Wang: The positioning of candidates is very important. We should pay attention to three principles.
First, the estimate is biased and the plan needs to be considered.
According to the situation in these years, whether before or after the exam, there is a great deviation in the evaluation of the scores of the candidates we have mastered and the candidates we have coached. If the evaluation score can be controlled within five points, that is, the deviation can be reduced by five points, the accuracy rate is already very high, and in most cases, the deviation is very large, even twenty points or even higher.
It means that whether you volunteer before or after the exam, you are faced with the problem of candidate positioning.
So even if the provinces know how to volunteer after the exam, it's not that easy, because the time is tight after the exam. First, the candidate must design the plan within three to five days. It's too late to react, and it's easy for volunteers to be eaten alive and even make major mistakes. The second is to know how to fill in volunteers, which is easy to cause volunteers to get together, especially high-scoring candidates. Therefore, even if you volunteer, you should be prepared in advance. Volunteer design in advance, so in this sense, whether it is evaluation or reporting, we must make a basic positioning for candidates in advance. According to this positioning, the preliminary design and preliminary preparation of the scheme are carried out. So how do candidates make scientific positioning? One is to master an interval, that is, the candidate's score is plus or minus 20 points, which is within the score interval of 40 points.
For example, if a candidate's normal score is 580 points, then you fluctuate upwards, you can get 600 points by adding two paragraphs, fluctuate downwards, and then drop two paragraphs, which can be 560 points, that is, from the lowest score to 40 points. According to this score range, candidates' wishes are combined with institutions.
Generally speaking, the ability to eliminate the bias caused by evaluation is to digest this risk in the program itself. This is a principle that needs to be mastered.
Second, distinguish the types of candidates.
Candidates with relatively stable grades and good psychological quality. You can design the basic combination of the previous programs according to the results of a model. It can be said that candidates like this, generally speaking, can perform normally in the college entrance examination. The same model is often a well-organized and highly valued exam in various places. So to a certain extent, he can test the true level of candidates. If one-size-fits-all grades are used as the basic reference for filling in volunteers, candidates with relatively stable grades and good psychological state can basically maintain the same grades in the future college entrance examination if they play normally.
Candidates with unstable grades and poor psychological quality can be converted according to the first mode, the second mode and their final three grades. Then this principle applies to these provinces and cities that scored before the exam. Well, I have been teaching candidates in Beijing for many years, and ordinary parents who have the conditions require to see the candidates at least once. It is mainly through meeting the candidates and chatting face to face to master the basic situation and status of the candidates. Then this basic understanding of the candidate is not only an adjustment of the state before the exam, but more importantly, a basic judgment of the candidate, that is, to see his current situation, to what extent the future college entrance examination can be played, whether it is rising or falling. Then when we locate this candidate, we can roughly know what he is doing, and his basic starting point is here.
Therefore, it is very important to distinguish the types of candidates. This is the second principle.
Three, after the exam, know how to fill in the province can take the following two methods to prepare for the volunteer:
First of all, make a preliminary voluntary design according to the results of several exams before the exam.
Second, after the college entrance examination, we should evaluate the score in time, make a voluntary close-range adjustment, and then make a formal revision after getting the score.
Wang: How to judge that the target organization should be targeted?
At present, there are about four or five methods to judge the target institutions nationwide, with different methods. They are suitable for different provinces and cities, different regions or different people, so these methods also have their own advantages. The key is to look at the information we have and the level you usually master.
First, analogy.
For example, this method is suitable for all candidates. The so-called analogy is to determine the high school where the candidates are currently, what kind of school, such as a provincial model school or a municipal model school, a provincial key high school or an ordinary high school, then what level your area is in this city, in the whole province, in other parts of this city, and what level this high school is, as far as its province is concerned.
Mainly reflected in:
1. In recent years, what is the admission rate and online rate of fresh graduates in your school? When students entered the school three years ago, that is, when they went to study in this high school, was there any big change in the local enrollment of your high school compared with previous years, such as the scope of students?
