The epidemic situation is gradually under control, and whether to return to work is a difficult multiple-choice question. As long as the case growth continues, the manufacturing industry will definitely face the risk of transmission if it chooses to return to work. However, it is definitely not good to drag on like this. Do we need economic indicators to ensure growth?
Theoretically, our Spring Festival holiday will end on February 2nd. Most people like us who can finish some work in front of the computer screen started working at home on February 3. Some jokes are actually true. For example, if you continue to work at home, the boss will find that you are different from you. 99% of the time in the conference call is "Hello?" . For the manufacturing industry, returning to work means that workers need to be on duty, and the production line is not moving, which means that they will get 0 points.
On February 6th, an application letter from Beijing Benz caused a discussion among people who eat melons in the automobile industry and financial industry. The application letter probably has the following main points:
The company wants to resume work in February10; The company's safety stock is only one day; The premise of our resumption of work is that the supplier can resume work; If we can't return to work, our daily economic loss is 400 million RMB, which is a huge loss for the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
The risk of returning to work is not within the scope of our discussion. At present, Mercedes-Benz has resumed work in an orderly, smooth and safe manner. For people who eat melons, 400 million yuan a day is probably unimaginable. Most people don't work at home for a day, and the loss is almost 200,300, 500 yuan.
So how is the 400 million yuan of this day calculated?
First of all, BAIC is a listed company, and its financial reports are all public figures. February is not the time to announce the 20 19 annual financial report. Let's take a look at its financial report for the first half of 20 19.
In the first half of 2065438+2009, the operating income of Beijing Automobile was 87.764 billion RMB, and in the third quarter it was 1380299838 RMB. Generally speaking, the revenue of Beijing Benz is about 80%-90%, that is, at least 70 billion RMB according to the semi-annual report, divided by half a year 180 days, which is 390 million RMB per day. According to the third quarter, it will exceed 400 million every day.
Therefore, it is not sensational that we stop production and lose 400 million yuan a day. Maybe it's just that we are too poor, and we really don't know when there will be a lot of zero funds in the future.
In addition, Beijing Benz continues to maintain its growth momentum. In June 2020, 5438+ 10, the sales volume of Beijing Benz increased by 18.8% year-on-year, reaching 67,572 vehicles, and the monthly sales volume of Mercedes-Benz E-Class even exceeded 20,000 vehicles. Note that last year's Spring Festival was held in February, and this year's Spring Festival was held in 65438+ 10. If such a good momentum is broken because of factory production problems, do you think it is urgent?
However, at the same time, we need to point out some of these problems. One day's safety stock, we can't judge the authenticity of this information. However, starting from the actual situation, orderly resumption of work does not mean that it can be started at full capacity on the same day. At present, the normal operation of the whole national transportation logistics and even 4S stores has not been restored. On the first day of construction, it still contributed 400 million GDP, which is unrealistic.
So our conclusion is. First of all, it only represents our simple analysis. Beijing Benz factory stopped production for one day, resulting in an economic loss of 400 million yuan. Really! If the supplier doesn't resume production in the same place immediately, the factory will stop working soon, which may not be so serious. The success of returning to work in February 10 means full blood resurrection, which is also unrealistic.
But there is no doubt that the epidemic has had a serious impact on the national and even global automobile manufacturing industry.
The first is the automobile factory in Hubei. If they want to resume production, it is not as simple as applying. Dongfeng, Peugeot Citroen, Honda, Nissan Renault, and enterprises with factories in Hubei basically confessed in February, which is obvious.
In fact, a large number of auto parts manufacturers including Bosch, Borgwarner and Visteon have set up factories in Hubei. Automobile manufacturing is a global chess game. Mercedes-Benz's statement is reasonable. If something goes wrong with the supplier, I can't resume production. Temporarily changing suppliers or supplying by other suppliers' factories bypassed the problem of insufficient production capacity.
At present, the overseas factories of automobile manufacturers that have stopped working or reduced production due to the tight supply of spare parts include Nissan Kyushu factory, which suffered a shutdown crisis on February 4; Hyundai's factory in South Korea also temporarily interrupted production; FCA said that the inventory of some spare parts is very tight, and Jaguar Land Rover has taken emergency measures such as air transportation to ensure the production of British factories. It can be seen that even car companies that are currently producing normally are trying their best to ensure that normal production can continue next month.
Fortunately, the epidemic situation in COVID-19, China, except Hubei, has obviously improved, and factories have started one after another. At present, the only difficult problem is the poor flow of personnel, and the arrival rate of manufacturing employees is not up to standard. One of my college roommates currently runs a foreign trade garment processing factory in Guangdong. He told me a few days ago that the factory's resumption of work has been approved and is progressing in an orderly manner, but many workers still feel that it is risky to start work now, so they choose not to resume work for the time being. Moreover, the traffic from the towns where people flow out to the places where people flow in has not been fully restored.
In addition, the suspension of production by suppliers will not only affect the automobile manufacturing industry. Imagine that the after-sales maintenance of car dealers will also be seriously affected because there is no spare parts supply. When you go to the 4S shop, you need to do maintenance and replace the brake pads. The 4S shop tells you that the factory has stopped production and is waiting. What else can you do? Mercedes-Benz's "400 million a day" is a microcosm of the impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry and everyone's normal production and life. It's really not that simple that you didn't make money today.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.