It is more appropriate to use this sentence to describe "the value discovery of early enterprises".
The biggest feature of early enterprises is greater uncertainty. Mature enterprises have mature and stable business models and financial stability. It is more accurate to evaluate its value with a set of mathematical models. In the early stage, the value judgment of enterprises is more challenging. The blue ocean market is a new industry that needs to be studied. The business model is immature and full of variables, and the financial data depends on the model budget. In terms of gambling, the investment of early enterprises is a riskier gamble, and greater uncertainty means greater risk, which is even more fascinating.
So how do you find beautiful shells buried in the sand on this "gambling table"?
For the early enterprise value evaluation, we give a simple but powerful value evaluation formula-"pyramid model" as follows.
We have read too many investment logics written in dry goods articles, and 10 is still a few. In fact, the investment logic should be a formula or a model, not some criterion or regulation. However, as mentioned above, it is difficult to judge the early enterprise value by quantitative formula, so we express the relationship of various reference factors in the form of graphs instead of adding, subtracting, multiplying and dividing.
The lowest and widest is the industry.
The core parameters of the industry are market size and growth rate, one is static aggregate and the other is dynamic increment. For early-stage enterprises, many enterprises are vertical subdivisions of blue ocean industries or mature industries. At this time, the market size estimation and growth judgment need in-depth investigation and analysis. The reason why it is placed at the bottom of the pyramid is because the market development of the industry is the big environment that determines the value of the enterprise. In the early enterprise's value judgment system, it has a first-class probability decision-making function in investing in the winner of this gamble.
Now many so-called "throwing tracks" are talking about the industry. Those phenomenal investment hotspots in the past two years, such as last year's live broadcast and this year's * * * bicycle enjoyment, are relatively easy to get investment as long as you are in this industry.
Investors may not think that people working in these industries will succeed, but other things being equal, choosing a more promising industry will undoubtedly increase your chances of success.
The present is very different from the past. On the one hand, the industry is becoming more and more detailed. With the upgrading of consumption, vertical accuracy is the general trend. On the other hand, there are many new industries that have never been heard before, which involves the dialectical problem of industry and business model. An industry has no growth point and no big future, but one day there has been a breakthrough in technology or thinking, which has given this industry new vitality through a new business model.
A typical example is the group purchase a few years ago. When the pattern of the e-commerce industry was almost finalized, Groupon, a unicorn, was born less than a year after the group buying model came out, followed by a thousand regiments war. The concept of the word "group buying" has also changed from a business model to an industry.
The most recent example is * * * enjoying a bike. Strictly speaking, * * * cycling was born out of mass cycling, which is an old industry. In the past, cities were piecemeal and patched up. When the mobile Internet did not develop to this day, no one thought it would be an industry with a market value of 100 billion. The innovative business model has changed all this. When this mobile Internet sharing mode is learned by everyone,
So through this transformation relationship, we can also see the importance of business model in an industry. Let's talk about the business model.
The business model is on the second floor.
As an analysis of company dimension, business model is more advanced than industry, but it is also a grand proposition. This basic concept can be regarded as a set of models, or the deconstruction of enterprises by business logic. A complete business model analysis includes five dimensions: enterprise positioning, business system, key resource capacity, profit model and cash flow structure. A good business model should be highly reproducible, with high barriers to key resources, diversified profit sources and reasonable design, and ultimately manifested as abundant cash flow. Business model has a direct impact on the value of early enterprises.
Let's take * * enjoying a bike as an example. Mobike and ofo, the first to enter the market, may not be perfect in the above dimensions such as business system and key resource capacity. If one of them had, it would have dominated the country long ago, and there would not be such an impasse today.
Therefore, in the current entrepreneurial era, if you want to be a unicorn-level enterprise, the focus of the business model is innovation and no obvious shortcomings, rather than perfection.
