In this round of global economic crisis, the number of foreign trade enterprises in southern Jiangsu is far less than that in Zhejiang and Guangdong. However, the vitality of Zhejiang foreign trade private enterprises to explore emerging markets has attracted the attention of Jiangsu and Guangdong, which are trapped by foreign capital. Foreign capital and private capital in China's foreign trade need to complement each other, and we won't know who is swimming naked until a huge phalanx to be transformed recedes.

China's coastal provinces with different industrial structures and development strategies are far from being able to resist foreign trade risks in the financial crisis.

The extensional open economy dominated by foreign enterprises in southern Jiangsu, the endogenous open economy dominated by private enterprises in Zhejiang, and the mixed open economy dominated by foreign enterprises and private enterprises in some parts of Guangdong provide fresh samples for studying the structural adjustment of foreign trade to some extent.

Our reporter investigated the three most representative coastal economic zones in China, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which accounted for 26.7%, 15.3% and 8.2% of China's foreign trade respectively. Shanghai ranks the third in the national foreign trade, but it was not included in the survey because of the many elements of entrepot trade in Shanghai's trade structure? c？ C's foreign trade performance in the financial crisis, exploring the driving force of industrial structure and the path of industrial upgrading behind it.

An interesting phenomenon is that the higher the degree of openness, the stronger the ability to resist the financial crisis. An intuitive example is that the number of business failures in southern Jiangsu, which is dominated by foreign-funded enterprises and has a high industrial level, is far less than that in Zhejiang and Guangdong. However, the financial crisis objectively delayed the withdrawal of foreign companies.

However, on the other side of the coin, the vitality of private enterprises to explore emerging markets makes Jiangsu and Guangdong, which are surrounded by foreign capital, covet.

The slogan of relying on foreign capital and private capital to walk on two legs has been ringing all over the country for many years, but few people really understand it in coastal economic zones. The trace of path dependence and crowding-out effect behind this are particularly worthy of attention.

The dispute over the development model of export-oriented economy between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta provinces has been going on for many years. The financial crisis is a test and an important node.

In the past few years, Li, a native of Taiwan Province who lives in Kunshan, has been helping Taiwanese businessmen to set up various new factories. He is the chairman of Taiwan Province Han Bang Enterprise Management Company.

With the outbreak of the financial crisis, Li has not received the business of opening a new factory for half a year. He had a brainwave, paid attention to the financial crisis, and began to increase business to help Taiwanese businessmen close factories. But to his surprise, although Taiwanese businessmen admit that the intensity of the financial crisis is unprecedented, there are still only a handful of Taiwan-funded enterprises that actually apply to close their factories.

"At present, most of the bankruptcies are small and medium-sized Taiwan-funded enterprises, which use too much financial leverage. Most Taiwan-funded enterprises can successfully tide over this difficulty. " Li pondered that although layoffs of Taiwan-funded enterprises in Kunshan are very common at present, it is really rare for Taiwan-funded enterprises to close down in this round of financial crisis.

Li Hongmei, director of Compal's computer management department, told reporters that Taiwanese businessmen in Kunshan were much more affected by the financial crisis than expected. For example, she said that OEM giants like Compal did not have large-scale layoffs, and upstream and downstream supporting manufacturers rarely heard that their operations were unsustainable.

According to the statistics of local authorities, in 2008, 37 enterprises closed down in Kunshan alone, including 22 Taiwan-funded enterprises, most of which were small and medium-sized supporting enterprises. Kunshan is the place with the highest processing trade intensity in Jiangsu.

From June, 5438 to early February, 2008, the high-standard investigation group sent by Suzhou Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau came to the conclusion after visiting Guangdong and Zhejiang: "The areas with excellent economic structure and high industrial level have shown good resistance and development potential."

This conclusion is by no means accidental.

