I noticed that I asked if I could leave completely one day in the future.
Pay more attention to asking only American technology. American technology includes two forms, namely, American technology that exists alone and American technology contained in products, and products include three forms, namely, American technology produced alone, American technology produced jointly with other countries and American technology produced by other countries themselves.
20 19 the technical bullying of Huawei by the United States has been going on for half a year, and 2020 will be the whole year. It may be upgraded, because everyone has heard that the United States intends to reduce the proportion of American technology in products from 25% to 10%. If it comes true, Huawei's mobile phone chips will lose TSMC's OEM. To what extent will technological bullying escalate and when will it last? Will Huawei lose more than TSMC? Anyway, the United States seems determined to ban Huawei, and it doesn't care about leaving Huawei's technology, such as the world's most advanced 5G technology, which the United States doesn't have. Moreover, it even ignores the fact that it is impossible for American enterprises to completely leave foreign products that only contain 25% or 10% American technology, because the United States can implement long-arm jurisdiction and enterprises in relevant countries have to.
For the banned technologies and products, Huawei has already left and can completely replace them with self-research.
Huawei also has American technology and products that are prohibited from spreading rumors and can be replaced by third parties, but this is the problem. Third-party technology and its products are irreplaceable in level and performance, neither top-notch nor top-notch. So if Huawei replaces them, the products can be available, but the level and performance are much lower. Because the related technology is only lower than American technology, its essence is inseparable from American technology.
Huawei's technology is strong enough in the fields of communication and mobile phones, and it is also subject to American technology? This is completely understandable. Even in the future, it is impossible for Huawei to make too many achievements in all other scientific and technological fields related to communications and mobile phones. And according to common sense and routine, it is impossible to cross too many fields.
It can be seen that Huawei can't leave entirely by itself, and it is also impossible and unreliable to rely on enterprises in other countries that mainly or even secondarily rely on American technology. It must mainly rely on domestic enterprises, including Huawei's upstream and downstream, that is, when these enterprises can completely leave American technology or even surpass it, Huawei will leave completely.
This day will surely come. It is true that most of the upstream and downstream enterprises in China are not high in science and technology, and the so-called low level is mainly relative to American technology. How many years has American science and technology developed? Generally speaking, the technology of the United States is the highest in the world, far ahead of other developed countries, and deeply penetrated into other developed countries.
In fact, China has developed fast enough in recent years, and the distance with American technology has been shortened even faster, which is obvious to all the world. The United States also admitted that otherwise it would be impossible for the United States to ban Huawei, which is a high-tech enterprise with rapid development and high level in China.
Compared with the technology banned by the United States, we feel that the development of domestic technology and high-tech enterprises, including Huawei, is still relatively slow. Yes, the United States is pressing hard step by step, and the intensity and scope of the ban are unprecedented and unscrupulous. Domestic enterprises, including Huawei and its upstream and downstream enterprises, also think that they will speed up and leave American technology as soon as possible, just because the United States is forcing them to leave completely. The United States is banning China enterprises and threatening countries where American technology is located.
It's impossible.
There is a simple reason. The stairs are all made in America, so you have to step on them if you want to go upstairs. At present, it can only replace the United States to build stairs at a higher level, but the bottom floor will always be built in the United States, and it will collapse when it leaves. Let's take the mobile phone as an example. If we expand it a little more, we can clearly see the possibility of leaving the United States:
Basic theory: America
Creativity: America
R&D: America
All hardware: USA
Operating platform: USA
Solution and so on: America.
Completely leaving American technology means completely overthrowing the basic theory, which seems to be a mirage from the technical point of view at present.
We don't deny that there may be a better way than the American scheme, but even if this way works, I'm afraid many elements have to be built on the basis of existing achievements, such as the simplest ones including using electromagnetic wave communication, content display, interaction, storage, phone book function and so on. No matter what kind of upgrades and variants, even if the chip is directly implanted into the brain as a communication method, it is only a manifestation of technological progress, and there is no way to bypass the original functional settings.