As mentioned above, every innovative business model will eventually become a new industry, from the "enterprise characteristics" of one company to the "industry characteristics" of each company. Then the competition between enterprises is about time difference. No matter how novel your model is, it's hard to imagine. In this information age, people will learn it in a few days. At the very least, the theoretical basis can be completely copied. Then the significance of innovative business model is to make you a pioneer in this new industry and new track. As the first person to discover the track, you will run a few steps earlier than others and win a lot more.
This is a business model from a macro perspective, and from a micro perspective, even in the same industry, the models of various enterprises are generally similar, but slightly different. Or * * * enjoy a bike. Both mobike and ofo enjoy the mobile Internet. The general logic is the same, but the details such as deposit setting and bicycle cost are almost different. So there are two distinct camps in this industry, equivalent to mobike and ofo. Each side can come up with many arguments to prove that its model is most suitable for China and most in line with the historical development trend.
It is difficult to decide what is right and wrong here, but one thing is certain. No matter what mode, the ultimate executor is a person and a team. There is an old saying in the entrepreneurial circle that the first-class model is for third-rate people, and the third-rate is the last. The third-rate model is for first-rate people, at least it can be made second-rate. When the mode dispute approaches, who wins and loses in the end is more about whose team performs well than whose mode is better. This involves the last thing we want to say, which I think is the most important dimension to judge early enterprises-team.
The team is the top of the pyramid above.
For the early enterprise value judgment, the earlier, the greater the value of the team. The first criterion of a team is team productivity. Never ignore the productivity of outstanding talents, so early enterprises rely more on "productive" teams. The productivity team we put forward means that the team that early enterprises need is a team that can produce benefits, and the most grounded judgment basis is that early enterprises need strong execution. When the market needs to adjust its business model, the role of strategy is less than that of implementation.
In addition, the so-called "catch the thief first", the judgment team judges the CEO first.
What kind of CEO is a reliable CEO? There are different views here. Now there are many articles on the Internet, listing one or two essential qualities of various CEOs. They are all right, but here, I think there are two most important things.
One is the mode of thinking, which will never be satisfied with the achievements made now. An unsatisfied person has a high goal, even if his daily life is dull, but his mental state is full; On the contrary, people who are already complacent have a full daily life, but their mental state is dull.
Such a CEO has a clear goal and knows what to do next; Don't dwell on trivial matters, because you know what is important to you, so you handle irrelevant gains and losses smartly; Don't count the points of your own shares to the end, and don't blindly pursue inflated valuations; Everything is step by step, there is nothing to show off. No matter what the book price of the company is, the survival status has not changed.
The ancients said that "there is thunder in the chest, and the face is like a Pinghu", which can be worshipped as a general. That's what they mean. Those who remain calm in the face of danger and difficulties have bigger hearts, can hold up a bigger situation and endure a bigger hurdle. Accordingly, those who are always in a hurry and in a flurry are a sign of inexperience.
The other is the ability to learn evolution. An entrepreneur may know nothing at first, but he will never be complacent. He has independent thinking, keeps learning new things, and tears off his past self like molting. This spirit of self-abuse is very important. For this kind of CEO, people who can't kill him will eventually make him stronger. On the contrary, those who will never evolve will be the last.
For CEO, the above two items are the concept of "1". With this "1", all other good qualities are followed by "0".
Based on this pyramid model, the lower level needs the ability of analysis and research led by logic and rationality, and the upper level needs the ability of recognizing people and employing people led by emotional intelligence and sensibility. The value discovery of early enterprises is a comprehensive challenge to entrepreneurs and investors. Each of us should also keep learning evolution here in order to meet more and more complex challenges in the future.
Zhou Yang, founder and chairman of Daokoutou, holds an MBA in finance from Wudaokou Finance College of Cornell University in Tsinghua and an MBA from Tsinghua Institute of Economics and Management. An expert in equity investment and strategic design, a visiting professor at China Communication University and a tutor for master students, was in charge of strategic investment management in Beijing Investment Headquarters, and established and managed a number of large domestic and foreign companies.