In 2008+065438+1October, 2008+February and 2009+1October, the import and export of processing trade in Jiangsu decreased by 15.6%, 17.8% and 37.8% respectively. Compared with Guangdong and Zhejiang, although the foreign trade import and export data in southern Jiangsu has dropped sharply, the survival crisis of enterprises in southern Jiangsu is not as strong as that in Pearl River Delta and Zhejiang.

According to the statistics of Guangdong Economic and Trade Commission, from June to September 2008, the total number of closed enterprises in the province was 7 148. From a regional perspective, the largest number of closed enterprises in Dongguan is 1464. In addition, there are 704 in Shenzhen and 526 in Foshan. In the month of June 5438+ 10, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises that stopped production in Guangdong province reached 85 13, which was greater than the sum of the previous three quarters.

Liu Huanquan, director of the Guangdong Small and Medium Enterprises Bureau, said that these closed enterprises involved textiles and clothing, hardware and plastics, electronic products, ceramic building materials and other industries, mostly traditional, low-tech and high-energy.

Among them, Hong Kong and Taiwan-funded enterprises account for a considerable proportion of the total number of enterprises in Guangdong.

Statistics from Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics show that in 2007, foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan accounted for 42.8% of all industries above designated size, and the total industrial output value accounted for 6 1. 1%. SMEs account for more than 99.8% of all registered enterprises in Guangdong Province.

In addition, the high market concentration is an important factor for the rapid decline of Guangdong's foreign trade. The United States is the largest export market in Guangdong Province. In 2008, Guangdong's direct and indirect exports to the United States accounted for about 40% of Guangdong's total exports.

The end may have been predicted as early as 10 years ago.

Through the last round of intensive investment attraction, Sunan established the leading position of advanced manufacturing industry in a short time and laid a good industrial pattern. Although it is highly dependent on foreign countries, it has a strong ability to resist risks.

At present, in Suzhou's foreign trade structure, electronic products, optics, inspection, medical devices, chemical products and other high-tech categories account for the vast majority. In contrast, the proportion of traditional industries such as textiles has dropped to about 5%.

"Suzhou's advanced manufacturing industry, although many key technologies are still mastered by foreign businessmen, is still far higher than traditional industries in terms of its own manufacturing level, and it is getting higher and higher." Zhang Erzhen, director of the International Trade Department of Nanjing University, said.

At present, the value-added rate of Jiangsu's mechanical and electrical products processing trade (processing trade export-processing trade import) has increased from 23.2% in 2004 to 70.7% in 2007? c？ C this indicator shows that the added value of Jiangsu's production and processing links has greatly increased in recent years.

Li still remembers the scene when Taiwanese businessmen first arrived in Dongguan many years ago. "It feels like a' cowboy society', full of vitality but somewhat chaotic, and the government's sense of service is poor, making it difficult for Taiwanese businessmen to feel a sense of belonging."

Later, a large number of Taiwanese businessmen came to Kunshan near Shanghai. Great changes have taken place in the investment environment under the vigorous rectification of the local government? c？ C Many Taiwanese businessmen, large and small, have personally called the local party and government leaders, and things from factories to children's schooling can always be solved satisfactorily.

In a short time, a large number of advanced manufacturing industries represented by IT industry gathered in Kunshan. Kunshan's processing trade stood at a high starting point from the beginning? c？ C The industrial chain is longer, the manufacturing level is higher, the domestic quality of enterprise is higher, and the added value of processing trade is higher.

The reporter learned from the Office of the Leading Group for Promoting Employment in Suzhou that although the unemployment rate in Suzhou has increased since 5,438+10 in June last year with the outbreak of the financial crisis, with the increase of export tax rebate rate of some processing trade products and the resumption of orders of foreign-funded enterprises, the demand for labor in Suzhou has increased again after the Spring Festival, and some regions and enterprises even experienced the phenomenon of lack of work. To some extent, this shows that once the market demand picks up, the economic rebound in southern Jiangsu and other places is still very rapid.