Secondly, in the recent big exam, you can get into the top 72%. Generally speaking, it is promising for you to take one. In the same way, if you have a good grasp of these data and information of your alma mater, it is easy to infer the school you may apply for from the admission of the students at the next higher level.
Second, the ranking method.
The ranking method is applicable to the provinces that evaluate their scores before or after the exam and fill in their volunteers. Ranking method, especially in Beijing, Tianjin and other cities, is a popular method. But in most provinces and cities in China, it is not used much. Even in the provinces where the number of people is announced by the Provincial Examinations Institute, people are often not used to reporting their volunteers in this way. There is a simple reason. In the case that the number of candidates is small, there are many local enrollment institutions, and most candidates are unwilling to go to school in other places, the traditional ranking method is the simplest and most feasible. However, in provinces and cities with a large number of candidates and relatively scattered colleges and universities, the ranking rules become difficult to operate or vague.
And this method, the key is what level of people, what kind of basic population, to use and operate. So my advice to you is that the top 1000 candidates in the city should try their best to use rankings. I advocate 500-800 on my blog. Here, I'll zoom in for you. You can use the top 1000 candidates.
First, 1000 candidates in a lower position should use it with caution. I mean cautious.
Second, the use of rankings should be combined with the number of candidates and enrollment plans. It is more scientific and desirable to use sequencing and prediction to control traps step by step. It is necessary to combine the number of candidates with the enrollment plan and use the ranking to estimate the batch control line. Generally speaking, comparative science is also a desirable practice. For example, in a district of Beijing, the score of a line is 480. Usually, the ranking corresponding to science is about 1.9 million.
Third, the use of the leaderboard should be combined with this year's enrollment plan. As far as possible, according to the order from high to low, accumulate the enrollment of each enrollment institution, and compare the cumulative number with the ranking.
Wang: A good way to calculate the ranking and selection of candidates.
Calculating the ranking of candidates involves two steps. In addition to several methods that are currently hotly discussed on the Internet, here I recommend several other methods for parents' reference.
The first method: average push algorithm.
The first step is to measure the candidates' college entrance examination results. The average push algorithm is to use the average push algorithm to measure the candidates' college entrance examination results, which is what we just said at the beginning. No matter what method you use, you must first locate the candidate. Then evaluate Beijing before the exam. It is suggested that you refer to the push algorithm of average score to measure the candidates' own scores.
The second step is to calculate the ranking of candidates in the city. Constant ranking inference method is to calculate the ranking of candidates in cities by using constant ranking inference method. Then this method is to analyze the relationship between the school ranking of candidates in our school in the past three years and the ranking of this school in the whole city, and get a school ranking. It is also the name of the school and the examination area. The test area we are talking about is an approximate constant of Beijing's ranking in the whole test area. Assuming that this constant can be expressed by C, when it is expressed by a mathematical formula, it is C=M/N, where M is the ranking of the examination area and N is the school noun, then the constant C can be obtained by dividing the examination area noun by the school ranking, and then the examinee's own ranking in the school can be grasped. This ranking is multiplied by this constant c, which is an approximate ranking of yourself in the examination area. For example, a key middle school in Beijing, after years of experience, the approximate constant is C=4. If a candidate in this school is confirmed to be ranked 23rd in this school after many examinations, and then his ranking is multiplied by 4, then the candidate's approximate ranking in the examination area, that is, the whole Beijing, is 92. This method is also relatively simple.
The second method: cumulative ranking method.
This method is to add up the number of college admissions in previous years according to the distribution of segments. This data is relatively easy to obtain. After you send it down, it is the release of a released original data. Then you take colleges and universities as a unit, according to their original distribution, add up and compare your scores, and you will get your ranking in the city. Predict your general ranking in the city through candidates' own positioning. After getting these results, the ultimate goal in the future is how to find the school you applied for. There must be a third step. Then the third step is to use the rankings to find suitable institutions. Then let's talk about another method, that is, the ranking table method of school scores in previous years.
