Not only that, in an exclusive interview with Forbes on 20 17, he once again stressed that "the real estate bubble in third-and fourth-tier cities has reached an unprecedented level due to excessive development and construction."
Seven years later, I have to say that even the prediction of the former real estate "king of commerce" is outrageous. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 15 to 20 18, the cities with the fastest price increase in China were not first-and second-tier cities, but third-and fourth-tier cities that many people "disdained"-more than 60 third-and fourth-tier cities nationwide, with an average price increase of 55%. The first-tier satellite cities around the ring increased by 200%-300%: Before 2065438+05, the house price level of most third-and fourth-tier cities was 34000 yuan, but after three or four years of "compensation across the board", even the house price of many unknown third-and fourth-tier cities was properly over 10,000 yuan, and the total price of a house was over one million. Even if the average working-class family has an annual income of 65,438+10,000 yuan, it will take at least 20 years to buy it without eating or drinking.
For many third-and fourth-tier cities in China, in fact, before 20 15, the industry agreed that there was "no potential": Ren Zeping, an economist, believes that the continuous concentration of population in the metropolitan area is the general trend in the future, and the future property market differentiation will be very obvious. Third-and fourth-tier cities have no advantages in population, economy or housing supply and demand, so the investment value of developing real estate is not great; Ma Guangyuan, an independent economist, also earnestly advised that "investing in third-and fourth-tier cities is to get chestnuts from the fire, because the housing in third-and fourth-tier cities has already been seriously surplus."
Coincidentally, Yu Ying, a real estate tycoon, is even more outspoken. "For those who invest in real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities or have land in third-and fourth-tier cities, I suggest you sell it quickly and settle down."
Experts and even developers are "not optimistic" about the third-and fourth-tier property markets. We believe that there are three reasons in the final analysis: First, the third-and fourth-tier cities do have excessive development and construction, especially during the period from 20 13 to 20 15, and the ratio of deposit to sales in many third-and fourth-tier cities is as high as 40 months or more; Second, the fundamentals of third-and fourth-tier cities are not enough to support the rapid development of real estate, especially the perennial population loss and slow economic development, which have become the bottleneck restricting the development of most third-and fourth-tier cities; Third, third-and fourth-tier cities are the key areas of shed reform, especially the old city is full of dilapidated houses. Before 20 15, the policy of "demolishing old buildings and building new ones and replacing houses" was implemented, but the speed of demolition was slow, mainly due to the high cost of demolition and the difficulty in obtaining funds for demolition.
Why after 20 15, the capacity of third-and fourth-tier cities will surpass that of first-and second-tier cities and take off completely? Experts believe that the new urbanization and the surge in investment and housing demand have led to a large number of rural people entering the city, but everyone with a discerning eye knows that this is an "excuse." In the past four or five years, real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities has developed rapidly, and house prices have soared rapidly in the short term. The "culprit" is the implementation of the monetary resettlement policy of shed reform.
It is not difficult to find from the data of the proportion of the total construction of shed reform in China published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in recent years that the total construction of shed reform in China in the past five years was 33 million, including 22 million in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the total construction of shed reform in third-and fourth-tier cities accounted for more than 75% of the total in recent five years, which means that more than 3 trillion funds instigated by the "monetization resettlement" of shed reform in the past five years have flowed to the third-and fourth-tier property markets.
Moreover, the monetary resettlement of the shed-to-shed demolition 2.0 model has completely solved the two major problems of the source of demolition funds and the demand for house purchase-all the demolition funds are paid in advance by the central bank and repaid by local demolition in the later period, which not only forms a closed loop of funds, but also leaves enough long-term low-interest loan space for local governments; Demolition is no longer a physical resettlement, but a monetary resettlement, which means that the demolished person must take the funds to the market to buy commercial housing. It can be said that this move not only solves the problem of long-term backlog of inventory, but also creates huge purchasing power out of thin air.
We also saw what happened afterwards. After 20 15, once the monetary resettlement policy of shed reform was implemented, all the third-and fourth-tier cities in China were moved by the wind, and then the house price also ushered in a continuous increase for more than three years. Especially in the first-,third-and fourth-tier cities, the investment demand and capital of a large number of first-and second-tier cities are superimposed, and the house price has more than doubled in two years. Not only that, tens of thousands of investors gathered in third-and fourth-tier cities. They buy properties hoarded in third-and fourth-tier cities in large quantities in order to gain the same rapid appreciation as those in first-and second-tier cities, and then turn around and leave.