"A very important phenomenon in this financial crisis is that the deeper the integration into the international division of labor system, the higher the degree of openness, but the stronger the ability to resist risks." Zhang Erzhen, director of the Department of International Trade of Nanjing University, said that the industrial structure in southern Jiangsu is dominated by advanced manufacturing industries such as IT and precision machinery, and the industrial chain is relatively long, forming an agglomeration of advanced industrial belts. Moreover, foreign-funded enterprises have relatively strong ability to resist risks, and there will be no large number of closures in the short term.

For southern Jiangsu, the biggest crisis may come from the threat of transnational capital withdrawal? c？ In the past few years, this threat has been like a sword hanging over the economy of southern Jiangsu, lingering.

Will foreign companies leave Chinese mainland on a large scale under the financial crisis?

I don't know when it started, but Taiwanese businessmen in Kunshan were surprised to find that the cost of opening a factory in the Yangtze River Delta was very close to that of Taiwan Province Island.

Li Suan, chairman of Taiwan Province Enterprise Management Company, explained that the house price in Shanghai is equivalent to NT$ 250,000 /m2, while that in Kaohsiung, the second largest city in Taiwan Province Province is only NT$ 654.38+ 10,000? C65438+200,000/m2. Kunshan's industrial land is also soaring, and the increasingly tense development zone can no longer accommodate some Taiwan-funded enterprises with smaller investment scale.

In Taiwan Province Province, 4,000 yuan can recruit a college graduate, but in Chinese mainland, this price may not be able to recruit a graduate from a famous university.

With the launch of the three links between the two sides of the strait, some trendy ideas have caused heated discussion among Taiwanese businessmen on both sides of the strait. For example, some Taiwan-funded enterprises proposed that 70% of the production processes should be located in mainland China, and the remaining 30% should be completed in Taiwan Province Province, and then exported under the label of "made in taiwan".

But with the advent of the financial crisis, these ideas are likely to stay in the discussion stage for a long time.

Two years ago, when Compal Computer went to Vietnam to inspect the location of a potential new factory, Li was invited as a consultant.

"The OEM industry in Taiwan Province Province will always follow the leading enterprises. If a leading enterprise like Compal moves away, it will take away a large number of Taiwan-funded supporting manufacturers. " Li analyzed.

However, it was proved afterwards that Compal's practice was only "for the mainland government to see", which was intended to be used as a bargaining chip to move out in exchange for more policies in the Yangtze River Delta.

"If you go to these places in Vietnam to see for yourself, the comprehensive cost is not necessarily much lower than Kunshan." The infrastructure mentioned by Li is very poor, such as the communication cost, which is much higher than that. "Taiwan businessmen spend a lot of money on conference calls", and the construction cost and logistics cost in Vietnam are relatively high. After the financial crisis broke out in Vietnam in 2008, many Taiwan-funded enterprises were disappointed.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwanese capital was once notorious for its migratory habits like migratory birds. In the past few decades, the OEM industry in Taiwan Province Province has moved from Taiwan Province Province to the Pearl River Delta, and then from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta. Since then, there have been endless rumors that Taiwanese capital will continue to travel from the Yangtze River Delta to lower-cost places such as Vietnam.

Every trouble with Taiwan capital will cause quite a stir in southern Jiangsu. When Taiwanese capital entered Kunshan on a large scale, it was predicted that once foreign capital was withdrawn on a large scale, it would be a devastating blow to the local economy.

But after years of development, Kunshan has been deeply embedded in the life of Taiwanese businessmen. Moreover, the main customers of Taiwanese businessmen are concentrated near Kunshan, "which has become the operation center of Taiwan-funded enterprises." Li said with deep feelings. The biggest difference between Dongguan and Dongguan is that many people in Taiwan Province Province regard it as their home? c？ Thousands of Taiwan Province people have settled in Kunshan.

