On August 25th, Li Yi, deputy secretary of the Education Working Committee of Beijing Municipal Committee and spokesperson of the Municipal Education Commission, introduced that in the new semester, Beijing will promote the exchange and rotation of cadres and teachers on a large scale, with Dongcheng District and Miyun District as the first two pilot areas. 202 1 Before the end of the year, the pilot of exchange and rotation of cadres and teachers in six districts will be launched.

The director of Dongcheng District Education Committee made it clear that it will take three years to realize the 100% exchange rotation of school cadres and teachers in Dongcheng District compulsory education stage.

Teachers are the most important and important resources of the school. If 100% teacher rotation can be effectively implemented, the fundamental balance of compulsory education resources will be realized. Once the "prestigious school" disappears, the word "school district room" will also be swept into the garbage dump of history.

"If the rotation of teachers can be fully staffed and institutionalized, it will be a huge reform, which means that there will be no famous schools in the future, not only students but also teachers. The' Niupai' will become history and the school district will disappear. "

"Don't underestimate the implementation of the policy. Many high-priced school districts are indeed dangerous, but as long as there is a no-sale zone, it is more likely to cut peaks and fill valleys ";

"If it is thoroughly implemented, there will be no concept of a' prestigious school' in the future, and it will only be a balanced area at most, which will be a fundamental blow to the housing prices in the school district";

"I hope that there is no concept of a school district in Beijing, and you don't have to worry about changing rooms to go to school. The happiness index of more than ten years ago will come back ";

The above viewpoints were analyzed by education experts, real estate analysts, real estate agents and Beijing parents to reporters of 2 1 century business herald. Several main roles involved in the school district housing have formed a cognitive closed loop, and the evolution of the market is also carried out under such expectations.

Taking the most affected top school districts as an example, many real estate agents in Xicheng Desheng, Yuetan and other regions told reporters that after Beijing implemented the multi-school dicing policy in early July, the market plummeted, and the teacher rotation policy caused the house price that had already dropped for a round to suffer a new impact.

"The original price reduction was about 654.38+0 million, which attracted some buyers. Several customers plan to talk with the seller about the contract this weekend. When the teacher rotation policy came out, I didn't buy what I could buy, and I wanted to wait. "

Although there are still many practical obstacles to the promotion of the teacher rotation system, around the topic of "school district housing", the fanatical price speculation has further collapsed, and the two main reasons for pushing up the price of school district housing are gradually disintegrating. It is no longer an irrefutable truth that "if you buy it, you will learn, and if you sell it, you will add value".

From "confidence can buy a thousand dollars" to "a thousand dollars can't buy confidence", if the "school district house" loses the "school district house", real estate speculation is naturally expected to collapse.

The New Deal is bitter.

The teacher rotation system is an important measure to promote the balanced development of compulsory education, but it is not a new concept. 2 1 Century Business Herald The reporter interviewed relevant experts on how the Beijing pilot project will exert its influence and why it will have a drastic effect on the school district.

Looking back, we can find that the Outline of the National Medium-and Long-Term Education Reform and Development Plan (20 10-2020), which was released as early as 2010, proposed to establish and improve the guarantee mechanism for the balanced development of compulsory education and implement the exchange system between teachers and principals in counties (districts). In 20 14, the Opinions on Promoting the Exchange and Rotation of Principals and Teachers in County (District) Compulsory Education Schools issued by the Ministry of Education and other departments clearly required that the exchange and rotation of principals and teachers in county (District) should be institutionalized and normalized in three to five years, and the proportion of teachers in urban schools and high-quality schools should not be less than 10%.

Xiong Bingqi, president of the 265438+20th Century Education Research Institute, told reporters that worldwide, the implementation of district system management and teacher exchange rotation is an important measure to promote the balance of compulsory education, but the reality is that there are not many places where the exchange rotation between principals and teachers has been institutionalized and normalized.

"As we all know, compulsory education schools are unbalanced, mainly because of the imbalance of teachers. 100% teacher rotation means reconstructing the basic education ecology, which is fundamentally fair, and famous schools and strong schools no longer exist. "

Xiong Bingqi pointed out that Beijing's proposal to promote the exchange and rotation of principals and teachers in a large area and in a large proportion is not only to implement the opinions previously issued by the state, but also to take greater steps on this basis. If it can be effectively implemented, it will realize the equal allocation of compulsory education resources, narrow the gap in the quality of running schools within the school district, within the region and even within the city, and eliminate the fever of school districts and degree rooms.