The basic method is to re-average the average score of a college entrance examination in the past three years. Then according to each school, from high to low, it is assumed that Peking University is the first, Tsinghua is the second, Beijing Institute of Technology is the third, and Beihang University is the fourth. Suppose you follow such an order, and I'll give you an example of this order casually, so how to set this up specifically? It must be based on the average score of candidates admitted to the school in the past three years.
The third method: line difference method
The line difference method is applicable to all provinces that fill in their volunteers, that is to say, whether you are evaluating before or filling in after the exam, all provinces, as long as you thoroughly understand the true connotation of this method and filter out some other related factors, then this method is universal.
Based on the analysis of the control line, the line difference method is used to calculate the score difference between candidates' application and college admission respectively. We compare the score difference of candidates to the length of legs, and the score difference of colleges and universities is the threshold. As long as candidates' legs are longer than the threshold of colleges and universities, they can be listed as optional colleges and universities. For example, to climb a peak, you must know the altitude, which is the absolute height of the mountain. The efficiency of newspaper selection is high, and it is necessary to know the height of approval, which is the real threshold for colleges and universities. Efficient approval height constitutes the admission threshold of colleges and universities, and the approval height of candidates PK The approval height of colleges and universities can be easily admitted.
Therefore, the tedious selection of candidates for the target university can be simplified as a simple application of the basic formula that the candidate's identity is higher than that of the university. The so-called approval height of colleges and universities means that the admission score of a college is higher than the lowest admission control line of the same batch in the province in that year, which means that the admission of colleges and universities is divided into batches, which is equal to the efficient approval height.
Therefore, in the process of choosing an institution, the most important thing is to know the threshold of the institution, and whether the leg length of your college entrance examination score can reach the threshold of the target institution, that is, the approval level is higher than that of the institution.
So here we use the control score line, that is, the minimum admission control score line, that is, the key line, or two lines and so on. , are all provincial education enrollment departments. In order to ensure the completion of the enrollment plan and the admission quality of each batch, a minimum college entrance examination score line is determined for each batch according to a certain proportion greater than the enrollment plan, which is generally 1.20%. He is the basic criterion to measure whether candidates are qualified to participate in the admission of various batches, and it is the life and death line of the college entrance examination. Only the college entrance examination scores are the same, that is to say, the actual score of the college entrance examination, plus your policy care score, his sum is the college entrance examination characteristic score and the college entrance examination characteristic score. Candidates who meet or exceed the corresponding score line for filing control are likely to be filed, screened and selected by this batch of institutions, otherwise you will miss out on the institutions admitted to this batch.
Then this fractional line has the following important characteristics:
First, it is the starting line for the unified competition of all online candidates in the same batch, subject and category in the province. It is also a measure to compare the quality of students and admission scores between different universities.
Second, it is a symbol of the overall examination level of liberal arts candidates in the province. Modeling with this wide range of college entrance examination scores has certain representativeness, generality and relative stability, and can effectively filter out particularity and contingency.
Third, although this score line changes every year due to the difficulty of the test questions, the number of candidates, the enrollment plan and other factors, in most years of most provinces, the control line of a province and city is basically stable in most years, and there is generally no big difference.
When using this difference, there are several special situations to pay attention to.
The first one is about the interception year of the data. Considering the factors and influence of enrollment years, the average value of at least three years should be adopted when calculating the enrollment height of colleges and universities.
Secondly, regarding the minimum score and average score, it should be noted that the scores published by different provinces are different. For example, the lowest score of filing, the lowest score of admission, the average score of admission and so on.
Third, about the year of university enrollment. The size of enrollment is caused by the number of applicants, and the number of applicants is attracted by the level of admission scores in the previous year. This phenomenon of fluctuating scores of enrollment institutions is almost universal.
The fourth method: the theory of "five-three golden line difference"
The "five-three golden line difference" theory supported by the unique examination method system reveals the special law of college admission scores.