"The local government is very considerate of Taiwanese investment," Li said. The government here even helped Taiwanese businessmen organize funerals. In fact, the system construction of Kunshan government in recent years has also been completed with the high participation of Taiwanese businessmen.

More importantly, a very complete IT industry chain has gathered here. According to a survey conducted by Suzhou Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau, most of the spare parts needed by foreign businessmen can be matched around.

After years of "mending the chain to attract investment" and "changing the cage for the phoenix", the development zones in southern Jiangsu have formed a complete industrial chain of advanced manufacturing industry.

In the recent work plan, Suzhou Industrial Park clearly highlights "high-point positioning, increasing investment promotion and capital selection". Specifically, it is to "strengthen investment in industrial clusters and industrial chains and introduce a number of core components and core supporting projects". Similar statements frequently appear in the work plans of various counties and cities in Suzhou. Kunshan is paying close attention to "refined investment promotion", recruiting shortcomings and shifting the focus of investment promotion to the new three pillar industries such as photoelectricity, new materials and new energy and the current service industry.

A report provided to this newspaper by Taiwan Province 104 Human Bank shows that during the financial crisis, more and more Taiwan-funded enterprises began to turn to the mainland domestic demand market. A typical example is that Taiwan-funded enterprises have begun to localize their employment in order to increase their understanding of the mainland market.

Compared with the double crisis experience of foreign enterprises, private enterprises also have a strong double performance in the financial crisis. This is particularly obvious in Zhejiang, which is dominated by private economy.

As far as foreign trade data is concerned, Zhejiang is really the envy of "brother provinces".

From June 5438 to June 2009 10, the national foreign trade experienced an unprecedented decline, and the national import and export decreased by 29%. Among them, the total import and export volume of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai decreased by 3 1.65, 438+0%, 32.2% and 29.5% respectively, while that of Zhejiang only decreased by 17.4%, far slower than the national average.

In 2008, when the Ministry of Commerce shouted "import and export growth 15% is the bottom line", only Zhejiang, a major foreign trade province in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, achieved an annual growth of 19.4%. In contrast, the growth rates of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai in 2008 were only 7.7%, 12.2% and 13.9% respectively.

In an exclusive interview with this reporter, Jin Yonghui, director of the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department of Zhejiang Province, attributed the relative stability of Zhejiang's foreign trade to "the vitality of Zhejiang's private economy, advanced manufacturing industry and block economy are still there, and the institutional advantages are still obvious."

Jin yonghui cited a set of data to prove this conclusion: in 2008, the proportion of private enterprises in Zhejiang's exports has increased to 5 1.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over 2007? c？ Before and after c 2006 54 38+0 entered the market, the proportion of private enterprises in Zhejiang's exports was only 10%. At present, Zhejiang has become the largest export province for private enterprises.

But this is only one side of the coin.

Before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis, there was a wave of bankruptcies in Zhejiang, and news about bosses' "running away" kept coming out. The latest report on the living conditions of private enterprises released by Zhejiang Industrial and Commercial Bureau shows that in 2008, 22,000 private enterprises in Zhejiang were cancelled, with the highest death toll in six years.

After the huge losses of Hualian Sanxin Futures, the related guarantee case of Shaoxing textile giant and the usury in Wenzhou, Zhejiang's economic and social stability was challenged, and the local media was full of reports that Zhejiang bosses committed suicide and fled. The collapse of Feiyue, an industry giant, can be imagined as a blow to the local economy.

At present, in Zhejiang's export structure, high-tech products only account for 6.87%, and mechanical and electrical products only account for 44. 12%. While in Jiangsu, it is 43.8% and 74.4% respectively. At the same time, Zhejiang textile and garment exports accounted for 27.39%.

In contrast, the economic structure of southern Jiangsu, which is dominated by foreign companies, shows stronger ability to resist risks.