Li Wei also said at the press conference that in the process of promotion, parents' understanding of educational supply-side structural reform will definitely affect the choice of schools, and the identification of school districts will definitely help ease the situation.

"If teachers can really implement a comprehensive rotation system, the school district will definitely be cooler." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters that it is really difficult to thoroughly implement the teacher rotation system, but don't underestimate the implementation of the policy. Many high-priced school districts are in jeopardy, especially Xicheng and Haidian.

On the other hand, Zhang Dawei also added that before the implementation of cross-regional rotation of teachers, the policy will affect the regional balance, and the educational resources in the same school district will be closer and closer, which will affect the high housing prices in the top school districts in the past, such as Desheng District. But as long as the lock zone exists, it is more likely to cut peaks and fill valleys.

A real estate agent in Desheng District, Xicheng District, Beijing told 2 1 Century Business Herald: "If it is really implemented, there will be no concept of' prestigious school' in the future." Let's take a look. The degree of suppressing housing prices depends on the actual implementation of the policy, but one thing is certain: "The price of our top school district will definitely not rise."

Another real estate agent in the Yuetan area of Xicheng said that the price of the school district is likely to fall in the future. "Buyers are waiting and don't worry. After a long time, there will be owners who can't hold on and the price will drop to the buyer's psychological price. If they are willing to take over, there will be transactions in the market. This is a cycle. " The market will repeat the state in July.

Both prices and confidence fell.

It is not only the price that plummeted, but also the shaken confidence.

How psychological expectations will affect the price of school districts has been staged once in July.

2 1 century business herald reporters have visited the housing market of the top school district in Xicheng, Beijing for a long time and found that since the implementation of the multi-school dicing policy in Xicheng, prices have plummeted, and a number of defaulting customers would rather lose 300,000 deposits than buy them. In addition to breach of contract, there are a number of owners who have decided to replace the next suite and choose to take the initiative to reduce the price to equalize the price difference; At present, the price reduction of houses for sale is also obvious, and it is not uncommon for houses with a total decline of 1 10,000-10.5 million.

Yuxiang primary school has been called "old cow" for many years. If Xicheng District is an educational highland in Beijing, Yuxiang Primary School in Desheng District is the brightest pearl in this crown.

One of the big price reduction cases is located in the corresponding community of Yuxiang Primary School. The residential areas are all old houses, old corridors and low houses built by 1982. The building area of this house is only 58 square meters, and the decoration is the earliest batch, which can't keep up with the living demand. Just in June this year, the price of the house was 9.9 million yuan, and the unit price was as high as 6.5438+0.7 million yuan per square meter. Someone offered 9.2 million that day, but the owner refused, because the same apartment in the corridor next door had just sold for 9.4 million.

After the multi-school dicing, the reality gave the owner a heavy blow, and the quotation fell again and again, failing to clinch a deal. At present, the house price has been adjusted to 8.6 million yuan, and it is reported that the owner's psychological reserve price has dropped to 8.2 million yuan. In less than two months, the house price fell by 6.5438+0.2 million yuan, which is a true portrayal of the school district.

Another representative case of breach of contract corresponds to Wulutong Primary School, which is another well-known "Niu Xiao" in Desheng District. This building is older. Built in 1979, with a building area of 58 square meters. In June, it was sold for 9.4 million yuan, and the unit price exceeded160,000 per square meter. Originally thought that there was no "small slag" in Desheng area, and the house could be guaranteed.

However, after the multi-school dicing in July, I saw a large number of people who bought houses after July 3 1 2020. All the children are transferred out of Desheng District, and the school is not a prestigious school. Property buyers would rather lose 500 thousand deposit and resolutely cancel the contract. The buyer said in the original words: "My child will go to school next year, and there is no hope of entering a prestigious school. When the house was bought, it depreciated and was released early. " This house was finally sold for the second time at a price of 8.4 million yuan in August, and the price dropped by 6,543,800 yuan.

The sale of school district housing itself is a typical war between supply and demand, and the wait-and-see of buyers will also trigger a new round of psychological game and house price fluctuation.

The process of leveling educational resources is also the process of returning the value of school districts. It takes determination and time to implement the rotation of teachers from the whole region to cross-regional implementation; The return of school district housing value also needs the disintegration of psychological expectation and time. (Author: Kong Editor: Zhang Weixian)