In this meeting, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released two important signals, which are related to the market trend faced by pig farmers in 2023 and even in the future! At the same time, it also announces that China aquaculture has entered a new era!

The breeding scale reached 70% in February15th. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held the latest video conference on animal husbandry and veterinary statistical monitoring in Beijing, which released two important signals!

First, the meeting pointed out that in 2022, with the joint efforts of the whole industry, the national meat and milk output reached a record high, the poultry and egg output was close to the highest level in history, and the scale of livestock and poultry breeding exceeded 70%, which provided solid support for the stable production and supply of "vegetable basket" products.

This is the scale of aquaculture in China officially announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 70% means that most aquaculture production capacity in China has been scaled up, and the market share of free-range households has been extremely small.

And judging from the last sentence, the scale of pig production, cattle and sheep production and egg production in China will be further improved!

Because for the industry, large-scale farming is more conducive to disease prevention and control; For production capacity, scale is more conducive to rapid regulation; For people's livelihood security, the scale is more convenient for stable production and supply; For economic development, scale is more conducive to derivative value. ......

However, it should also be recognized that with the continuous improvement of breeding scale, both large-scale farms and free-range households will face a "meager profit era" with more stable pig prices, more saturated production capacity and more intense competition.

In other words, in the limited pig market, large-scale production capacity is increasing, and only excellent breeding enterprises or production capacity can win, and pig enterprises that blindly expand but have many problems are equally dangerous.

Mr. Wang Zhong, the chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, pointed out in the webcast of "Great Changes of Large-scale Pig Farms and Breakthrough of Cross-period Management in the New Period" hosted by Ningbo Sansheng on February 15 that in recent years, due to the rapid development of pig industry in China, many enterprises have expanded very fast, but three main problems have also been highlighted.

The first is the problem of corporate philosophy. Many enterprises that used to raise pigs now raise pigs, but they are reckless and lack awe, so they can't raise them well.

The second is the problem of enterprise cooperation. Large pig-raising enterprises have many levels and departments, so it is difficult to work together. If we can't change it and get through the problem of cooperation, it will cause inefficiency.

The third is execution. Many large pig enterprises use similar pig farm management manuals, but why are some costs as high as 9 yuan/kg, while others are only about 7.7 yuan/kg? Among them, it has a great relationship with team execution.

Take the prevention and control of non-plague as an example. 20 18 some pig enterprises have put non-plague prevention and control in place, but some pig enterprises often have plague prevention loopholes today. Why? Not a way to prevent illegal behavior, but execution!

Teacher Wang Zhong, Chief Consultant of Mou Yi Consulting

Dr. Wang Yanchun, a senior technical expert of Ningbo Sansheng, pointed out in the live broadcast that both the development of enterprises and the profitability of pig farms still need talents to promote them, but now many pig enterprises are facing difficulties such as "unable to recruit people, unable to retain people and rising labor costs".

In order to solve these problems, many excellent pig-raising enterprises have adopted batch production mode, which has significantly improved the happiness index and work efficiency of pig farm employees and reduced labor costs.

For example, the verification of Sansheng in a 2400-head scale field shows that under the scientific mass production mode, the number of employees can be reduced from 24 at the beginning to 8, directly saving 1 15000! 1 15000 corresponds to weaned piglets, and the average head cost is about 20 yuan.

Moreover, it should be noted that the biggest savings in per capita efficiency improvement are not personnel costs, but the improvement of production performance, the reduction of management difficulty and the reduction of disease risk, which are far higher than the savings in labor costs!

It can be seen that both free-range farmers and large pig enterprises still have room for growth and demand, and the market is becoming more and more unreliable. Even if the pig price is rising recently, we should be alert to the formation of a new "pig price trap" ......

The second important signal announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs at the meeting is that pork consumption has entered the off-season, and all localities should encrypt early warning information to guide farmers to follow the trend and avoid blindly pressing the bar to affect the price recovery.

Friends who collect pig prices know that the price of pigs has obviously shown an upward trend in the last three days, which has made many people have greater expectations for the rebound of pig prices.

At this point, it is easy for everyone to want to press the bar for a while to wait for the higher price of the follow-up pigs!

From the operational point of view, it is indeed possible to affect the continued recovery of pig prices, but this is equivalent to overdrawing the market outlook in advance. The increase in production capacity formed by pressure bars will lead to the collapse of subsequent pig prices when they should really rise, and prolong the trough of pig prices!

Teacher Wang Zhong, the chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, clearly pointed out that we are now at the bottom of the fifth pig cycle, and the third and fourth quarters of 2023 will usher in the rising period of the sixth pig cycle.

The bottoming period is not equal to the running-in period, which shows that our pig price is still in the process of exploring the bottom. It is better to wait for the pig price to pick up and then fall to the end, and usher in a real rising period as soon as possible!

