First, the absolute amount of labor resources in China is still large, and the potential of labor supply needs to be continuously tapped.
Zeng Yuping, chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in 2020, the total size of China's working-age population is still large, with 880 million people, and the labor resources are still rich, which provides important support for the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society.
At present, China is tapping the potential of demographic dividend through reform.
Li Changan, a professor at university of international business and economics National Institute of Opening-up, pointed out that on the one hand, China gradually relaxed its birth policy, and in 20 13, China started the policy of "two children alone" and in 20 15, it started the policy of "two children in an all-round way". According to the census data, due to the adjustment of the birth policy, the number of "two children" born in China has reached 10 million.
On the other hand, steadily promoting delayed retirement has also become an important policy to continue dividends. Li Changan believes that China has nearly 80 million elderly human resources aged 60-64. If we can tap this part of human resources, it will help to alleviate the pressure of social security and increase the supply of labor.
Second, the geographical and industrial transfer of labor force will produce huge dividends.
Lin Yifu, honorary president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and president of Xinjiegou Research Institute, said that the transfer of rural surplus labor to manufacturing will increase labor productivity accordingly, which is also a very important source of demographic dividend.
He pointed out that at present, China's rural labor force accounts for about 30% of the total labor force, but the agricultural labor force in developed countries generally accounts for less than 5%. In other words, there is still huge room for China's labor force to transfer from rural areas to manufacturing industries in the future.
In addition, Lin Yifu pointed out that China's manufacturing industry will change from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and then to technology-intensive, and the added value generated by this process will continue to increase, which will also generate dividends.
Su Jian, director of Peking University National Economic Research Center, also said that in the future, through a series of reforms such as the household registration system, the labor force will flow more freely across regions and departments, the employment structure of the labor force will be improved, the labor force will flow to industries with higher added value, and the population factor will better promote economic growth.
Third, the improvement of population quality will create a second demographic dividend.
Cai Fang believes that the future economic development of China will inevitably be accompanied by an aging population. Although the traditional demographic dividend has declined, it can create a second demographic dividend. The key is to improve the human capital of people of all ages, especially the elderly, through the development of education and training, and rely on this huge human resource to improve the labor participation rate and total factor productivity.
According to the census data released this time, in recent years, the quality of working-age population in China has obviously improved. /kloc-the average educational years of the population aged 0/5 and above is 9.9 1 year, which is 0.83 years higher than that of 20 10/year.
Among the working-age population, the population with high school education or above reached 385 million, accounting for 43.79%, an increase of 65,438+02.8 percentage points over 2065,438+00. The proportion of people with college education or above reached 23.6 1%, which was 1 1.27 percentage points higher than that in 20 10.