has many new formulations. For example, it is proposed for the first time to "strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent disorderly expansion of capital", "do a good job in peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality" and "enhance the independent and controllable ability of industrial chain supply chain".
The meeting clearly pointed out that the macro policy of 202 1 should be continuous, stable and sustainable. We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, operate the policy more accurately and effectively, do not make a sharp turn, and grasp the effectiveness of the policy.
"The macro policies that have been implemented will gradually show results in 202 1; Unfulfilled policies will be further implemented, which will support the further recovery of China's economy in 20021year. " Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and dean of the research institute, told the media.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of China Economic Exchange Center, believes that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2020 will adhere to the general tone of striving for stability in the direction of macro-policies. While stabilizing policy continuity, we should pay more attention to deepening reform and opening up to enhance new impetus for development, which means giving consideration to counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cyclical design in macroeconomic policies, giving full play to the role of proactive fiscal policy more effectively, implementing monetary policy more steadily, paying attention to preventing and resolving risks while stimulating market vitality, and at the same time focusing on some key points to further enhance development. "The particularly important policy focus is to grasp one closed and two open jobs. It is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of policies according to the needs of the situation, and at the same time adjust and fine-tune policies according to opportunities. "
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the goal of monetary policy in 20021year-a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate. In the past, it was "flexible and moderate" on the basis of stability, but now four words have been added. 202 1 there is still a lot of room for monetary policy, and the central bank emphasizes maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio.
According to Ma Chunhui's analysis, with the macroeconomic growth of 202 1, relatively speaking, China's monetary policy has more tools to regulate the economy and less room for fiscal policy. However, the task of deleveraging in the implementation of monetary policy is still arduous, and preventing financial risks is still an important consideration. With the introduction and further implementation of the policy of reducing fees and taxes, the pressure of fiscal balance at all levels has increased; Local debt risk, enterprise debt risk, small and medium-sized enterprises' operating difficulties, employment pressure and slow recovery of the world economy all add uncertainty to China's economic growth in 20021year.
Center of gravity shift: technology and carbon neutrality
202 1 how to do economic work? The Central Economic Work Conference put forward eight key tasks, including strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength, enhancing the self-control ability of the industrial chain supply chain, adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, comprehensively promoting reform and opening up, solving the problems of seeds and cultivated land, strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, solving the outstanding housing problem in big cities, and doing a good job of carbon neutrality at the peak of carbon dioxide emission.
Strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength is placed at the top of the eight key tasks. The Central Economic Work Conference in 2020 pointed out that "determine the direction and key points of scientific and technological innovation and focus on solving major problems that restrict the development and security of the country" and "we must promptly formulate and implement a ten-year action plan for basic research and focus on the layout of a number of basic discipline research centers".
"202 1, many fields and departments related to high technology will usher in new development space, such as strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries and modern manufacturing industries." Lian Ping said that this is the need of China's economic development on the one hand, and the policy will fully support it on the other.
Zhu Yan, a professor at Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and president of Internet Industry Research Institute, believes that strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength includes three levels. First, strengthen the strategic strength of basic science and technology; The second is the optimization and reform of the governance system of scientific and technological innovation; The third is to improve the ecological construction ability of science and technology application.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of China Policy Science Research Association, believes that science and technology will play a more and more strategic supporting role in the economy, and scientific and technological innovation, especially basic research, should be placed at the core.
In addition, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly put forward that "doing a good job of carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality" is one of the key tasks in 20021year. Li Junfeng, executive director of China Energy Research Association and researcher of National Center for Strategic Research and International Cooperation on Climate Change, believes that carbon neutrality is related to all aspects, including the industrial chain, which will profoundly affect the next industrial chain reconstruction, reorganization and new international standards.
"In the process of peaking carbon dioxide emissions, it is also the key work during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period to promote a substantial increase in energy efficiency, improve energy structure and substantially increase the proportion of non-fossil energy." Li Junfeng pointed out that in the energy field, clean and low-carbon energy is a direction, which is the same all over the world, that is, gradually reducing dependence on fossil energy. Its basic logic is to move from a resource-dependent development model to a technology-dependent development model.
Li Junfeng said that 202 1 was a very special year, which played a role in connecting the past with the future. "We look forward to a good start in the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, making a good start for the country's real low-carbon transformation, achieving the three-stage goal of peaking, stabilizing and declining, and finally achieving carbon neutrality."
The above is what will the economic situation be like in 20021year compiled by Wencai.com. Where will China's economy go? "I hope I can help you.