Judging from the development trend of the current international situation, the author believes that the main line of international political struggle will be the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world for a long time to come, and this conflict is largely a conflict between civilizations. The emergence and development of the conflict between the United States and Iraq is inevitable, and we must never underestimate the intensity and long-term nature of this conflict. This is of great significance for us to study strategy and consider countermeasures.
The conflict between the United States and Iraq: a new reality that must be faced
The author has always believed that after the war in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda has been torn apart, and bin Laden, like the leader of the Taliban regime, has become an outdated historical figure. However, this does not mean the end of the anti-American struggle of Islamic extremist forces. On the contrary, the disintegration of Al Qaeda may herald the climax of the conflict between the Islamic world and the United States. The development of the world situation in the past two years has proved this point. Nowadays, Islamic anti-American extremist forces have spread everywhere and blossomed everywhere. They don't have a "global network", the same procedures and unified command, but they go their own way and come and go without a trace. Where there are anti-American and anti-Western "jihad", there are these people. Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand … are all their battlefields. Today's "Al Qaeda" and bin Laden are just a symbol, a banner under which all Islamic anti-American forces gather. The conflict between the United States and the Islamic world has become a new reality that the world must face today.
Some people may disagree with the statement that "the United States is in conflict with the Islamic world" and think that the Islamic world is not a whole, but dozens of various countries. Others believe that not all Islamic countries are anti-American, and many Islamic governments (such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and the newly established governments in Afghanistan and Iraq) are pro-American, while only a few countries and organizations are anti-American. Indeed, the Islamic world is a huge and mixed system, including the governments of various Islamic countries, ordinary Muslims and various Islamic extremist forces. However, as long as you are in any Islamic country, you can feel strong anti-American sentiment in society. Even the ruling groups of "pro-American" countries are incompatible with the United States on many issues. In the past, this kind of confrontation and conflict between the United States and the Islamic world was still latent and unknown, but after the "9. 1 1 incident", especially after the United States launched the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the conflict between the United States and Iraq has become clear and open.
In the huge system of the Islamic world, anti-American extremist forces are only the tip of the iceberg. But it represents a widespread emotion and tendency in the Islamic world, so it can get the support and sympathy of many people. For example, Al-Qaida personnel are not all from anti-American countries, but from the whole Islamic world, and many from "friendly" countries in the United States: for example, bin Laden is Saudi, the second person, Zawahri, is Egyptian, the third person, Zarqawi, is Jordanian, Mathias is Palestinian, Zahrani is Saudi, Omar Saif is Afghan, and amjad Farrucci, who was recently killed, is Indian.
For strategic reasons, the United States did not openly say "the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world." But both government officials and ordinary people privately think that this is a "war with Islam." Although President Bush said that "we are against terrorism, not Islam", what he blurted out again and again was "a new crusade". He crossed the line against terrorism and said, "Either stand on our side or stand on their side." The goal of the United States is clear, that is, to transform the Middle East and the Islamic world with American values, political system and lifestyle.
The author believes that what we are facing today is indeed the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world. Although it seems that one side of the conflict is Islamic extremist forces represented by bin Laden and Al Qaeda, and the other side is American "neoconservative" forces represented by George W. Bush and Rumsfeld, behind bin Laden and Al Qaeda is the whole Islamic world, and behind George W. Bush and others is the whole United States and even the whole western world. The direct conflict is the extremist forces of both sides, but the essence of the conflict is two civilizations and two worlds.
The inevitable conflict between the United States and Iraq
The hatred of the Islamic world towards the United States and the West was not formed in a day or two or a year or two, but accumulated over decades and hundreds of years. This is a deep-rooted hatred.
In the eyes of Muslims, the United States has inherited the mantle of the old colonialists in the West, exploited Islamic countries economically, robbed oil and other resources, and kept Islamic countries marginalized in globalization. The United States exported a large number of western values to Islamic countries and carried out cultural aggression against them, which defiled the sacred Islamic beliefs and destroyed the traditional Islamic society. The United States continues to suppress and attack the Islamic world politically and militarily, and even directly invades it. Long-term support for Israel and suppression of Palestine; Long-term blockades and sanctions against Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria and other countries; They successively launched the Gulf War, the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War, occupied Islamic territory and slaughtered the Islamic people. In their view, the United States is really a "devil" who does evil and deserves to die.
