Ming Jiang: Hello.
Moderator: Please sit down.
Moderator: Let's get to know the background of Teacher Jiang first.
The resume I introduced to you here is quite simple, because it is the only information we can find online. Mr. Ming Jiang was born in 1957, and graduated from history department of Fudan University in 1984. Now he is the general manager of china galaxy Securities Company. Published works, in addition to I just mentioned "Flying Fleet with Dragon Flag", as well as "Modern Naval History of China" and "Adjusted Eyes", etc.
Moderator: Mr. Jiang, after learning about your resume, I think you may have a very special place, that is, on the one hand, you are the general manager of Galaxy Securities Shanghai Branch, engaged in financial work. On the other hand, there is also a historian who has published many monographs on this period of history. I don't know how you find the internal connection between finance and history.
Ming Jiang: I left school on 1984. When I left school, I didn't actually engage in academic work. I was working in an office at that time. I once worked in the Organization Department of Shanghai Municipal Committee for a period of time. Then in the early 1990s, when China's financial system was reformed and the securities market was just emerging, I switched to the securities industry.
For me, securities is my job. Historical research is one of my interests. This interest has been reserved for me for more than 20 years, because since my sophomore year, my teacher organized an academic salon. In this salon, many students want to study the modern military history of China. At that time, I made a promise to my teacher to study modern naval history. For so many years, I have been turning a promise to my teacher into an ideal or a belief and an interest, and I have been persisting.
Moderator: Has there ever been a conflict between finance and history? Did you ever say that you had to make a choice?
Ming Jiang: I don't think so. Because I feel that in my past experience, my colleagues and my leaders generally respect my choice. That is to say, besides, I won't delay. I will take a short vacation except for attending some academic activities several times. Usually I don't delay. I never said I had to ask for leave because I had to do historical research. I'm going to do this for a month, so everyone supports you.
Moderator: Actually, when I came out of college, I originally studied history. Why didn't I go directly to academia to do academic research?
Ming Jiang: It has something to do with my distribution at that time. At the same time, I also have a feeling about myself. I think people who do historical research are sometimes superficial if they don't know much about real life and today's things. So I thought at that time, whether I was talking about institutions or going to the society, I would accumulate some experience about the changes in real China and the real society, and maybe there would be some different changes in perspective, that is, I could see some researchers from universities and research institutes in historical research. I think it was a challenge for me at that time.
Moderator: OK, then I want to welcome Mr. Ming Jiang to give us today's keynote speech ―― Li Hongzhang and the historical lessons of the Sino-Japanese War, after knowing some experiences of you and Mr. Ming Jiang. Please welcome.
Ming Jiang: This year (referring to 2005) marks the 60th anniversary of the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 and the 60th anniversary of the victory of War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, the people of China. Some historians call the Sino-Japanese War of 1894- 1895 the First Sino-Japanese War, and later War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression called it the Second Sino-Japanese War. These two wars had a great influence on the modern history of China, and everyone in China will never forget them.
Decades before the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, after the smoke of the two Opium Wars dispersed, some pioneers among China people have seen that China is facing unprecedented changes for thousands of years. They began to think, so Wei Yuan once said that we should "learn from foreigners and control them". Is to learn the skills of foreigners to control foreigners.
Li Hongzhang first advocated that everything in the world will change if it is poor, and that if it changes, it will pass. So there was the Westernization Movement that lasted for 30 years. The military focus of this Westernization Movement is to follow the example of the West, establish a modern navy and defend the country's coastal defense. This is China's response to the changes in the world situation at that time.
Then, when China is facing the invasion of western powers and the crisis of national subjugation and extinction, our eastern neighbor, Japan across the sea, is also facing the same challenge. China and Japan reacted almost synchronously to the West. On the road of modernization, Japan has made it a national policy to emulate the West and leave Asia for Europe, which is its ideal and political reform to leave Asia for Europe. Through the Meiji Restoration, feudalism was eliminated and centralization and constitutional monarchy were completed. It is also a concrete step to expand overseas, take North Korea as a springboard, set foot on the mainland, and then conquer the world. In this way, China and Japan will inevitably collide on the road of modernization.
Ming Jiang: Politicians in China have long recognized that the rise of Japan will pose a serious threat to the survival of China. In the competition of national rise and fall, Japan will become the main imaginary enemy of China. 1874, Li Hongzhang once pointed out: "Although Taixi is strong, it is still 70,000 miles away, and Japan is close at hand. Seeing me as true or false is a catastrophe for China forever. " In order to resist Japanese aggression, he almost paid attention to the construction of coastal defense and the formation of Beiyang Navy, and put forward very clearly: "Most people who spare no effort to create a navy today are trying to contain Japan."