"The high capital ownership rate of Taiwanese businessmen in Kunshan is an important reason for their strong ability to resist risks." Fei Li, a professor at Taiwan Province Economic Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that it is difficult for enterprises in Taiwan Province Province to obtain bank loans, so enterprises in Taiwan Province Province often invest their property in Taiwan Province Province, with few loans and little use of financial leverage.

In addition, Taiwanese businessmen have experienced many world economic crises and are relatively mature in coping with them. Compared with private enterprises in Zhejiang and low-end processing enterprises in Guangdong, Taiwanese businessmen in Kunshan, who are mainly engaged in OEM, have fewer bad debts and higher capital turnover rate, which enables them to persist for a longer time.

Therefore, although the phenomenon of layoffs and production reduction has been very common in Kunshan Taiwanese businessmen gathering area, the phenomenon of large-scale enterprise closure has not appeared.

However, Zhang Handong, director of Zhejiang International Trade Research Center, believes that the closure of almost all enterprises in Zhejiang can be attributed to one point: the broken capital chain is not necessarily related to the sluggish external demand market. "The closure of these enterprises is not simply because there are no orders, but because of the tightening of national macro policies." Zhang Handong said.

"In previous macro-control, Zhejiang's private enterprises have been the hardest hit group." Zhang Handong said that although the closure of enterprises has its own reasons, it is "largely due to policies". The round of macro-control that began at the end of 2007 was too intensive, without considering the affordability of enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises have always been the biggest victims of the national credit crunch.

Huang, deputy director of the Department of International Trade of Zhejiang University, pointed out that Zhejiang private enterprises have always been small and scattered, and their ability to resist risks is naturally limited. "However, many private enterprises in Zhejiang are only temporarily closed down. When the economy picks up, enterprises will emerge rapidly, which in itself can be understood as an ability to resist risks. " Huang said:

Huang also pointed out that although some private enterprises in Zhejiang closed down, the vitality of private enterprises in this financial crisis can not be ignored.

For example, the channel advantage of Zhejiang private enterprises is an important secret to fight the financial crisis.

In Dubai alone, nearly 10,000 Zhejiang businessmen are active. Wenzhou businessmen who are famous for their enterprising spirit are more active in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Huang stressed that most of these businessmen are mainly engaged in trade, peddling Zhejiang goods everywhere, with flexible methods and well-founded advance and retreat.

Facts have proved that these flexible marketing networks are very effective in exploring emerging markets. In 2008, the growth rate of Zhejiang's exports to emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa and Oceania remained above 40%. Exports to Russia, Iran, India and other countries exceed 50%.

Reflected in the export destination, the proportion of developed countries in Europe and America in Zhejiang's total exports has further declined, dispersing the risks brought by the financial crisis.

In addition, overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions of Zhejiang enterprises have also grown rapidly, ranking first in the country. Youngor, Wanxiang and Qianjiang Motorcycle have all acquired a certain number of enterprises overseas. These overseas assets are closely related to the domestic parent company, and raw materials, semi-finished products and spare parts are exported from China, which effectively incites the growth of foreign trade exports.

Xu Tianjiang, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Jialike, who has been engaged in mining business in Africa for a long time, told reporters that Zhejiang Construction Bank has developed a number of new products for China enterprises developing in Africa, and the effect is very remarkable.

"People from Zhejiang Construction Bank will come to the door every three days to understand the needs of the enterprises we want to go out and help solve practical difficulties. Without them, many of our businesses could not be carried out at all. " Xu Tianjiang said.

In Guangdong, the rise and rapid expansion of private high-tech enterprises represented by Huawei and ZTE in emerging markets can not be ignored.

Wang Haidong, who has just been sent to Nigeria for a business trip for half a year and is in charge of the construction of the "Guangdong-Nepal Economic Cooperation Zone", told reporters that "Huawei and ZTE have absolute advantages in the local communication market."