In the eyes of Americans, Islamic world is a symbol of fanaticism, ignorance, backwardness and failure. They believe that most Islamic countries are dictatorial, autocratic and corrupt politically, and have neither democracy nor human rights. They blindly oppose the west and modernization; They are ideological, fanatical and aggressive, and the Islamic world has been in turmoil for a long time, which may spread to other parts of the world; The pursuit of weapons of mass destruction by Islamic extremists is a great threat to the free world. Many Americans (including famous scholars Huntington and Fukuyama) believe that the biggest threat to the United States after the Cold War comes from the Islamic world, which is the "real enemy" of western democracy.
With the rise of "neo-conservatism" in American politics, George W. Bush and others have repeatedly emphasized "the leading role of the United States in the world" and advocated the establishment of a "new world order" based on American values and ideals. The powerful strength and strong sense of mission of the United States made the Bush administration put forward a plan to transform the Middle East and the Islamic world as a precursor to the establishment of American global hegemony. The "9. 1 1 incident" accelerated the pace of the United States to transform the Islamic world. American neoconservatives believe that the Middle East is a hotbed of terrorism and Islam is the soil of terrorism. George W. Bush and others claimed that Muslim extremists hate the United States "because they hate our values, beliefs, culture, system and way of life", but denied that this hatred has a causal relationship with American policies.
Muslims believe that the United States has launched all-round political, economic, military and cultural attacks on the Islamic world, and the Islamic world is facing unprecedented threats. It is the sacred duty of Muslims to defend their beliefs, homeland and culture. They said it was just to resist evil and aggression, and it was a real "jihad". "Jihad" can be done with a pen and mouth, as well as a knife and sword. Islamic extremists believe that in order to resist the evil United States and defend the sacred Islam, they can use any means to carry out "jihad" anywhere until they give their lives. And this "any means" includes all kinds of "terrorism" that people see. Therefore, it is not difficult for people to understand why "suicide" attacks emerge one after another, and why so many "terrorists" move forward one after another and die.
One side has a strong sense of global mission and great strength, and wants to unify the world with its own values, culture, ideas and systems, while the other side has a strong self-awareness and rebellious spirit, and will do its best to resist the transformation and "unification" of the other side. This is the essence of the conflict between the United States and Iraq and the inevitability of this conflict.
If Americans do not change their way of thinking and behavior, and do not fundamentally eliminate the root causes of the conflict, it is difficult to see the end of the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world. Although the United States is powerful, it is not easy to conquer the Islamic world with a population of more than one billion, a vast territory, a heavy history and rich resources. Especially in the face of the covert and sudden guerrilla tactics of Islamic extremists, the huge American military machine is basically ineffective. The powerful power of the United States can destroy any country, but it is helpless to the erratic and mysterious "terrorists". Where is the way out to solve the conflict? Only the United States can change its course, give up the policy of being independent and dominating the world, and ease the contradiction with the Islamic world through peaceful dialogue among civilizations. Only through communication and dialogue can the problem be fundamentally solved.
In fact, it is impossible for the United States to change its policy. No matter whether the Democratic Party comes to power, whether it follows the Party, whether Bush is president or Christian, the United States will never give up its world "mission" and world leadership. The Islamic world on the defensive will not give up resistance and be at the mercy of the United States. Especially Islamic extremist forces, will not change their way of thinking and struggle. Therefore, the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world will be long-term and will dominate the development of the world situation for a long time to come.
Islamic World-The Terminator of American Hegemony?
After "911incident", the United States launched the global war on terrorism. But three years later, the United States has not become safer and the world has not become more stable. On the contrary, because the United States has drawn many countries into the "anti-terrorism" camp and passed on the terrorist threat to many other countries, the conflict between the Islamic world and the United States has become "global". It can be said that Bush stirred up a hornet's nest in Afghanistan and Iraq, but now he wants the whole world to bear the consequences together.
At present, the conflict between the United States and the Islamic world has entered a new climax. After the United States sent troops to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, the anti-American wave set off by Islamic extremist forces became higher and higher. Especially after the US military's "prisoner abuse incident" in Iraq was exposed, the anti-American sentiment in the Islamic world was even higher. Anti-American extremist forces call for a more violent "jihad" against "infidels." All kinds of terrorist violence against the United States and the West are happening all over the world, and the frequency of major terrorist attacks has increased from two years before "9. 1 1" to more than twice a year. Attacks, explosions, kidnappings and killings of hostages in Iraq continue. Iraq has become a gathering place of various Islamic extremist forces and a window to show the struggle between Islamic extremists and Americans.