As we all know, the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 was a painful scar in China's modern history. In the struggle against Japanese aggression, some officials in China at that time made high-profile anti-Japanese remarks. China's officers and men fought bravely. But on the whole, at that time, China's official strategic guidance and military application were lacking, so nothing was prepared. So the first battle was lost, and every battle was lost. Whether it is the navy equipped with western-style equipment or the relatively backward army, after the war broke out, the army was completely defeated. In just half a year, it completely collapsed in the war. Japan, the warring parties, is eyeing up, prepared and always looking for opportunities. Strategically, Japan is positive. As an opportunity for Japan to intervene and provoke the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, it may be accidental. However, it is a deep-rooted Japanese guiding ideology to train a modern army to fight a decisive battle with China, and finally set foot on the mainland with North Korea as a springboard, so as to dominate the world.
On the other hand, no matter how much money China spent to buy equipment, or not to buy equipment, or not to build the Summer Palace, China was passive in strategy. Japan is seeking to rise, and clearly knows that in the era of the law of the jungle, the rising capital is strength. China and China are preventing the decline. It always thinks that it is the center of the world in order to prevent itself from falling from the center of the world. Some people think that by learning from the modernization of the West, China can avoid falling, while more people in China didn't realize that we were facing a falling position at that time.
At that time, Hurd, a British employee employed by the Qing Dynasty and the chief tax officer of China Customs, made a vivid metaphor, saying, "I'm afraid today's China is still far from real reform. The giant sometimes jumps up and yawns. We thought he was awake and ready to watch him do something great, but after a while, we saw him sit down again, take a sip of tea, light a pipe, yawn and fall asleep in a daze. " This is an image metaphor of China's reform and social situation before and after the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, which was employed by an Englishman in the Qing Dynasty.
Under this circumstance, the Sino-Japanese contradiction broke out in North Korea and is about to rise to the edge of military conflict. Li Hongzhang didn't want to fight, and Li Hongzhang advocated solving the Korean crisis through international mediation. So what is the reason? I think there are about three reasons.
First, he knew in his heart that 1894 was the 60th birthday of Empress Dowager Cixi, which could not be stirred up by a battle. This is the most essential part of China politics, so we don't want to fight.
Second, he knew that China's military revolution in the first 30 years was just a broken house. In fact, defeating Japan is not enough.
Third, he doesn't want to consume his strength in this uncertain decisive battle.
However, as the protagonist of the Westernization Movement, the pioneer of China's modernization and the commander-in-chief of Beiyang Navy, Li Hongzhang also bears direct and unshirkable responsibility for the failure of the Sino-Japanese War. From a historical perspective, I think it includes at least three aspects: diplomacy, employment and military affairs.
First, from a diplomatic point of view, objectively speaking, Li Hongzhang was a pioneer in the ruling group of the Qing Dynasty who had a deep understanding of China's position and constantly made reforms. Seeing the difficult times, he began to admit that China's national strength and equipment were not as good as those of foreign countries, and made efforts to create a peaceful external environment. Unfortunately, weak countries have no diplomacy. From the beginning of the Sino-Japanese War to the end of the Sino-Japanese War, almost all Li Hongzhang's diplomatic efforts ended in failure. He tried to control foreigners by using foreign forces to play balance, but he misjudged the current situation and didn't know much about his competitors, so his results were always played by others. It not only wastes time and energy, but also delays preparation and opportunity.
Second, from the personnel analysis. In the historical process of China's going to the world, our cadre preparation and talent preparation are extremely inadequate. At that time, intellectuals were completely isolated from the changes in western society and the modern western world outside China. In fact, you can't rule the country and level the world with fierce patriotic remarks. Here is an example. At that time, the first navy sent to study in Europe in the Qing Dynasty selected seven people. After these seven people arrived in Germany, they studied military affairs. China's envoy to Germany found that these people were undisciplined in Germany and always made accidents and went out to gamble. There are many jokes. At that time, a German asked him, how did you send such a person to study in Germany? Li, German ambassador to China, replied that this kind of soldier is a rogue child, not a top grade. That is to say, these people, those who are not top grade, are all soldiers. The German immediately asked him, "How could you be so reckless when China sent such a person to a country 70,000 miles away to study in Germany?" ? If I tell your reply to the German Admiralty, wouldn't you seven people be looked down upon even more? This was a basic view of China people on studying in the West at that time, and it was also a great suspicion of Westerners that China sent such people to study in the West.
On the one hand, Li Hongzhang used this kind of people who just graduated from school, and more often he used a group of subordinates who started from the Huai Army. In Liang Qichao's words, it is these people and Li Hongzhang who "share weal and woe in the past, and now share weal and woe". "Take advantage of personal affairs, take on heavy responsibilities, and entrust them with heavy responsibilities, so you can't ask if they have talents, so take advantage of the situation and delay the overall situation." During the Sino-Japanese War of 1894- 1895, we saw that the performance of most front-line commanders, generals and officials in China could be summarized in these words. The outcome of the war can be imagined. This is the man we talked about.
