1) has excellent performance in high-voltage and high-power application scenarios, and is suitable for high-voltage scenes above 600 V. Compared with the silicon carbide-based MOSFET of the specification, the size is reduced to110, the on-resistance is reduced to1100, and the total energy loss is reduced by 70%. Downstream applications include new energy vehicles, charging piles, photovoltaics, wind power, rail transit and other fields.
2) Thanks to the explosion of new energy vehicles, the golden age of SiC industrialization will come. Yole predicts that the market size of SiC power devices will reach $4.5 billion in 2026, and CAGR=36% in 2020-2026. New energy vehicles are the main growth driver of silicon carbide power device market, and the application end is to solve the pain point of battery life. Cost end: Bicycles can save 400-800 dollars in battery cost. Client: Tesla and other car companies have successively laid out. At present, Tesla is only used in main inverter, and there is room for further application and improvement in the future.
3) Cost performance is the key to the large-scale use of SiC devices, and substrate preparation is the core to improve the cost performance of SiC. In the cost of silicon carbide devices, substrates, epitaxy and devices account for 46%, 23% and 20% respectively. Substrate is the core of reducing the cost of silicon carbide, the part with the highest technical barrier, and the key to reducing the cost of SiC and promoting large-scale industrialization in the future.
SiC substrate: New energy vehicle+photovoltaic has great demand potential; The gap at home and abroad is gradually narrowing, and domestic substitution is expected.
1) market space: It is estimated that the market demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic inverters will reach 26 1 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 79% in 20021-2025. New energy vehicles: At present, only the annual demand of Tesla Model 3/Y can consume most of the global SiC wafer production capacity. We estimate that if the SiC penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 60% in 2025, it is estimated that the demand for 6-inch SiC substrates will reach 5.87 million pieces/year, and the market space will reach 23/kloc-0.0 billion yuan. Photovoltaic inverter: In the era of "big module, big inverter and big series connection", the voltage level of photovoltaic power station has been increased from 1000V to above 1500V, and silicon carbide power devices are expected to become standard. We assume that the permeability of silicon carbide will increase to 50% in 2025, and the corresponding SiC substrate market will reach 3 billion yuan. The core bottleneck of the industry lies in insufficient supply.
2) Competition pattern: the gap between China and foreign countries is gradually narrowing, and domestic expectations are replaced. At present, leading overseas manufacturers (Wolfspeed and II-VI account for more than 60% of the market share) have achieved large-scale supply of 6 inches and marched into 8 inches. Domestic manufacturers (Tian Yue Advanced, Tianke Heda, Jingsheng Electromechanical, Lu Xiao Science and Technology, etc. ) mainly small size, marching to 6 inches. However, it can be observed that the gap at home and abroad is narrowing, and the overall gap is smaller than that of traditional silicon-based semiconductors. The gap at home and abroad has narrowed from the past 10- 15 years (4 inches) to within 5- 10 years (6 inches). It is expected that the gap will be further narrowed in the process of marching to 8 inches in the future.
3) manufacturing process: compared with silicon-based semiconductor, the difficulty is greatly increased; Crystal growth is the key. Silicon carbide substrate belongs to technology-intensive industry. The core difficulties are: the crystal growth process is complex (only 4H and other crystal forms are needed), the growth speed is slow (only 0.2-0.3mm per hour, which is nearly 100 times slower than traditional crystalline silicon), and the yield is low (the hardness is close to that of diamond, so it is difficult to cut, grind and polish). Industry-University-Research is an important driving force for the development of domestic silicon carbide substrates. Domestic universities and scientific research institutions mainly include Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shandong University and Shanghai Institute of Silicate.
4) Industry trend: Cost reduction is the core of industrialization, extending to large scale. At present, the price of 6-inch SiC substrate is 1000 USD/piece, which is several times that of traditional silicon-based semiconductor. The methods to reduce the cost in the future include: improving the material utilization rate (large-scale, extending from 4 inches to 6 inches and 8 inches), reducing the manufacturing cost (improving the yield) and improving the production efficiency (more mature crystal growth process).
SiC substrate equipment: there is little difference from traditional crystalline silicon, and process adjustment is the core barrier.
Mainly includes: crystal growth furnace, slicer, grinder, polisher, cleaning equipment, etc. It has some similarities with the traditional crystalline silicon equipment, but the process is more difficult. There are fewer third-party equipment manufacturers of silicon carbide substrates, and more enterprises focus on the integrated layout of equipment and manufacturing, which is convenient for holding the core process secrets in their own hands. Mutual feedback is the key to joint research and development of equipment and technology.
Capital proposal
Risk warning: R&D progress is less than expected risk; International trade disputes aggravate risks.