Almost all basic science and application levels are occupied by the United States. Even if China wants to build its own building independently, where can it be built when there is almost no place to stand? Don't say that Huawei has no power to build another set independently, even if it is the power of the whole country. Of course, with more favorable support, Huawei may also create technologies that are not available in the United States-but only in the world and environment where American technologies are built, because many basic resources such as computers, networks and chips are also created in the United States. There is no need to dispute this point.
At present, everything about Huawei, whether it is 5G, "HarmonyOS System" or "Huawei Ecology", originates from the basic theory, technology, model, inertia traction and trend guidance of the United States. All the hardware independently developed by Huawei, such as base station equipment, switches, Kirin chips, super Bluetooth, WiFi enhancement technology "Hongyan Super WiFi", mobile phones, etc., are all products of upgrading on the shoulders of beauty. Only then, Huawei will also go down in history and make great contributions to the world. What Huawei can do is to build a new height with its own ability along the route of American technology.
But the significance of this question is to make the audience understand that China cannot live without the United States. Perhaps it also implies the will to make China people submit to the United States and be obedient and good citizens?
If this is what it means, then "Pulse of History" can tell you that if Huawei traces back to American technology, today's American scientific and technological achievements will also be traced back to Britain. Britain's wealth comes from the world including China, and the earliest scientific and technological spark in Britain comes from China's four great inventions. If we ask them to get rid of the four great inventions, their weapons will lie prone (because there is no gunpowder) and warships will get lost (because of compasses, gyroscopes and so on). In essence, it is a technical upgrade of the compass), and the paper media will disappear. Can you imagine what the scene will be like?
Are you satisfied?
Since the industrial revolution developed from the British Isles to the European continent, Americans have surpassed it in all aspects. At present, almost all the best engineering universities in the world are in the United States, and social elites from all over the world are also flocking to the United States. The United States has harvested talents from all over the world. This trend has not changed at present.
Under such circumstances, the technological innovation of that country cannot be separated from the United States, which is the reality of the world at present.
If Huawei wants to leave American technology completely, it must break through two major problems. One is mask aligner technology and chip manufacturing technology. The second problem is the operating system.
It is precisely because these two problems have not been solved that Huawei's global sales fell out of the top five as soon as the United States sanctioned Huawei. Let me briefly talk about these two issues.
First of all, the question about mask aligner. At present, the most advanced mask aligner in the world is Asmel in the Netherlands. Developed by America, Japan, Germany and other countries. Among them, the United States provides light source and drawing design.
Asmel represents the world's top lithography technology, which is more difficult than building an atomic bomb. Among Asmel mask aligner, EUV mask aligner is the best. Asmer is also the only player in the world who can cultivate EUV. It can be said that without this mask aligner, TSMC and Intel would be paralyzed and completely unable to operate. The saddest thing is that the most advanced Asmel mask aligner cannot be sold to China because of US sanctions. It's too difficult to break through!
This is what I call mask alignment technology.
In addition to mask aligner technology, of course, there is chip technology. Huawei does have the ability to design chips. On the surface, if Huawei has mask aligner, the United States can't sanction Huawei in terms of chips, but don't forget that Huawei's chip software is also used in the United States, which is another bottleneck. Companies that produce chips, such as TSMC and ZTE, can't sell chips, or they will be kicked out of the framework.
The second point concerns Google's Android system.
Although news about HarmonyOS system has been overwhelming on the Internet since last year, patriotic netizens have been boiling again and again. But very helpless, HarmonyOS system dystocia. It is said that it is currently in the internal testing stage and is suspected to be based on Android. Of course, this is not the focus of today's discussion. The point is still Android.
I wonder if you still remember a series of sanctions imposed by Google on Huawei last year? Although domestic users have not been affected at all, foreign users have suffered greatly. Because of Google's sanctions, Huawei phones can't enter Google's app store, resulting in a large number of applications that can't be downloaded. Huawei's sales also suffered a cliff-like decline. This is also an important reason why Huawei dropped from the first three to five.
Therefore, Huawei now wants to completely leave American technology, which is completely unworkable and the consequences can be imagined. Of course, we can't decouple from the world, because everyone should understand. Of course, Huawei still has a way out. Huawei joined the smart pig industry and the automobile industry because of US sanctions, and strived for a share. Unfortunately, smart pig raising has been ridiculed by many people in China, and entering the electric bicycle circle has also been pushed to the forefront because of Tesla's rights protection incident.