Thirdly, militarily, we can also analyze the application of Beiyang Navy. Li Hongzhang's understanding of such a strategic strike force he built is completely wrong. As we know,19th century is a marine world, and Britain dominates the world with its powerful navy. American Mahan put forward the concept of sea power, which shocked the world. It also promoted American hegemony in the world. Japan regards the ocean as a bridge to Chinese mainland. Regard the fight for sea control as the initiative against China. Therefore, he has been actively seeking opportunities for a strategic decisive battle with Beiyang Navy. In China, China's navy regards the ocean as a defensive barrier. The navy is negatively regarded as the escort force of transport fleets and troop carriers and the auxiliary force of land defense. From the naval operations in Toyoshima, the Yellow Sea and even the Sino-Japanese War, we can see the anti-landing operations in Liaodong, Shandong and Liu Gongdao. These failures all reflect the negative impact of naval strategic mistakes.
China's modern navy has spent a lot of money since its establishment, and it has never sunk an enemy ship, which is enough to explain many deep-seated problems. Objectively speaking, the so-called "Tongguang revival" in the first 30 years was the revival during Tongzhi and Guangxu years. We now call it the Westernization Movement, which introduced western military equipment, educated and trained a Beiyang navy, but failed to accomplish the modernization task of China's army. In particular, a number of officers with high national consciousness and professional standards have not been trained. Did not create an indomitable heroic spirit of sacrificing soldiers. I'm afraid this gap is the real reason why China's army basically collapsed in all foreign national wars in the hundred years after the Opium War and never achieved any success.
It was not until the Second Sino-Japanese War, which we now call War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, that our situation changed. However, War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression depends on the overall victory of the whole international war situation and the anti-fascist forces. It was not China's independent forces that defeated it.
The Sino-Japanese War was a national struggle between China and Japan. Before the war, Japan's strategy was very clear. It will not only defeat China in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894- 1895, but also sever the long-standing ties between North Korea and China. Finally, China was conquered by conquering Korea, and finally Asia was controlled.
In the Sino-Japanese War of 1894- 1895, Japan carried out military expansion according to this strategy. After the war, the Japanese not only seized the sect of * * * against North Korea, but treaty of shimonoseki also forced the Qing Dynasty to cede Taiwan Province Province. Paying huge war reparations made China's economy collapse, and also enabled Japan to use this huge indemnity to complete its military modernization, thus more firmly embarking on the path of militarism, which had a great impact on the subsequent Sino-Japanese relations.
Let me briefly talk about the opportunities brought by treaty of shimonoseki. Japan's actual military expenditure in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1893 was 200 million yen, which was 2.5 times of its normal financial expenditure of 80 million yen 1893. After the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, China paid 200 million taels of silver to Japan. And because of the redemption of Liaodong Peninsula, 30 million taels of silver were added, totaling 230 million taels of silver. This is about 37 million pounds, plus the interest of 3.5 million pounds we pay every year, which is equivalent to 364 million yen. Excluding war expenses, Japan only received reparations from China, that is to say, its war net profit was 65.438+0.7 billion yen. What purpose did the Japanese use this indemnity from China after the war? Japanese military expansion with China's war reparations, from 1896 to 1902. In seven years, the Japanese army's expansion cost reached 54 million yen, and the navy's expansion cost reached1250,000 yen. The total is 65438+79 million yen. This huge sum of money further expanded the Japanese army. In the later Russo-Japanese War, defeating Russia laid a military foundation.
Second, the Japanese paid all the compensation at that time, plus the interest paid by China, worth 40 million pounds, more than 40 million pounds, all of which were deposited in the Scottish Bank of England. Then it raised 72.6 million yen as its silver dollar exchange reserve, completing Japan's monetary reform from silver standard to gold standard. In this way, Japan quickly entered the ranks of modern capitalist countries.
Third, Japan has established three funds with compensation from China. One is to spend 30 million yen to establish a warship mine boat supplementary fund. One is to set up a disaster preparedness fund at a cost of 6.5438+million yen. The third is to set up an education fund of 6.5438 million yen. He said that the money can be used for these three funds in peacetime, and when all these funds are sold in wartime, they can be used for military supplies.
