As the Twelfth Five-Year Plan enters the design stage, we need to think about what the positioning of the whole plan should be. Tsinghua University National Situation Research Center began to participate in the research of the 11th Five-Year Plan in 2003, and was officially designed for the National Development and Reform Commission in 2005. During the formulation of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, climate change has become the biggest limiting factor and constraint condition at home and abroad that we must consider. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction and coping with climate change need to become one of the core development goals and policies of the country, which is not only a huge challenge, but also a huge opportunity and important innovation. We suggest that the innovative direction of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan should be "green development plan".

So how should we highlight the green development plan in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan? As mentioned above, the core of green development is the "decoupling" between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, so we need to further dilute and narrow economic indicators during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. According to the systematic analysis of the past five-year plan, we can see that the proportion of economic indicators in the five-year plan has changed significantly since the reform and opening up. During the Sixth Five-Year Plan period from 198 1 to 1985, that is, when we started the reform and opening up, economic indicators accounted for more than 60% of the five-year plan at that time, while non-economic indicators only accounted for less than 40%. However, by the 11th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of economic indicators has dropped to 2 1%, and the proportion of non-economic indicators including energy saving and emission reduction has greatly increased to nearly 80%. Therefore, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, we will further narrow economic indicators, strengthen and increase green development indicators, and form a performance appraisal system that is conducive to encouraging and promoting green development.

Specific indicators and design of the 12th Five-Year Plan put forward by China. This is put forward on the basis of summarizing and studying the 11th Five-Year Plan and the mid-term evaluation of the 11th Five-Year Plan in China in August 2008 and February 2009.

First, we must continue to implement the quantitative indicators of energy conservation during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, that is, we must require the energy consumption per unit of GDP to drop by 20%.

Second, the proportion of renewable energy and clean energy consumption, which was once a secondary priority indicator, should be increased from 9% in 2008 and 65,438+00% in 2065,438+05 to 65,438+00%. This means that China will achieve the goal of 2020 15% ahead of schedule. That is to say, it will be realized before 20 16 and 20 17, and it will not be realized until 2020, and it has a good trend in recent years.

Third, more importantly, the discharge of major pollutants continues to decrease 10% in absolute value.

Fourth, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 20%. This is the first time to put forward the emission reduction target of carbon dioxide emission intensity. In fact, if we can achieve the first and second goals mentioned above, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP can exceed 20%. Because first of all, the energy consumption per unit GDP has decreased by 20%, and the proportion of renewable energy and clean energy in energy consumption has further increased, so that the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP can be reduced by more than 20%.

Fifth, the forest coverage rate. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the national forest coverage rate increased from 18% to 20%, and it is expected to further increase by 2 percentage points during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

These are the national core indicators of green development. In addition, there are some sub-priority indicators, as shown in Table 4. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the forest stock will increase by 500 million cubic meters, the utilization ratio of clean coal, whether it is power generation or direct coal burning, will increase by 8 percentage points, the air quality, especially in cities above Grade II, will increase by 5 percentage points, the loss of natural disasters will be less than 1.5%, and the proportion of green ecological space (defined as four aspects: first, forest, second, grassland and third, wetland). The last indicator is the proportion of our total investment in environmental pollution control to GDP, and strive to increase from 1.22% to more than 2%. If we can take major measures in this regard, we are fully qualified and capable of achieving green development, or take the Twelfth Five-Year Plan as an important starting point for green development.

The above indicators aim at slowing down greenhouse gas emissions and actively adapting to climate change, and adopt measurable, evaluable and comparable indicators to objectively measure the scientific development and green development in different regions of China. Therefore, when we evaluate the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and participate in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, a very important innovation is to use some quantifiable indicators to represent the national development goals.