First of all, Huawei didn't invent radio communication, chips, mobile phones, other radio internet technologies, driverless, intelligent systems and systems, so Huawei's technology is not the research and development technology of independent intellectual property rights, but the development technology of imitating the cottage. So far, Huawei has not monopolized the world by itself. It can manufacture other countries and companies and master the core technologies with completely independent intellectual property rights.
If Huawei wants to continue to play in the communications industry, it is actually impossible to completely go to American technology. Unless Huawei does not use the electromagnetic technology of the current radio and plays with new technologies that are not available in the world, it can develop another non-electromagnetic communication system, such as superluminal technology, communication technology that can penetrate the earth, biological communication technology that can communicate with animals, communication technology that can cross the border of death, perpetual motion machine and other new technologies, and it can completely abandon American technology and sanction the United States.
Can Huawei completely break away from American technology? Note that it is "American technology"?
But the good news is that if we don't consider the supply of these chips, Huawei can basically be self-sufficient now. Recently, there was such a news that the British financial media dismantled Huawei P40 series to see if Huawei could leave the United States for supply. In the end, it really hit itself in the face because Huawei only used one American component, that is, the RF front end. Many people say what is this? In fact, it is the signal needed by the position where the mobile phone is connected to the antenna, which is used for anti-interference and signal filtering. This still needs to be provided by Qualcomm, Qorvo and Skyworks. Indeed, there is no mature solution for this technology in China at present.
From this good news, in fact, we can know that at least now Huawei is slowly getting rid of the clutches of the United States, but as we just said, Huawei does have strong technology, but there is more than one mobile phone component. Although the flash memory, screen and lens can actually be provided by China, South Korea and Japan, the core components really need to be provided by other manufacturers, and many of their technologies come from the United States. Or other countries, so the result is that although Huawei is very strong, it has not achieved all the industrial chains, so it has been affected, which is why the directors of Huawei Theory said that they believe that the country will not let Huawei go because it really has a great impact on Huawei.
To sum up, what we know is that in order to develop the early domestic science and technology more quickly, and the import and export trade was really hot at that time, all enterprises chose to import, so that they could survive temporarily and get more profits. Isn't that what Lenovo does? Typical representatives, but in recent years, when they want to engage in R&D, in fact, many of them have begun to fall behind, and with the changes in the international situation, they can only say that they are tying people up. Now we can only say that Huawei is still inseparable from American technology, because Huawei has not completed all the industrial chains, and a large number of components still need to be purchased, and manufacturers use a lot of foreign technology.
Answer over
This question depends on whether you are asking "in the near future", such as 10, or "in the future", such as 50 years. In the near future, this is not possible at all. In the long run, there may still be opportunities.
Although now is the era of technology explosion, technology iteration is very fast. To an epoch-making technology, from the beginning of research and development to the final commercialization, it is basically 10 years. Therefore, it can be considered that the life cycle of any technology is calculated in decades.
Secondly, modern technology is unlikely to appear out of thin air, all based on the technology of the previous generation. Therefore, in practice, the patent of the previous generation technology can play a role in the next generation technology. In other words, it is difficult for backward companies to avoid the first-Mover advantage of other companies. This is the term "patent barrier".
At present, the research of basic science is basically at a standstill. In other words, when we delve into the basic science, we find that the roots of these seemingly magical modern applied technologies can be traced back to almost 100 years ago. In other words, basic science has made little progress since 100. Therefore, it is more and more difficult to form a breakthrough in the technological innovation of the application layer, and it is more and more easy to hit the "patent barrier" in the application innovation.
Confirm the above three realities, and then see if Huawei can get rid of the problem of "American technology".
In a short time, such as 10, it is impossible for Huawei to get rid of American technology. As long as Huawei continues to make money in these "electronics and information" fields, it will never be able to get rid of the influence of the United States, and even it will be difficult to move without American technology. Because, at present, the technology patents in the United States are all over the relevant modern technology fields. If we don't carry out research and development from the foundation, we can't avoid the existence of American technology as long as we want to stand on the shoulders of giants for higher research.