As mentioned above, the line difference method, how to use the data related to different years, how to avoid the enrollment year, and use the lowest score or the average score. In order to overcome these problems effectively, it has brought confusion to candidates and parents. After years of painstaking research, we have successfully established the "golden line difference", referred to as "golden line difference". Based on the enrollment data of a province over the years, according to the relevant principles of statistics and probability theory, through comprehensive and detailed analysis, a brand-new scientific and practical quantitative analysis method is summarized, that is, the index system with the golden line difference as the core, and the admission scores of enrollment institutions are estimated by this method. The predicted success rate can reach over 99%. It is not only a necessary supplement to the college entrance examination counseling book compiled by the admissions office of this province, but also an essential tool for the majority of candidates to quickly screen the target institutions.
Using this tool to fill in the college entrance examination volunteers can achieve such an effect, which is convenient and quick, and get twice the result with half the effort. Simply put, the "five-three golden line difference" is the golden section of the score interval between the lowest score and the score. The score difference is calculated by the score of the golden section point, that is, neither the lowest score nor the average score is applicable, but this score interval is the golden section. Calculate the difference by the score of the split point. This is a basic principle of its production.
Then extrapolate the calculated golden line difference to the last three years, or more, to test the validity of the data. Then, the calculation formula is the reference line difference of the current year, plus the minimum admission control line of the previous year, MINUS the minimum admission score of the current year. Then you get an error value every year. According to this error value, whether there is a phenomenon of enrollment in different years is judged, and the "golden line difference" is corrected according to this error value.
Then, as a theoretical achievement, it has been popularized and used in different cities for several years and achieved good results. According to this theoretical system, the college entrance examination scores compiled by provincial and local editions are also generally welcomed by the parents of the majority of candidates. At present, this book doesn't need any publicity, relying on word of mouth from parents, and its audience has been considerable. Then a parent in Weifang City, Shandong Province called our department a while ago and said that according to the score difference you calculated, there is still a certain score margin, which is very convenient and useful. It's just too arrogant.
In fact, there are still many such sighs from this parent, so we say that the superiority of the golden score calculated according to the golden integral score is beyond doubt.
The universal significance of "golden line difference" in practical application can be summarized as follows:
First, the "golden line difference" scientifically solves the problem of mutual comparison of enrollment in different universities. No matter which college, no matter what the minimum admission score is, no matter how big the admission score interval is, we take five or three points of the admission score interval of our school as the basic point of analysis and comparison, and use the difference between the golden score line and the relevant batch control line to successfully solve the problem that the admission data of all colleges in that year are incomparable.
Second, the "golden line difference" effectively solves the problem that the admission scores are not comparable between different years, although the control scores of unified batches in different provinces and cities are different every year. However, as long as it is calculated, the difference between the May 3rd Golden Score and the control line of the corresponding batch in that year, no matter which year, no matter which college, no matter whether the control line is high or low, no matter how big the admission interval is, can be measured, compared and analyzed by the index of "Golden Score Difference".
Thirdly, the "golden line difference" solves the problem that the scores of candidates are not comparable to those of enrollment institutions, and finds the key point to solve this contradiction in a predictable way. We can understand intuitively. You have to be admitted to a university, but there is a lot of room for manoeuvre in the choice of majors. Candidates should score in the school's admission score range, which is three fifths from bottom to top, that is to say, the score difference of the application is slightly greater than or equal to the "golden score difference".
Fourthly, the "golden spread" is optimized in the input-output ratio of candidates. First of all, according to the golden score, you can effectively avoid risks and master a higher probability of winning, because in the process of applying, candidates are most concerned about whether they can be admitted. Don't be squeezed by others. In fact, according to the general situation, the input-output ratio at this point is there. He found a golden point through a lot of statistical analysis. Then below this point, the probability of admission will be greatly reduced and the degree of risk will increase. Then on this point, some points may be wasted. It is better to choose a better school.
I need to further explain that this "golden line difference" is not an isolated figure, but an index system. This index system includes the average filing rate of the first choice over the years, the change rate of the average advantage over the years, the admission error over the years, the first choice filing line and so on.