The United States launched the Iraq war not only to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime, but also to change the entire Islamic world. The United States originally thought that as long as Saddam Hussein's regime was defeated, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Libya and other "evil" Islamic countries might fall apart and bow to their knees. If they dare to continue to resist, the United States will clean them up one by one after cleaning up Iraq. Now that the United States has been arrested in Iraq, it is really a great encouragement to the entire Islamic world.
Why is it "more anti-terrorism"? The fundamental reason is that the Bush administration adheres to a tough policy, does whatever it wants, uses excessive force, harms the innocent, and pushes more and more people to the ranks of Islamic extremism. Under the hegemonic acts of the United States, Islamic extremists are not less, but more. Although many Muslims are anti-American and anti-Western, they do not advocate resorting to violence and are "marginal people" between "moderate" and "extreme". However, under the aggressive offensive of the United States, they have no choice but to join the ranks of extremist forces. People have seen that in some recent suicide "terrorist attacks", the attackers were actually women and children. Of course, people can think that they have been deceived and become "terrorists". Anyone's life is precious, and no one will give up his life easily. Only in the most desperate moment will people exchange their lives for hope. It should be said that "suicide attack" is always a heavy and helpless topic.
There is no doubt that the United States is the most powerful country today and the undisputed world hegemon. Just like the "peace under Roman rule" and "peace under British rule" experienced in history, it is considered as "peace under American rule" today. However, any hegemony will eventually decline. It may not be China, Russia or Europe that will end "American hegemony", but the Islamic world is likely to continue to struggle and resist. Everything has its vanquisher. Today, no country can compete with a behemoth and superpower like the United States. Only invisible Islamic extremist forces can challenge it.
In the conflict between the United States and Iraq, although the strength of the two sides is asymmetric, the way of struggle is also asymmetric. The United States has paid a high price for "anti-terrorism". In Iraq alone, by February 2005, the number of American soldiers killed had reached 1668, more than 6,000 people were injured, and the military expenditure was as high as150 billion US dollars. Nevertheless, the United States has not reduced the threat it faces, let alone eliminated it. In this way, the strength of the United States may be gradually exhausted in the contest with Islamic forces. Have you noticed that many great empires from ancient times to the present are constantly impacted by some seemingly insignificant "weak forces", gradually squandered and finally collapsed, instead of being defeated by another new "rising" force. In the past, the huge Roman Empire finally perished in the invasion of barbarians. At that time, the powerful British empire was destroyed in the resistance struggle of the colonial people, and the Soviet Union, a contemporary superpower, also collapsed in internal troubles and foreign invasion.
Under the current complicated and changeable situation, we should strengthen our understanding and research on the Islamic world, including the study of its way of thinking, political system, social situation and religious culture, as well as the study of the attitudes of all walks of life in Islamic society towards the United States and "terrorism." It should be said that now we have a deeper study of the United States and a better understanding of it. But how much do we know about the Islamic world, the other side of the conflict? If we know something about Islamic extremism because it frequently appears in the media, then we know too little about ordinary Muslims who constitute the main body of Islamic society. We know little about their thoughts, behaviors and lifestyles, and their views on the world.
Why are Islamic extremist forces so attractive, and why are "terrorists" constantly appearing in Islamic society? We can only understand and explain it according to our own way of thinking, thinking that all this is "irrational" and even simply thinking that Islam is "primitive", "fanatical" and "ignorant". On the other hand, we should also have a correct understanding of the overall strength of the Islamic world. We tend to underestimate the power of the Islamic world, thinking that it will certainly be vulnerable in the confrontation with the United States. In fact, the Islamic world has a long tradition of confronting the West. When it conflicts with the outside world, it has strong internal cohesion. In addition, China has a large population, a vast territory and abundant resources, and its strength cannot be underestimated. Especially when it is suppressed, its toughness is amazing.
At present, most of our information about the Islamic world comes from the west, and we seldom hear the voice of the Islamic world itself. This asymmetry of information resources makes us puzzled by many phenomena and behaviors in the Islamic world, and even has many wrong views and prejudices. Listen to the opinions of all parties. In short, we should have a more comprehensive understanding of Islamic civilization and Islamic society, so as to make a scientific judgment on the inevitability, protracted nature and complexity of the conflict between the Islamic world and the United States and take correct countermeasures. Xiao Xian: Han nationality, dean, professor and doctoral supervisor of School of International Relations, Yunnan University. Monographs include Islamic Renaissance Movement and Kemal Reform.