This joke is obviously just a joke, but will high housing prices really affect the fertility wishes of young couples? Dare not have children, really just because you can't afford a house?

People often have their own subjective understanding of this statement, but there has been a lack of enough samples for statistical verification.

Recently, a research report released by Zillow, the largest real estate platform in the United States, confirmed that there is a strong negative correlation between housing prices and fertility rates!

The report points out that the average fertility rate will drop by 1.5% every time the house price rises, taking the women aged 25-29 in the United States as a sample. But in big cities like LA, Seattle and new york, the impact of high housing prices on fertility rate is more obvious.

In big cities where the cost of living is already high, the fertility enthusiasm of young couples is more easily affected by housing prices.

According to a survey conducted by Chicago Tribune, 82% of the respondents attributed the decline in fertility rate to "financial factors". If you want to raise children, the whole family must move to a bigger house, and the cost of changing houses has become an "unbearable burden" for many young families in the United States.

Every time the house price rises 10%, the fertility rate decreases 1.5%.

Talko Gen, an analyst at Zillow Research Institute, made a statistical analysis based on the company's 20 17 report on the US housing market and the county population data provided by the CDC in the United States.

Judging from the trend of house prices, the price increase in the northwest and southwest of the United States is much greater than that in the midwest and east:

Last year, the price increase in Seattle was about12.5%;

San Francisco, California grew by about 9.5%;

Dallas, Texas rose by 9.3%;

The increase in Las Vegas even reached 14.3%.

Judging from the birth data, the fertility rate has dropped faster in areas where house prices have increased greatly.

Looking at the fertility rate of young women (25-29 years old) from 20 10 to 20 16, California and Texas, the two most populous States in the southwest of the United States, also have the largest decline in fertility rate:

The fertility rate in the counties under the jurisdiction of Austin, the capital of Texas, has dropped by 22%, and the fertility rates in Los Angeles and San Diego, California have also generally dropped by more than 16%.

In addition, the fertility rate in the counties under the jurisdiction of Seattle in the northwestern United States has also decreased by 18%.

Looking at the situation in all parts of the United States, the statistical correlation between house price (represented by the horizontal axis) and fertility rate (represented by the vertical axis) is extremely strong: every time the house price in a county increases by 10 percentage point, the local fertility rate decreases by10.5 percentage point.

The report also found that in new york, LA, Seattle, Chicago and other big cities, the fertility rate of young women will drop more than that in rural areas under the premise of a certain increase in house prices.

Fertility desire may be related to many factors.

According to the Zillow report, from 20 10 to 20 13, the average age of Americans buying a house for the first time is 32.5 years old. With the rise of housing prices, the average age of first-time buyers in 20 17 years has increased to 35.7 years.

At the same time, the time when women choose to have children is also delayed: 20 10 years, the average age of the first mother in the United States is 27.7 years, and by 20 17 years, the average age of young women in the United States choosing to be mothers is delayed to 28.7 years.

So, what is the connection between not being able to afford a house and not having children?

According to a survey conducted by Chicago Tribune, the main reason why respondents are afraid of having children is financial worries: 82% of respondents are worried that their financial expenses will be stretched after giving birth, while only 80% are worried that they will decide to have children in a hurry before their relationship is completely stable.

The Zillow report pointed out that the expenses that need to be considered when giving birth to a child include absence from work outside maternity leave, childcare expenses for raising a child, and room change expenses brought about by the need for more living space for the whole family. Among them, housing demand is the biggest expenditure.

Of course, a strong statistical correlation does not mean an inevitable causal link, and some experts are looking for explanations other than house prices for the dismal fertility rate in the United States.

Clark, an American demographer, believes that career considerations and income levels are the key factors that affect young couples' fertility willingness.

Clark believes that young people who are more enterprising in their careers are more likely to gather in big cities with high housing prices, many employment opportunities and developed business networks. These young people live in crowded rental spaces in big cities, their time and energy are occupied by the workplace, and their natural willingness to have children is low.

A study by the University of Maryland shows that the choice of "voting with your feet" also leads to the differentiation of fertility rates between urban and rural areas: young and wealthy people who stay in big cities generally have higher educational background and social status, and have lower fertility willingness; Young couples with family planning may choose to move to suburbs or rural areas with better natural environment, cheaper housing and larger living area, thus improving the fertility rate in these places.

Americans are worried that the fertility rate has not recovered.

As we all know, the fertility rate of 2. 1 is an ideal natural replacement rate, that is, every woman gives birth to 2. 1 child on average, so that the whole society can maintain a smooth alternation of population structure (regardless of immigration factors).

According to the American Social Questionnaire (GSC), when asked about the ideal family size, the average answer given by Americans is to have 2.6 children.

However, the ideal is full and realistic. The fertility rate of Americans who want to have more children dropped sharply after the financial crisis. What is even more worrying is that the economic recovery momentum of the United States in recent years has failed to boost the declining fertility rate.

In 2007, the fertility rate in the United States was 2. 12, which reached an ideal level. However, with the economic downturn, the fertility rate of American women has dropped to 20 10/0/0/0.93.

From 20 15, the American economy began to show a strong recovery trend, but the fertility rate continued to decline: in 20 15, the female fertility rate in the United States was1.84; 20 16 years, the figure is1.82; In 20 17, the fertility rate in the United States has dropped to 1.76, far below the ideal replacement rate.

According to NPR, according to the latest statistics from 2065438 to May 2008, the fertility rate in the United States has been slightly lower than 1.76, which has dropped to a new low in 30 years.

Lynn, an American economist, said that because social policies do not fully support American women's family planning, the decline in fertility rate will in turn damage the long-term prospects of the American economy.

Source: Netease News