Since the downturn of 20 18 automobile market, various policies have been introduced continuously, but the effect seems to be not obvious. This time, the goal is very clear, starting from the restricted cities and promoting the increment. The central government speaks directly and the local governments actively implement it, and the effect will definitely be immediate.
The automobile market has been greatly affected. The impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry is already obvious. Even if nothing will change, the downward auto market will be slowed down again, which really makes manufacturers very embarrassed.
According to the data of 5438+ 10 in June, the domestic sales of passenger cars in narrow sense reached 172 1 10,000 vehicles, down 20.4% year-on-year. Separately, car, SUV, MPV, new energy and other market segments all experienced double-digit declines. To know that there is an effective sales date of 65438+ 10 and 17, the situation in February is basically foreseeable. If you prepare for the worst, it will be difficult for the auto market to get back on track before April.
After the epidemic, it is difficult for the auto market to return quickly. Because the first thing everyone does is not go straight to the 4S store with their wallet, more people will care whether their income, mortgage and other rigid expenses will be affected. Therefore, it may take longer to wait for the desire to buy to recover, and the control of money may be more stringent. At this time, if you want to make the auto market develop forward, you must have the promotion of relevant policies.
Why does the automobile industry need more policy promotion? First of all, it is not like catering, entertainment and other industries with small consumption. After the epidemic has passed, there will be some retaliatory consumption to alleviate the pressure during this period, so the recovery of these industries is not difficult.
Secondly, compared with the real estate market to stimulate consumption and stimulate domestic demand, the recovery of the automobile market not only exists in the superficial ups and downs of sales, but also drives the entire industrial chain and solves the employment problem of more people.
The automobile industry starts from the manufacturing of parts on the first floor, to the terminal sales on the outer floor, and then to the repurchase sales of used cars, which are closely linked and affect the whole body.
On a larger level, China's manufacturing industry has become an important part of the global supply chain, and the continuous suspension of production will affect our position in the global supply chain. More than once, I heard the news that the supply of spare parts was interrupted, which led to the suspension or reduction of production of car companies in other countries. If they switch suppliers or transfer production capacity, the damage to China automobile industry chain may be even greater.
What's the effect this time? The policy of promoting automobile consumption has been common since 20 18: once again, cars go to the countryside to promote the scrapping and renewal of old cars; No restrictions shall be imposed on new energy vehicles; Relax the purchase restriction policy according to the actual situation, but the effect is not obvious and there are not many places to implement it.
This time, the direct instructions of the central government have been very clear, and the degree of policy implementation should be very high. The purchasing power of many cities has not been directly released because of the tendency to restrict purchases. If we can moderately liberalize this time, a small increase will definitely not be a problem.
Prior to this, some regions have introduced policies to stabilize automobile consumption. Foshan issued relevant regulations, giving consumers 2000 ~ 5000 yuan to subsidize the purchase of national six-displacement vehicles, which was implemented on March 1, including new users and new users.
There are also small moves in Beijing. In 2020, the personal indicators of ordinary passenger cars will increase by 0.5%. Although the action is not very big, at least we have seen this momentum and believe that more measures will be introduced after the implementation of the policy.
Some people may say, why should the promotion of growth start with the restriction of cities? The car stock itself is very large, and traffic congestion will definitely double. Maybe we can look at it from another angle. If the purchase is finally restricted because of congestion, it does not seem to solve the fundamental problem.
The relaxation of purchase restriction is more likely to promote the upgrading of urban management. If we can correctly solve the urban management of purchase restriction and then promote the sales progress of third-tier or fourth-tier cities, it seems more orderly.
The impact of the epidemic on the auto market has really hit hard in the short term. Especially in February, the sales volume was basically no food in the whole industry. In 20 19, the domestic automobile sales reached 25.769 million vehicles, which was equivalent to a direct loss of nearly 3 million vehicles considering the strong market in February. Fortunately, the just-needed automobile industry is still full. Once the epidemic is over and Spring Festival travel rush comes, automobile consumption is bound to reach its peak again under the stimulus of the central policy.
# I will be happy when I see the traffic jam for the first time # I went to the hot search today, and many people are expecting traffic jams on the main roads of the city again. The spring of the automobile industry is also closer!
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.