According to Huawei's data, with its high cost performance and excellent quality, Huawei's share in the African market is as high as 44%. According to the report of EJL Wireless Research Company, the demand for base stations in 2008 is still mainly concentrated in Asia-Pacific and Africa, so only in the third quarter of 2008, 69% of the global base station contracts were controlled by original equipment manufacturers from China. According to Huawei's forecast, the company's contracted sales will reach 30 billion US dollars in 2009.

"Although Huawei and ZTE have not broken through the mainstream markets in Europe and America on a large scale, in emerging markets, Huawei and ZTE have obvious advantages." Wang Haidong said.

In contrast, the sales channels of industrial products in southern Jiangsu are subject to foreign businessmen everywhere, and the export market is too concentrated in developed countries such as the United States, the European Union and Japan. When the pockets of Europeans and Americans are shrinking, Jiangsu's import and export trade volume has dropped rapidly.

In this round of crisis in Guangdong, the situation of private enterprises and foreign enterprises is different.

Among the four little dragons in Guangdong, the South China Sea is the least affected.

In 2008, the GDP of the South China Sea maintained a growth rate of 16.5%, which was much higher than the average level of the whole province. Compared with other cities in the Pearl River Delta that were passive in this financial crisis, Nanhai is full of confidence in its subsequent development.

Among them, the mixture of private economy and foreign capital economy has played an important role.

The traditional industrial structure of the South China Sea is dominated by the private economy? c？ This traditional manufacturing industry paid a heavy price in the financial crisis. A recent research report of Nanhai District Government obtained by our reporter shows that in 2008, more than 2,000 enterprises in Nanhai were closed.

Xie Xiaoyun, director of the South China Sea Policy Research Office, explained to reporters, "Most of these small and medium-sized enterprises, which are deeply affected by the financial crisis, belong to traditional industries in the South China Sea, and most of them are private enterprises with weak financial strength."

However, the introduction of advanced manufacturing industry led by foreign capital has played down the impact of the crisis to some extent.

"Emerging industries representing the new development direction of the South China Sea have brought high economic benefits to the South China Sea. They have not been greatly affected by this financial crisis, and they have also promoted the improvement of their supporting enterprises' ability to resist risks. " Xie Xiaoyun said.

Xie's new industry refers to the adjustment of industrial planning in the South China Sea in the previous two years. While limiting and eliminating a number of traditional industries with high pollution and high energy consumption, he introduced Chimei and Honda transmissions from Taiwan Province Province, and moved Guangdong's high-end financial back-office services to the South China Sea.

"The presence of Yamazaki Electronics can drive an industrial chain of 100 billion yuan." Wu Shuo, Deputy Director of Nanhai Development and Reform Bureau.

However, it is worth noting that the industries introduced by foreign capital are the new development direction of the South China Sea, while the traditional private economy is still mainly active in traditional industries. The introduction of foreign capital does not mean that the most representative private economy in the South China Sea has faded out. "Domestic and foreign capital hardly constitutes a competitive relationship." On the contrary, the mixing of private economy and foreign capital economy makes the economic structure of the South China Sea more comprehensive.

"The South China Sea is the manufacturing center of the Pearl River Delta, which is less affected by the current financial crisis," said Mao Yanhua, an associate professor at the Pearl River Delta Research Center in Hong Kong and Macao of Sun Yat-sen University. "This also provides practical experience for the future development direction of other cities in the Pearl River Delta."

Mao Yanhua said, "The South China Sea, which started as a private economy, is seriously deficient in subsequent development strength due to the lack of technology and funds. The former "professional town" dominated by private enterprises in the South China Sea has also gradually declined. In fact, the South China Sea has not developed as fast as Dongguan in recent years. "

"However, after the South China Sea introduced a number of high-quality, large-scale and long-term high-end manufacturing projects, it enhanced its late-comer strength, especially in this crisis, showing that its ability to resist risks has been greatly improved." Mao Yanhua believes that "in addition, after these large-scale foreign-funded projects are settled, the industrial chain they bring can also drive the development of local private enterprises."

The above information is for reference only!