Among them, the average first-choice filing rate over the years is the weighted average of the first-choice filing rate over the years, and the first-choice filing rate is the ratio of the number of first-choice applicants in colleges and universities to the actual enrollment number or enrollment plan, which is mainly used to judge whether colleges and universities can complete the enrollment plan at the first choice. This is an important basis for us to observe the popularity of colleges and universities, or the popularity index.
Through such an indicator, we divided all the enrollment institutions in each batch into two camps.
First, in most years in the past, the number of students recommended for admission was sufficient, and the enrollment plan could be completed at one time.
Second, the number of first-choice students in most years of previous years is insufficient, and it is necessary to collect volunteers or make up records to complete the enrollment task.
Another scoring indicator is the average score and the rate of change of advantages in previous years, so this indicator is a measure and evaluation. It is an indicator of the advantage of candidates' scores, and the density of candidates' scores not only affects the size of the score interval, but also directly affects the difficulty of applying for the exam. Generally speaking, colleges with small score range, large number of candidates and high density of candidates are relatively easier than those with large score range, small number of candidates and low density of candidates, and the risk coefficient of applying for the exam is much smaller.
The third indicator is the admission error over the years. Just now, it is simply said that through this year's application line difference, it can be extrapolated for three or five years, plus this year's batch control line MINUS the lowest score, and a difference is obtained, which is to verify this year's reference line difference. How big is the deviation in recent years? Adjust the line difference through this index.
The fifth method: difficulty coefficient method.
This method is very simple. Generally used to solve the problem of major choice, there have always been two major problems in the choice of volunteers, both candidates and parents. One is which university to choose according to your scores, and the other is what kind of major to apply for to ensure admission. Is not only to walk well, but also to walk well.
Based on the above analysis and introduction, we can say that line difference and difficulty coefficient, regarded as a bunch of oviparous sisters, are two golden keys to scientifically solve the problem of volunteering. Finally, it should be emphasized that volunteering for the college entrance examination is a three-way game process, which determines not only the candidates themselves, but also how candidates of the same level apply for the exam, which is calculated according to any method. The matching score or difference between candidates and institutions is static, regardless of the factors of the third party, but the filling of the test questions above the candidates is a dynamic process. Everything changes because of the candidates' different ways of reporting. Therefore, when using any method to calculate the target institution, we should make an in-depth analysis according to the specific conditions of different institutions, such as the geographical location of your institution, the type of application here, the popularity in the country, and the choice psychology of candidates in that year, and make a comprehensive judgment and analysis.
The following is a summary of the questions raised by experts in the lecture, and more questions and answers will focus on the parents' meeting of senior three.
Parents of senior three parents asked: I listened to your lecture a few days ago, and Shandong is also a small parallel volunteer. Children study liberal arts and want to study journalism and our major. What schools can I apply for according to this score? Can you recommend some good schools for journalism?
Wang: Journalism is also a big category, including many majors, such as journalism, radio and television journalism, advertising, my publishing, communication, media creativity, new media and information network, four road networks, including the broadcasting and hosting direction of journalism, as well as the military direction of journalism and so on.
Then it is subdivided into each major, and the situation in each school is too different. Here, I just, because of time, take journalism as the representative and give you an analysis. China Renmin University is the best, followed by China Communication University (Weibo). At present, these two schools rank first and second respectively in journalism and China. Then Fudan University, he is also partial.
Including Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Weibo), Sichuan University, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing University, Tsinghua University, etc. The majors in these schools are quite good, as well as Zhejiang University, including Peking University. Of course, as I said just now, this major comes from China People's Congress and China Media. Of course, these schools, as for our children, can get a cup, the key is to see the difference of children after a period of time.
Parents of senior three parents asked: Beijing Xiaoping's second choice is to ask school A or school B to adjust their uniforms, otherwise the next school has no right to choose files. How to understand that when you fill in the second choice, you should look at the point of failure of your choice. When you look at the second choice colleges, you should not only look at the average score of undergraduate students over the years. I don't know how to rank the second choice.
