Market-related personnel commented that MLF continued to work as expected, and the operation volume did not exceed expectations. However, not many people expected this interest rate adjustment.
It is worth noting that since 2065438+February 2006, Bank of China lowered the operating interest rate of MLF for the first time.
Some experts were surprised that the Bank of China lowered the medium-term loan interest rate again three years later.
Li Yong, chief analyst of fixed income in soochow securities, said that the MLF interest rate fell beyond market expectations, and the central bank planned to guide the LPR to fall, effectively reducing the debt cost of banks. Macro data exceeded expectations, and this month's interest rate 10- 15 basis points has room to fall.
Zhou Hao, a senior economist at Singapore Commercial Bank, said that in view of the rising pressure of CPI, the Bank of China's action to lower the MLF interest rate is brave, but it also shows that China is stepping up its policies to support the economy. It is estimated that the expected interest rate (LPR) of the loan market will drop by 5 basis points this month.
Both the stock market and the national debt have gone up.
After the central bank announced that the policy interest rate had dropped, the China 10-year treasury bond futures soared, and the trading volume increased by 0.38% to 97%.
The A-share market also rose across the board. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.7 1% to 299 1, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose 0.79% to 9938 17 13.
In fact, so far, the voice of the market has been declining, but the central bank did not decline before the previous LPR quotation, and the market expects that the voice will decline this year.
Why choose to reduce information now?
But why reduce the information now? The analysis believes that this may be the result of the game between the central bank and banks.
Zhong, president and chief economist of Monita Research Institute, said that banks have limited space and willingness to reduce risk premium, and the result of 10 quotation remained at the level of September, and the gap between bank quotation and MLF did not decrease. This is because the economy is in the downward cycle, which oppresses the balance sheet of banks, but to some extent, the game between the central bank and banks is inevitable.
Jianghai securities reported that so far, the reduction of LPR depends on narrowing the profit gap, which has indeed reduced the profits of banks. The interest rate of LPR did not drop at 5438+00 in June, and banks did not want to reduce profits. Therefore, in order to reduce the cost of capital, it is necessary to reduce the interest rate of MLF.
Is the future monetary easing space open?
At present, experts still have differences on whether to open the downside of monetary policy in the future, and have not yet reached a unified conclusion.
The chief analyst of CITIC Securities said that since the beginning of this year, central banks around the world have been loose, the RMB exchange rate has been stable, and the central bank has sufficient monetary policy space. In the future, the central bank may adopt a price cooperation policy. After the interest rate cut, at the end of the year or the beginning of the year,
Jiang Chao of Haitong Securities has a different view. Jiang Chao thinks that the LPR quotation of 10 has not declined, and the decline of market-oriented interest rate has been hindered. After reducing the MLF interest rate, the contract interest rate of new loans has declined, but the decline is limited, which means that monetary policy is still a stable and neutral tone. In the short term, inflation will remain under pressure, and easing policy will remain limited.
Zhong also believes that the need for the central bank to cherish the normal monetary policy space still exists. This decline in information is an unexpected surprise for the market. Does this mean that the door to monetary easing will be smoother and smoother? In the context of increasing inflationary pressure, further observation is needed and unrealistic predictions should not be made.
Institution: A shares and the expected new rise.
MLF interest rate drops, is A-share stable at 3000 points?
The chief strategy analyst of New Era Securities said that the MLF bid-winning interest rate has dropped, and it is expected that A shares will start to rise again. The central bank dispelled market concerns about monetary policy. The market has long expected that interest rates will fall, but the time has exceeded expectations. At present, there is no real trend in the market, and most cautious investors are waiting for the market to move to a lower position before adding positions. At present, the low evaluation plate on the right side of the fundamentals is insufficient, but the evaluation is cheap and the left side of the fundamentals is insufficient.
In terms of allocation, Fan believes that since the end of June 1 1, concerns about the income level have been completely passivated. I suggest you pay attention to the optional consumption and finance suppressed by the economic downturn. First, the rebound caused by the economic downturn passivation, and then see more optimistic signs, we can continue to improve expectations, and the style may gradually turn to the main board, so cyclical stocks have a chance.
Wen Tianna, CEO of Boda Capital, said that the interest rate of MLF's winning bid has dropped, but the market is expected to rise instead of falling. Now it exceeds market expectations. The central bank hopes to stabilize the financial market and the real economy, which will greatly help the real economy and reduce the debt burden of enterprises.
Qin Han, chief fixed-income analyst of Guotai Junan, said that the decline in MLF interest rates has stabilized market confidence. For many investors, it is recommended to wait patiently for a certain boarding time. The fall of MLF interest rate is beneficial to the stock market.
Where will the future of A shares rise?
Where is A-share likely to rise in the future? The organization also commented on this.
Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Research Institute, said that the judgment of the A-share market in the next six months is that the market risk appetite is gradually rising, and it is impossible for the Shanghai Composite Index to exceed 2,700 points in the next six months. The Shanghai Composite Index may stand at 3,000 points before the end of the year, and then run between 3,000 and 3,300 points in the first quarter of next year.
Lian Xin Securities is optimistic in its latest A-share strategy outlook for 2020 that the market is expected to burn when the policy intensive period comes at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In the region that challenges 3700 points in 2020, the market will be more confident in the first half of the year.
China Merchants Securities expects investment prospects in 2020. In the first half of 2020, inflation pressure was high, monetary policy was blocked, and the market was dominated by structural market. In the second half of the year, the downward pressure on the economy increased, inflation fell, monetary policy space was opened, and the market continued to rise in a more relaxed environment.