The ideal is full, but the reality is very skinny. After 20 19, the scale of shed reform gradually began to shrink. CDB not only recovered the local approval authority, but also at the end of 20 19, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development publicly announced that "the old city reconstruction will not be demolished in the future". The implication is that the shed reform in the future will comprehensively promote the more people-oriented "old reform" and the shed reform and demolition will be completed.
Is the shed reform really "over" This is indeed the case: first of all, the total amount of shed reform started in 20 19 is lower than that in 20 18. The root cause is that the country is trying to "brake". On the one hand, the shed reform has deviated from the track, especially the phenomenon that "local governments issue bonds in the name of shed reform" has become more and more serious, and the state has to take measures; On the other hand, there is little stock left in shed reform. According to economist Zhu Haibin's estimation, the shed reform will be completely withdrawn by 2022 at the latest. At that time, the old transformation was the popular mode of the old city transformation;
Secondly, the mode of changing sheds into large-scale demolition and construction is becoming more and more unpopular. On the one hand, it leads to unfair wealth creation, and some people even demolish hundreds of millions of assets overnight; On the other hand, the cost of monetary resettlement in shed reform is higher, which is not only 30% higher than that in kind, but also not as convenient and fast as the old reform;
Most importantly, according to the "three-year plan for shed reform" formulated by the state in 20 17, 2020 was originally the "year of shed reform". In fact, the "old reform" in 2020 has already entered the market in advance. According to the old reform data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development at the end of 2020, more than 40,000 residential areas were renovated in 2020, exceeding the expected 39,000. Based on this, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that 20021comprehensively promoted the renovation project of dilapidated buildings. Moreover, in the important national topic of 20021,only the old reform was mentioned, and the shed reform was not mentioned at all. Zhongyuan real estate experts believe that the shed reform has been successfully completed and the old reform era has officially arrived.
How will the successful "end" of shed reform affect the trend of housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities? Will house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities rise or fall in the future? For the real estate held by third-and fourth-tier cities, is it to sell or stay? An expert from Peking University once said:
According to Red Star News, on March 23rd, 20021year, Yao Yang, president of National Development Research Institute of Peking University, bluntly said at an economic forum, "I'm afraid there is still room for rising house prices in nine central cities and urban agglomerations. However, due to the successful completion of shed reform and the promotion of new urbanization roads and urbanization strategies, housing prices in non-central cities will be difficult to maintain, especially in cities with serious population outflows, and the downward pressure on housing prices is even greater. "
Will housing prices rise or fall in third-and fourth-tier cities in the future? Experts in Peking University put it very thoroughly: it is difficult to maintain. In other words, with the lack of core supporting forces for shed renovation and demolition, and the implementation of the national strategy of focusing on developing megacities and promoting the construction of urban agglomerations, the development of third-and fourth-tier cities in the future is in jeopardy, and house prices have dropped significantly. Especially in cities with serious population outflow, the pressure of falling house prices is even greater.
The future trend of housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities is clear at a glance. Should the properties held by such cities be sold or kept? The above experts bluntly said: it varies according to the demand-even if the house price of self-occupied housing fluctuates in the future, you should not be anxious. It is unwise to sell a stop loss. After all, solving housing is the first priority. With the current market situation, it is difficult to have better home sales in the third and fourth lines, and it is more reasonable to keep them;
For investment-oriented housing, experts believe that it should be carried out as soon as possible. However, the expert also reminded that even if the downward trend of housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities in the next few years is thoroughly understood, it is difficult to realize the realization of selling houses. There are two reasons: on the one hand, the market will be in an embarrassing situation of "having a price but no market" for a long time; on the other hand, after the core support force of shed reform disappears, there will be a gap in housing and capital demand, and it is almost unrealistic to cash out at a high level. Therefore, investors who want to invest in real estate speculators do not want to be trapped for a long time. They must learn to lower their posture and take the initiative to reduce prices as soon as possible in order to achieve the goal of getting out smoothly. Otherwise, it will really become a "glorious takeover" for developers and the country. In short, all investment-oriented houses in third-and fourth-tier cities should be sold as soon as possible, and there is no need to keep one.
Based on the above remarks that "there may still be room for rising house prices in nine central cities and urban agglomerations", after selling third-and fourth-tier cities, we should pay close attention to the allocation of these cities whose house prices are still rising, which is the most sensible asset allocation method for investors in third-and fourth-tier cities at this stage.