Wang: As long as it's parallel volunteer, I suggest that every school should fill in the obedience adjustment. Because it's small parallel, it's in the second school. That is to say, your first choice has been eliminated, so you can't help it. Otherwise, you will be in the next batch. So in the third school with two parallel schools, you must make sure that every school should fill in the obedience adjustment. Otherwise, after you enter the file, if you arrange this special section incorrectly, or the candidates can't reach it, then you have no choice but to enroll. In fact, there are very few collections in Beijing, and both majors and colleges are neglected by everyone.
Parents of senior three parents asked: If you have already got extra points for self-enrollment in a school and applied to the school in the first batch, can you apply for other volunteers in advance?
Wang: This question is not contradictory. He was admitted in advance before the first batch of admission. Even if the first batch of advance batches is not accepted, it will not affect the admission of later batches. If the candidates' scores focus on a number of key undergraduate courses, you were admitted to a number of undergraduate institutions, and both the choice and the scope of choice are very large. Good schools abound, and the focus is on a number of undergraduate volunteers. If you feel good in advance, take a batch of undergraduate courses as a reference point.
Parents of senior three parents asked: The child has already enrolled students independently through Dalian University of Technology. I wonder which is better, Dalian Institute of Technology or Beijing Institute of Technology? In addition, the child is a student in Liaoning. If parallel volunteer A can't do it, can B volunteer? For example, A Beili, B Dalian Institute of Technology and C Beiyou, is that ok?
Wang: Both Dalian Institute of Technology and Beijing Institute of Technology are 985, but their school-running characteristics and traditions are different. As for which is better, I think both schools are good. When you want to distinguish between high and low, you must first determine your professional direction. After the specific major, go and see these two schools. Which is better and more scientific?
As for your next question, the average volunteer is a. If not, can B volunteer? He has a batch of undergraduate courses in Liaoning, which are divided into AB and AB, and he is sure to get in. He does not contradict each other.
The third question, you ask three schools: Beili, Dali and Beiyou. Because parallel volunteer is set up like this, I can't give you a definite opinion here, because I don't know how your children are and what your score is. Judging from the three schools you are currently running, they are all popular schools in popular areas.
Parents of senior three parents asked: It is said that Tianjin has been in parallel volunteer since 20 10. Did parallel volunteer have any reference value in the past three years?
Wang: First of all, I want to correct it. Parallel volunteer didn't start in Tianjin this year, but started last year. It is in the A section of the first batch of undergraduate courses, completely parallel, starting from the B section, and it is small parallel. The new policy of college entrance examination this year has not been announced. It is estimated that it should last for a period of time, stabilize for several years, and there will be no major adjustment every year.
Then, to implement the complete parallel volunteer, let's aim at a number of undergraduate A's. Is the average score in the past three years valuable for reference? Of course, it must be of reference value. Specifically, it may be more reasonable to increase the average score by one or two paragraphs when making reference. Because of parallel volunteer, when its scores are actually admitted, there are some average scores, especially for candidates with high scores. Different from the previous practice of layered volunteering, his high and low scores are naturally differentiated. Students admitted to a school, some scored, some were very low. Candidates with high scores and low scores are relatively large. After the parallel, his situation has basically changed, that is, candidates who often go in will not have much difference in scores. Because he is a big ranking, when you refer to the previous score, I suggest you increase it by one or two paragraphs, that is, after dividing it by its average value, add two paragraphs when you refer to it. In this case, this coordinate may be safer.
Parents of senior three parents asked: Is it better to calculate the average score and the batch line difference or the lowest score and the batch line difference?
Wang: Judging from the year of admission, it should be said that when these two scores are used, it may be more obvious from the lowest score. On average, some fluctuations have disappeared, but it can also be seen from the year. However, if it is used, I still suggest using the average score as a reference for use and application, which may be relatively safe.