I think the most interesting thing here is that after Japan forced China to pay huge war reparations in treaty of shimonoseki, it allocated 20 million yen to the royal family as a thank-you to the Japanese king for saving the emperor's royal expenses and developing the Japanese navy. Now that Japan has won the war, they have allocated 20 million yen to the royal family for their consumption. This incident coincided with the fact that the royal families of China and Qing Dynasty squandered the limited financial resources of the country before the war, but they did not invest enough in military preparations, and the naval funds were used to build the Summer Palace. This contrast can make people deeply moved.
In this way, we can see that from 1896 to 1897, the Japanese economy began to take off further. Japan's national financial resources have been greatly improved. Since then, the national destiny of China and Japan has rapidly widened after the Sino-Japanese War.
Today's China has long since got rid of the humiliating position of being bullied. The international status and comprehensive national strength have undergone earth-shaking changes. Today, we come to commemorate the Sino-Japanese War and War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, not only to remember the history, but also to have far-reaching practical significance. In recent decades, we have had an environment of peaceful development. In our students' own feelings, war and turmoil seem to be quite distant news in other countries, which is our talk after dinner. In fact, we are still in a turbulent and changing international environment. After the end of the cold war, the changes in the international environment and the rise and fall of various forces make it necessary for us to look at China's development strategy with a brand-new perspective. Seize the rare period of strategic opportunities.
For each of us in China, 2 1 century is an important historical period for our Chinese nation to realize national rejuvenation. We hope for peaceful rise, but peaceful rise does not depend on unilateral good wishes. The complicated international situation and the rapidly changing situation in Taiwan Province all remind us to always review history and be prepared for danger in times of peace. Really build our country well.
Moderator: Thank you Mr. Ming Jiang for his speech. Indeed, looking back at history, we can learn a lot from it. In particular, it has had some shocking effects on the situation we are facing today. Here is a question I want to talk to you about, because many people think that looking at the modern naval history of China and their failures actually reflects all kinds of difficulties and hardships in the process of modernization in China. So according to your research, especially the study of China's modern naval history, what do you think is the most fundamental problem of the failure of China's modernization?
Ming Jiang: I think the most fundamental problem is that China has not felt the change of the system in this reform. In essence, it is to paste the broken house with some materials to maintain the old feudal order. If this change is not fundamentally changed, the change of material and material level will not revive China, nor will it make China find its own way out in the crisis from outside.
Moderator: Then why can Japan's reform touch its system in the process of modernization? But China's reform can't touch the essence?
Ming Jiang: I think this is Japan. It should be said that it caught such a (fundamental) thing. His Meiji Restoration captured Japan, that is, in the turbulent changes in the19th century, it learned a whole set of systems from the political system to modern scientific knowledge to education in the West. In China, feudal things were very strong at that time. This is only the study of fur, the study of material level and object level. This is a big difference.
Moderator: In addition, since your topic of today's speech also mentioned Li Hongzhang, I think Li Hongzhang is also a figure that everyone is very concerned about. In fact, for Li Hongzhang, I think many of our audience here should be very clear that his characterization and image have changed greatly at least in the experience of our generation. When I was a child, in textbooks, history books would describe him as a traitor and betray China's territory. Then a few years ago, there seemed to be some TV dramas, including "Towards the Republic". This also shaped him into another character. Said he was an outstanding diplomat and an outstanding politician. But later some scholars pointed out that he still had many problems. He didn't escape the hidden rules of China officialdom. He will take bribes and is not an ideal politician as people think. So since you study modern history, what do you think of him?
Ming Jiang: I think Li Hongzhang is a tragic figure in the historical process of China. He has duality. On the one hand, Li Hongzhang was one of the middle and senior officials in modern China who knew the west best, and he had a world vision and a series of reform measures. All these made him play a supporting role and prevented the building and house from collapsing soon. On the other hand, as I have just analyzed, Li Hongzhang is a feudal bureaucrat after all, and he is not a modern bourgeois politician. I think there were two extremes in the history field. One extreme is to criticize our predecessors with an ideology, that is to say, Li Hongzhang signed a treaty, and China failed, so you have to bear it, because you signed this contract and you are a traitor. I think it is superficial to say that the person who signed the contract is a traitor. From an objective point of view, you shouldn't simply say who signed the treaty, just do what you want, right? From this perspective, Li Hongzhang had his sense of responsibility at that time. However, I don't quite agree, that is to say, I think Li Hongzhang can defend everything for him. Therefore, he is a reformed politician, so that's it. After all, he is responsible for the failure of China's modernization. Qing * * * once gave him a lot of trust and power, but these things were not done in the end, and he also had his own responsibilities.
Moderator: Next is a question from a netizen. His name is "The Ghost of Liu Gongdao". He said that China's modern navy was finally defeated by the Japanese. In fact, it should be very common to talk about corruption of naval officers. So how serious was the corruption at that time? What is the cause of this corruption? Why is corruption so common in China today, more than one hundred years later?