In the eyes of the industry, Agile is obviously unaware of the potential crisis. The deterioration of the environment and the immaturity of its own tourism products are causing its assets to shrink on a large scale. This "fast company" racing around in tourism real estate has become heavy at the moment.
Peach event fermentation
For Agile, which started in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province and kept a low profile, it was never expected that the "peach scandal" that started in Hong Kong would continue to ferment and hit its share price hard.
On August 23, Hong Kong media revealed that a female secretary of Agile's board chairman reported to the police that she had been molested by Chen. It is reported that Chen Zhuolin was suspected of molesting his female secretary after a banquet in his home on the evening of July 10. Four days later, the female secretary called the police. On August 30, Chen was arrested while providing information to Wan Chai Police Station, and was released on bail.
On September 5th, the Singapore company DBS Bank released a report, pointing out that Agile may default on some bank loans if Chen Zhuolin resigns as the chairman of the board of directors, and it is estimated that an offshore loan of RMB 4 billion is regarded as a breach of contract. DBS Bank also said that Agile has discussed this possibility with several banks. If Chen Zhuolin is found guilty, Agile will seek an exemption clause or use overseas funds to repay the loan.
The deputy director of Agile Capital Market mentioned that the Group is discussing several emergency plans with banks. The deputy director also confirmed that if Chen Zhuolin leaves office, five offshore loans will be affected, involving 700 million US dollars (about 4 billion RMB).
It is understood that from September 20 10 to May 20 12, Agile signed five credit agreements with banks such as Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation and Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), which have not yet expired. These include three Hong Kong dollar loans and two US dollar loans.
At present, 57% of Agile's loans have additional terms. For example, the trust fund held by the Chen Zhuolin family must hold more than 50% shares of Agile; Among them, there is an offshore loan of 4 billion yuan, which explicitly requires Chen Zhuolin to be the chairman of Agile.
According to Agile management, Chen may be suspended or imprisoned for no more than 10 years. However, Agile can also ask HKEx to confirm Chen Zhuolin's position as chairman after being convicted.
On September 5th, Moody's released a report saying that although the rating of Agile-related bonds has not been adjusted, it has had a negative impact on the company. As of that date, Agile's share price has fallen by 16% and its market value has evaporated by nearly HK$ 6 billion.
On September 10, when talking about the influence of the peach affair on the company, the person in charge of a brand of Agile Group told the reporter that the incident was only Chen Zhuolin's personal behavior. Regarding the credit default risk of RMB4 billion questioned by public opinion, "it is only speculation of some institutions" and "Mr. Chen Zhuo is still participating in the normal operation of the Group".
Potential crisis appears.
In 2009, Agile made a lot of money with the first Clear Water Bay project in tourism real estate. Cross-regional and nationwide marketing model has made this one-sided real estate company quickly become a star fast company concerned by the industry.
However, Agile, which has maintained a high profit margin due to low-priced land purchase and high-priced sales, experienced a negative gross profit margin for the first time in the first half of this year.
The company's semi-annual report shows that Agile's turnover income in the first half of the year was118.48 million, with a year-on-year change of 1. 1%, but its gross profit was only 5.364 billion, with a change of-12.7%. Gross profit margin decreased by 7. 1 percentage point year-on-year to 45.3%. 20 10 reached the highest value of 53.9%, which increased by 8.6 percentage points and 89.5% respectively.
People familiar with Agile told Caijing Weekly that in order to sprint for half a year's performance this year, many properties of Agile were greatly discounted, resulting in a decline in profit margins; Moreover, because of the decline in sales of the Qingshuiwan project in Hainan, the company had to "paint fat to make up for thin" and make a 15% discount on all residential projects in Zhongshan, the "base camp".
In this regard, the person in charge of a brand of Agile Group replied that the 20 th anniversary of Agile was the main reason for the 7.5% discount promotion of residential projects in Zhongshan. For the price reduction sales of the Qingshui Bay project, the person in charge explained that "the price reduction is limited to specific properties, not the price reduction of coastal houses.
It is understood that Agile's land price per square meter in 20 10 is132 yuan, and the average selling price is 1 1406 yuan; The figures of 20 1 1 are 1277 yuan and 10 144 yuan respectively; 20 12 years is 1293 yuan, 9939 yuan. The rising cost of land acquisition and the falling sales price directly led to the downward trend of gross profit.
This downward trend is most obvious in its Clearwater Bay tourism real estate project. In 2007, Agile took the land at a price of about 240 yuan per square meter; Sales began in March 2009, and the initial price of the building was 7000 yuan per square meter; 20 10 with the help of the development boom in tourism real estate after Hainan was identified as an international tourist island, the price rose to 30,000-40,000 yuan per square meter, and the gross profit growth rate reached 89%.
20 1 1 With the development of national real estate regulation in China, tourism real estate has been directly affected as an investment product. The sales of Qingshuiwan project in that year was only 7.2 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan less than that of the previous year, and 72% of the annual target tasks were completed.
This year, the regulation of the real estate market is still severe. Coupled with the bottleneck of tourism real estate's development, the sales of Clear Water Bay continued to decline. The sales confirmed in the first half of the year was only 65.438+54.3 million yuan, which was 72.9% lower than that of 2065.438+0. 1 in the same period.
Since the Clear Water Bay project accounts for 30% of Agile's total revenue, the continuous decline of the project also increases the risk of the company's capital chain breaking. According to people in the industry close to Agile, the sales pressure in the second half of the year is very great, because the first half of the year has already included the sales peak season during the Spring Festival.
However, a real estate analyst of Shanghai Admiralty Real Estate (Group) Co., Ltd. told Caijing Weekly that Agile's two major sectors are tourism real estate and residential real estate. Although the sales of Clear Water Bay in tourism real estate have declined, the capital chain can be maintained to some extent through the sharp price reduction of other projects.
In the eyes of companies and experts in the same industry, Agile's "quick success and instant benefit" in tourism real estate is the most criticized.
People familiar with Agile told reporters that during the development of the tourism real estate project in Qingshuiwan, Hainan, the drawings of Guangzhou Agile residential project were directly copied, which reduced the development cycle and timely withdrew funds. But this makes "tourism real estate" just a concept.
In this regard, the brand department of Agile Group explained that it is "a good thing" for Agile's projects to learn from each other in the development process, which can build Agile's own brand; Regarding the question of tourism real estate as a residential real estate, the person in charge said that when the company is doing a project, the biggest consideration must be the sales volume of the project.
According to Professor Wu Bihu of Peking University City Circle College, tourism real estate is very different from residential real estate, and the former is mainly aimed at foreign vacationers. When building real estate in tourism real estate, if you refuse to spend money and energy to build tourism products and tourist attractions, then these houses may not be sold at first, and those who sell them for the second time will suffer.