Daniel burroughs is a futurist and a consultant in the field of science and technology development. He focuses on the long-term development trend of science and innovation, and provides advice to CEOs of Fortune 500 companies to help them find innovation opportunities and solve business problems. Microsoft, Google, IBM, Kaiser Medical, Toshiba, General Motors, Procter & Gamble, American Express, Kellogg Business School of Northwestern University, Ernst & Young and Disney are all his loyal customers. Burroughs also successfully started a business and managed six enterprises properly. His speeches are all over the world, and he has written many books about innovation.
John David Mann has written many books about business, leadership and the law of success for 25 years. He is a best-selling author, and his book Let Go is one of the best-selling books in The Wall Street Journal.
Jin Lixin, MBA from Purdue University, BA from English Department of Peking University Foreign Studies University, and MA from Peking University Institute of Software and Microelectronics. Engaged in foreign affairs interpretation and translation in the Department of International Cooperation of the Ministry of Agriculture of China, and engaged in Sino-American scientific translation and interpretation in Purdue University.
Core content
What will happen if the future is visible? Investors will sow the seeds of wealth and wait for a certain profit; Entrepreneurs will adjust their business direction, and the next typhoon will arrive on time like a flight; Understanding the future is understanding the trend. It should be noted that trends can be divided into hard trends and soft trends. Hard trend is the fate of the future, and soft trend is the variable of the future.
The main idea of this book is to distinguish the two. The organization led by the author is a world-famous forecaster. He has accurately predicted hundreds of great changes and never failed. For the first time, this book reveals the logic of the author's accurate prediction, in order to understand the seven principles of the future and establish "foresight". As soon as it was published, the book topped the Amazon bestseller list and was enthusiastically sought after by American business elites. Nowadays, only a few people have the foresight. Foresight is a skill that can be developed, refined and strengthened. Follow this book to form correct habits, and you can also see hard trends.
First, hard trends and soft trends.
Time has been moving forward, which is a hard trend. And what will your future be like? None of us can be 100% sure, this is a soft trend-because only you can decide its change. Hard trend will be realized, and it is the fate of the future, such as the change of seasons, the ebb and flow of tides and other periodic laws, or the laws of human aging and scientific and technological progress, from which we can find out the obvious certainty of the future; Soft trend is a possible and future variable, which is influenced by our manpower.
Second, the method of finding hard trends.
Eight laws of scientific and technological development: dematerialization, virtualization, mobility, product intelligence, networking, interaction, globalization and integration.
1. dematerialization: the carrier of words has developed from bamboo slips and paper to electronic documents;
2. Virtualization: use software to simulate reality, such as various system software, such as Taobao Amazon.
3. Mobility: We use mobile phones more and more to get information and interact anytime and anywhere;
4. Product intelligence: the combination of artificial intelligence and big data makes the future at your fingertips;
5. Networking: people, people and things, things and things can realize real-time connection, communication and information transmission through the network;
6. Interactivity: From watching news in one direction on the Internet to interacting with social media platforms such as Weibo and WeChat, we are increasingly capable of interacting with various things;
7. Globalization: you can know everything at home and abroad in real time and search for first-hand knowledge;
8. Integration: A smart phone integrates functions such as telephone, camera, music and map, and is dubbed as an organ that can be taken away.
Third, three principles of action to enhance predictability.
The world is undergoing revolutionary changes due to the big explosion of science and technology. Foresight is to skip the immediate problems, find the real problems and solutions with subversive common sense and reverse thinking, find your core strengths, and redefine your value or products.
1. change. When the technological revolution pushes forward a new era, those once successful companies or traditional success rules will be fundamentally shaken. There is a saying in management science that the only constant of an organization is change.
2. jump out of the problem you are facing and do the opposite. Many times, when you encounter problems in your life and work, the first problem that catches your eye is probably not the real problem. Try to jump out of the old inertia thinking, dig the problems behind the problems and find the "real problems". If you can change your thinking mode. This will bring you new solutions and creativity.
3. Redefine and create. If you want to grasp the future and make the impossible possible, you need to look at things with a new eye, redefine things innovatively and create revolutionary things, so as to realize what others think is impossible.
Fourth, the future vision.
When you are completely lost in aimless busyness, try to stop and ask yourself, "What is my immediate problem? What do I want in the future? " Projecting yourself into the future and looking back at your present position is the key to forward-looking skills. Everyone has a clear or vague vision of the future in his mind, but you may never try to sort out its picture and details. Your vision for the future determines all your thoughts and actions. Go wherever you look.
Golden sentence:
1. Find out the hard trend and you can see the future; Find soft trends and you can build the future.
2. Only by actively solving today's problems can we avoid the problem from getting worse. But even this would not be enough We should predict what will happen tomorrow and then take action to solve it first.
3. In this new era, there are two important truths that enterprises can't ignore, which we can call the inference of the golden rule: 1) As long as it is possible, it will be realized. 2) If you don't do it, someone else will.