According to the website of the Russian President, Putin instructed Russian Defense Minister shoigu on the 5th to ask the Russian army to implement a ceasefire along the contact line between the Russian and Ukrainian armies from 6: 00 12 to 7: 00 Moscow time. Putin said that the move was in response to the ceasefire proposal of Russian Orthodox Patriarch kirill. He also called on the Ukrainian side to implement a ceasefire and give religious believers the opportunity to conduct religious activities during the Orthodox Christmas. 65438+1October 7th is Orthodox Christmas. Russian Orthodox Patriarch kirill called on all parties to the conflict to cease fire during the festival earlier on the 5th. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, 2022, in order to evacuate civilians or other humanitarian considerations, Russia has repeatedly ordered a limited ceasefire in the local area, but the ceasefire order on the 5 th was the first time that Putin instructed the army to cease fire throughout Ukraine.
For Putin's appeal, the Ukrainian side did not buy it. Zelensky made a video speech on social media on the 5th, saying that he didn't think it was necessary to cease fire during traditional festivals, and that Russia "wanted to use Christmas as a cover" to prevent Ukrainian troops from launching a counterattack and took the opportunity to transport equipment and ammunition. Podolyak, adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, also posted on social media that a "temporary truce" would be possible only if Russian troops left Ukrainian territory. Paulian, Russian Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said on Twitter: "This reminds us once again who we are fighting in Ukraine-cruel nationalist criminals who are willing to sacrifice their country and people for western geopolitical games. They don't respect sacred things. "
The United Nations welcomed Russia's decision to cease fire. "Christmas is a sacred moment for Russians and Ukrainians," dugarry, spokesman of the UN Secretary-General, said at a news conference on the 5th. At this moment, the Secretary-General of the United Nations has always welcomed the possibility of stopping the war. "
On the 5th, when asked about Putin's announcement of a ceasefire, US President Biden said that he thought Putin's decision was to "give himself some air and take a break". The State Council spokesman Price said that the Russian cease-fire order seems to be a strategy of "rest, refit, regroup and finally attack again". European Council President Michelle accused Putin of being "absurd and hypocritical" on Twitter on the 5th.
Some analysts believe that the United States questioned Russia's "ceasefire" intention, but did not want the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to end. The American Foreign Affairs magazine said on the 5th that at present only Washington has the ability to push Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, but it decided not to do so. "Therefore, the war is still going on, and it has paid a terrible human price." Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the China Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 6th that the United States did not want Ukraine to "exchange land for peace" and the West did not want to give up on the Ukrainian issue, so the United States only made a gesture of appeasement, in fact, it constantly "handed a knife" to Ukraine. In the eyes of the United States, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a rare opportunity to consume and contain Russia, and an important starting point for integrating and revitalizing NATO and promoting NATO's Asia-Pacific and globalization. The United States also hopes to use the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to prevent economic and energy cooperation between Russia and the EU.
Russia's Tough Response to Western Military Assistance to Ukraine
The German Federal Government issued a statement on the 5th, saying that German Chancellor Angela Scholz and Biden had a telephone conversation that day, and the two sides reached an agreement during the call that Germany would provide Ukraine with "weasel" infantry fighting vehicles and a set of "Patriot" air defense missile systems. The United States will provide Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Patriot air defense missile systems to Ukraine as planned. Reuters quoted US officials as saying that this round of US military assistance included 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
The U.S. Department of Defense has not yet confirmed where the Patriot system to aid Ukraine will come from. The US Congressional Research Service said in a report on the 2nd that US-aided air defense systems and related interceptors "are likely to be transferred from the army and inventory". According to the report, it is widely speculated that the Patriot system will be delivered in the first half of 2023, but it will take about 53 weeks to train only local maintenance personnel. "Ukraine can use' Patriots' as early as 2024".
The British "Financial Times" said that providing infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine marked a great change in Schultz's policy toward Ukraine. Prior to this, he had been very reluctant to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine, fearing that NATO might be dragged into the war. Voa quoted American military expert Bowman as saying that the Bradley chariot was "a major upgrade of US military assistance to Ukraine". The Russian newspaper newspaper said that the use of American infantry fighting vehicles will enhance the mobility of the Ukrainian army in carrying out operations such as force transfer, surprise attack and interspersed encirclement. The terrain in southern Ukraine is very conducive to related actions. But the problem is that the Bradley chariot may not appear in Ukraine until April and May this year at the earliest. On the other hand, such aid from western countries still cannot meet Uzbekistan's requirements. Zelensky again called on western countries to provide heavier weapons on the 4th. According to American media reports, Ukraine hopes that the United States and its allies will provide abrams tanks and German Leopard tanks.
At the same time, Russia has also stepped up the deployment of strategic weapons. Putin announced on the 4th that the Russian navy frigate "gorshkov Admiral of the fleet" equipped with "Zircon" hypersonic missile began to sail. Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, warned the United States on the 5th that the "New Year's gift" equipped with zircon missiles is approaching the coast of NATO countries, which can break through any anti-missile system and "enlighten anyone who dares to threaten Russia and its allies".
"When the mud freezes, you will know the answer."
Will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine come to an end or escalate further in 2023? Clark, deputy director of the Exeter Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, believes that the decisive factor of the conflict in 2023 depends on Russia's offensive in the spring. Russia announced that about 50 thousand newly mobilized troops had arrived at the front; The newly mobilized 250,000 people are also training for this year's attack. Former NATO general Domreze said that the most likely negotiation time between Russia and Ukraine is from February to May this year. By then, both sides will realize that it is futile to continue fighting. Latz, an expert on Russian issues at the German Foreign Relations Association, predicted that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may be held this summer. He believes that Russia will hold a presidential election in 2024, so this year will reduce the intensity of fighting. In addition, the supply problem of Russian troops is likely to intensify in summer.
Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies of the Russian Higher School of Economics, said that the United States may provide Uzbekistan with weapons capable of attacking Russian territory, such as long-range missiles and drones, in 2023, which will further escalate the confrontation. Gendelman, an Israeli military expert, believes that what Russia and Ukraine want to achieve in the next stage is not how to end the conflict, but how to maintain the status quo. Russia is likely to continue its current tactics, that is, slowly suppressing the Ukrainian army in a narrow direction and continuing to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a slow advance. For the Ukrainian army, the most strategic direction is southward, reaching upor and Erjansk in Mali, with the aim of cutting off the passage from Russian mainland to Crimea. "When the mud freezes, we will know the answer to the question, and then we can answer how the conflict will end."
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations of Nanjing University, told the Global Times on the 6th that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2023 will focus on three aspects: war, talk and pressure. At present, the international community generally believes that Russia-Ukraine political negotiations should be restarted, but only if the positions of all parties have changed to what extent. On the one hand, if the United States wants to talk about it, it will reduce its military assistance to Ukraine on a large scale and cannot continue to regard the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a big country proxy war. On the other hand, Zelensky also needs to face the reality-the longer the war, the heavier the humanitarian crisis Ukraine will encounter, so the Ukrainian government needs to make a very clear political decision. In addition, in terms of "pressure", the EU should further clarify its attitude and let the United States reduce its military support to Ukraine. At the same time, the international community should also put pressure on Russia and Ukraine to reduce air strikes on each other's infrastructure.