(A) non-state-owned investment and state-owned investment "go hand in hand". From 1997 to 1999, state-owned investment grew strongly. In the following three years, the growth momentum of non-state-owned investment gradually recovered, and collective economy, individual investment and other investments became the main driving forces. The growth rate of state-owned economic investment declined, and the proportion of increment gradually decreased. Since 2003, state-owned investment has once again shown a rapid growth momentum. Non-state-owned investment in China is currently in a highly active period, and state-owned investment is booming again, thus promoting the rapid growth of investment in the whole society.
(2) Capital construction investment has become the focus of investment growth. Since 200 1, capital construction investment has become the main factor to promote investment growth. Generally speaking, the influence of policy factors on investment tends to increase. Among them, the policy promotion characteristics of infrastructure investment are obvious. Its advantage is that it can take effect quickly when the economy is cold, but its disadvantage is that its inertia is large, which often leads to overheating of the economy and structural distortion. From the last two years, the contribution of capital construction investment to the investment growth of the whole society is obvious again.
(3) The contribution of self-raised and other investment funds remained at a high level, while the contribution of bank loans increased. From the source of funds: First, the growth rate and proportion of funds in the national budget have decreased simultaneously, which shows that the use structure of funds in the budget has changed obviously with the improvement of the external environment. Second, the rapid expansion of bank loans driven by interests, but at the same time restricted by relevant policy factors, shows that the proportion of bank loans in the total investment has not changed much, and it is the second largest contribution factor after self-raised funds and other funds. Third, the utilization of foreign capital has a strong growth momentum, but its contribution is still very low. Fourth, self-financing and other funds grew strongly. It can be said that with the support of self-raised funds and other capital growth, China's economy is in a stage of rapid investment growth accompanied by a new round of economic growth.
Analysis, the main factors affecting investment changes are:
(A) the spontaneous role of the market. On the one hand, the diversification of consumer demand and structural upgrading have driven the development of investment demand. On the other hand, the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization has promoted the rapid development of infrastructure, energy and real estate industries. Generally speaking, after several years of economic restructuring, the market is gradually active and new investment fields are expanding day by day. Although the market can guide the investment behavior spontaneously, it does not deny that it is blind, especially in the case that the current market price information feedback system is not perfect. The main manifestations are as follows: First, the consumer price remains at a low level, indicating that consumption has little contribution to the acceleration of economic and investment growth, and investment is a kind of "virtual fever" to a certain extent. Second, there are still some deviations in the investment structure, and the stamina for upgrading the industrial structure is insufficient. Third, the output structure and employment structure are misplaced. Restricted by the current economic environment, residents' demand for service industry is limited, and the contradiction of employment pressure is becoming more and more prominent.
(2) the supply of investment funds. In the initial stage of implementing the proactive fiscal policy, exogenous factors have a great influence on the sources of investment funds, and the growth rate and incremental proportion of the total funds in the national budget continue to increase, while self-raised and other investment funds drop sharply. Since 2000, the situation has changed significantly. The growth rate of funds in the national budget has dropped to about 20%. The growth rate of domestic loans, self-raised funds and other investment funds has generally increased substantially. In terms of capital characteristics, investment risk-bearing funds (such as advance payment and deposit for house purchase, self-owned funds of non-state-owned enterprises, various forms of fund-raising, etc.). ) are constantly growing, supporting the increase in investment growth. Funds with weak risk-taking ability (such as state-owned funds and bond funds) are difficult to grow.
(3) Economic development expectation. An important factor affecting investment is expectation. As far as market expectations are concerned. Since 200 1, the profit rate of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises above designated size has been on the rise. In the face of good profitability, entrepreneurs' confidence is at the highest level in recent years, and their investment confidence has been enhanced. In addition, the increase in the price of means of production leads to the decrease of profit expectation and real interest rate, which is also an important factor. In terms of government management expectation, driven by economic growth, social employment and other tasks, and attracted by local interests, local governments will inevitably choose to increase investment, which is the fastest and effective way. In this case, investors do not bear the responsibility of investment losses or investment mistakes, at least not completely, but also gain political achievements and control more resources.
(4) Policy environmental impact. First, in the process of adjusting market rules after China's entry into WTO, some industry access restrictions were cancelled, the examination and approval system was reformed, and the protection of investors' property rights was strengthened to some extent. Second, the total money supply is sufficient. Third, strict control policies have been implemented for some industries, which has affected the investment in fixed assets, especially the supply of real estate funds to a certain extent.
Not long ago, "the State Council's Decision on the Reform of Investment System" was promulgated, so we should pay close attention to its implementation and truly establish the dominant position of enterprises in the competitive field.
1. Strengthen investment legislation and law enforcement to provide investors with adequate legal protection. Focus on strengthening the independence of investment property rights, investment income rights, investment ownership, investment contract performance and intellectual property protection. In terms of market access, we will continue to clean up the current investment access policy, embody the principle of national treatment and fair competition, and establish an open and transparent administrative licensing system. Strengthen the transparency of law enforcement supervision and policy implementation.
2. Accelerate the transformation of government functions. The first is to promote the reform of the cadre performance appraisal system. Second, governments at all levels can not be the main investors in commercial projects, but they can be one of the main investors in public welfare projects, and investors must bear corresponding responsibilities.
3. Implement a fair and reasonable tax policy and guide the investment of funds reasonably. The first is to adjust unfair taxes. The second is to adjust the export tax rebate of some industries, ensure that some resources and products meet the domestic market demand, and at the same time curb the excessive growth of investment in these industries. The third is to set up a resource adjustment tax. The fourth is to rationally adjust the central and local taxes.
4. Accelerate financial reform and broaden financing channels. It is necessary to control the scale of investment through market mechanism.
5, encourage the spontaneous establishment of industry associations, chambers of commerce and other non-governmental organizations and market intermediary service institutions. Conduct industry self-discipline through spontaneous industry organizations. Support the development of intermediary service institutions such as law, accounting, evaluation and market information, and correctly guide market investment expectations.