Because at present, although the price of fat pigs has dropped to around 7 yuan, piglets are still in the profit range, which is different from that when a large number of roast suckling pigs eliminated piglets in 202 1. Only when piglets fall below the cost line, the price of sows will drop, and the industry will go to production capacity for two or three months, which is the real turning point of the cycle.

The market in 2023 will never be so calm, because the fifth pig cycle is an emotional cycle, and the current production capacity has not gone, and the mood has not retreated.

Generally speaking, pig enterprises and farmers must be in awe of the market outlook, so how to successfully break through the bottom of the cycle in this complex pig market and realize the sustainable and healthy operation of pig farms? The answer is not only to increase efficiency and reduce costs, but also to accurately grasp the cyclical changes of pigs!

The era of cross-cycle management and meager profit is coming rapidly, but the cost and competition of raising pigs are rising. So in this involution environment, how can pig enterprises and farms successfully break through and achieve cross-cycle management?

Dr. Wang Yanchun, a senior technical expert of Ningbo Sansheng, hit the nail on the head and pointed out that from 20 13 to 2023, the cost of pig breeding will rise from about 14 yuan /kg to about 16~ 17 yuan /kg, and the soaring cost will test the profitability of all pig raising enterprises and farmers.

In recent years, the increase in cost is mainly in the aspects of "piglet cost, feed cost, labor cost, depreciation of fixed assets, and disease prevention cost", so many pig enterprises or farms are staring at the cost and want to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In fact, the logic of long-term operation of pig enterprises should be to increase production and income through profit management, rather than blindly pursuing low costs.

For example, if we can do a good job in breeding, breeding and precise nutrition of reserve pigs, we can make great contributions to the operating profit of the whole pig farm.

Even if each reserve pig enters the herd in batches one day in advance, it can save the cost15 ~ the standard of 20 yuan. If the scale is large, this piece of profit is considerable.

Another example is disease management. We found that the big week batch (35 days batch) can realize all-in and all-out of the delivery room. Even if there are medium and large-scale diseases such as blue ear disease and diarrhea in the pig farm, mass production can at least help the pig farm reduce the loss of more than 1/3, and also reduce the impact of diseases on the pig farm.

To sum up, in mass production, our production managers can't always measure the input and output of mass production by the result of a breeding end, but should comprehensively measure the cost of comprehensive management, the improvement of human efficiency and pig efficiency, and the improvement of a certain production index at the seed conservation end and the fattening end.

Dr. Wang Yanchun, a senior technical expert of Ningbo Sansheng.

Mr. Wang Zhong, chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, also believes that the real profit in 2023 will be short, but there will still be a good high point. Everyone should seize the opportunity as much as possible, do a good job in production and reduce costs.

For example, looking back over the past four years, 20 19 was both a disaster and a business opportunity, 2020 was a year of ups and downs, 202 1 was a year of big losses and big profits, and 2022 was a year of big ups and downs; This is the best four years in history and the worst four years. Some enterprises have made a lot of money, while others have lost the profits accumulated in the past 10 years.

Why is the gap between pig enterprises so big in the same period? This is because some people grasp the cycle, while others fail to live up to it.

There are three main factors affecting the pig cycle-accident, intervention and human nature, which are superimposed to form a super-strong pig cycle in the past four years.

Looking back, Mr. Wang Zhong said that we have now entered the downward period of the fifth pig cycle, which has undergone tremendous changes. The regular experience of the past cycle is no longer completely repeated-large enterprises are relatively more rational, the increase or decrease of production capacity is smaller, the cycle probability will be shortened, the cycle amplitude will gradually decrease, and the hand of manipulating pig prices will always be there.

So how should we deal with it?

First of all, it is necessary to understand the position of pig cycle, which is helpful to make a correct plan to increase or decrease production capacity, make a decision to choose trading points, and realize the reverse operation of counter-cycle.

In each cycle, "counter-cycle" operation is very important, which can help us reserve production capacity when the cycle is low, thus saving costs; Release production capacity when the market is good and maximize benefits! In addition, because the cycle is constantly changing, pig enterprises should also be able to operate flexibly. Anything can be sold as long as it can reduce business risks and improve business efficiency. For example, if the price of piglets is good, sell piglets, and if they lose money, continue to fatten and adjust their business strategies at any time.

Generally speaking, the pig price situation in 2023 can be described as "cautious optimism".

Because the production capacity of the pig industry has not been transformed, it will take some time to bottom out; However, in the past, the epidemic consumption was recovering, and the top management very much hoped to stabilize the pig price in a reasonable range, so that pig farmers would not lose money and consumers would not eat expensive meat! For reference, the management's view is that the experience of the past cycle can't make the logic of the new cycle. Sometimes the high price of pigs does not necessarily mean that there are fewer pigs, so you can't rush into business and lose half.

Finally, Mr. Wang Zhong said that some scientific and efficient production modes and management experiences brought by Sansheng are very helpful for improving quality and increasing efficiency in our aquaculture production process, and everyone can learn from them.