In the long run, for example, in the past 50 years, China has made a breakthrough in basic science, or Huawei has devoted itself to research. Maybe it will probably come up with an epoch-making new technology, which has nothing to do with the United States, but this possibility is similar to my chances of winning the lottery. From the most basic research to the final commercial application, the previous generation of American technology is not involved, so Huawei may not only get rid of American technology, but also become the standard setter of new technologies and make money all over the world.
The modern science and technology system is the product of cooperation all over the world. You have me and I have you, and you and I are inseparable. No matter from which angle, as long as it is not based on the most basic scientific theory, it will inadvertently encounter American technology. Now all the people who want to go it alone are idiots who can fit the West Lake in their heads. Thank you for your question. It is difficult for Huawei to completely break away from American technology in the short term.
It is hard to avoid at present. The United States has always been a leader in the global semiconductor industry, accounting for about 45%~50% of the market share. Its related technologies are not only embodied in specific products, but also in various authorizations and agreements. So many products don't seem to be produced in the United States, but the source may have elements of American technology companies. According to the disassembly analysis of XYZone, the RF front-end module of P40 is produced by three chip companies in the United States, namely Qualcomm, Skyworks and Qorvo.
Huawei P40' s efforts. Huawei has replaced many parts without American technology companies in the design of mobile phones, which reflects Huawei's indomitable attitude. However, the RF front-end module of Huawei's latest model P40 is still produced by American chip companies Qualcomm, Skyworks and Qorvo, which shows that American technology companies still dominate the RF front-end module, and Huawei cannot do without it in the short term.
I have read many answers, and they are all wrong, so I will tell you the correct answer. Huawei can't completely leave American technology, but it can avoid some American products. Because many "American technologies" have become "world" technologies, and some American technologies are actually difficult to be replaced, Huawei needs to try its best to find alternatives.
First of all, many people below don't understand the difference between American technology and American products. What are American products? In a narrow sense, the products produced by American companies are all called American products, such as Broadcom, Qualcomm or Micron chips, Microsoft operating system, GMS of Android, etc. Huawei either does not use these products or looks for substitutes around the world.
However, in a broad sense, only products with a high technological content in the United States can be called American products. For example, the United States now stipulates that products with American technology content higher than 25% are not allowed to be sold to Huawei.
If the United States threatens that products with American technology higher than 10% cannot be sold to Huawei, then Huawei will be more painful, but it is not insoluble. Because it is not that the more American technology is used, the better the product will be. However, if we want to completely reject American technology, then it is absolutely difficult for Huawei to survive.
American products may be replaceable, but American technology is hard to be replaced. After all, the United States has been ahead of the world in science and technology for 100 years, and China has only been reforming and opening up for 30 years. How does China really surpass the United States in so many technologies? For an easy-to-understand example, at present, our Internet, including 5G, uses the IPv4 protocol. Basically, most of them are formulated by the United States. Can Huawei go? No, TCP/IP is the foundation of the whole Internet world at present.
Huawei recently proposed a new IP to replace the traditional IP network. I think it's just an attitude. It is quite difficult to get the support of global communication companies and operators for real business. The United States will definitely not agree to change the IP protocol family. The foundation of the entire Internet mobile Internet is contributed by the United States, and Huawei cannot do without it.
For another example, the main supplier of EDA software for chip design is the United States. Although the United States cut off the supply to Huawei, Huawei's chip design still needs American EDA software, and the domestic EDA software can't top it at present. Perhaps in the future, Huawei may support domestic EDA software companies to upgrade their technology together, but in the short term, Huawei cannot do without American EDA software.
However, in terms of communication networks, even American technologies have been standardized and prototyped, thanks to the fact that IETF and ITUT are international organizations and their technologies are open and accessible, so Huawei can boldly use them. The technology in the world is still enjoyed.
Huawei can use American technology to replace American products, and American operators can also use Huawei technology to replace Huawei products. In addition to mask aligner, EDA and other hardware-based technologies, communication technology can basically be enjoyed.
So Huawei can't completely use American technology. The communication technology in the world is originally the result of multinational cooperation, but Huawei can replace American products with independent research and development or products from Europe, Japan and South Korea.