(1) International economic risks are increasing.
In 2006, the transition period of China's entry into WTO ended. With the increasing momentum of the transfer of international manufacturing and even service industries to China, and China's efforts to implement the "going out" strategy, on the one hand, China will participate in the global division of labor system in a wider scope, in a wider field and at a deeper level; On the other hand, the dependence of China's economy on the world economy has further increased, which has brought many uncertain factors to China's economic development. At the same time, the negative transmission impact of international market and international economic and trade risks on China's economy has been increasing.
(2) Trade friction has entered a period of high incidence.
At present, China has entered a period of frequent trade frictions, with a large number of various trade frictions and increasingly diversified forms. Moreover, there is a trend of further increase. Trade friction gradually extends from the microeconomic level of products and enterprises to the macroeconomic policy, system and system level of our country; The field of friction extends from trade in goods to service; The object of trade friction has also spread from developed countries to developing countries; In the form of expression, in addition to the past "two opposites and one guarantee", it also spread to environmental protection, labor standards, intellectual property protection, technical barriers and so on. Therefore, from the future trend, international trade protection is likely to be more serious, the restrictions on China's export commodities will continue to increase, and China's trade friction will further increase.
(3) The disadvantages of extensive foreign trade growth mode are increasingly prominent.
Restricted by the low level of overall industrial development, China's export growth still belongs to a relatively extensive growth mode of quantitative expansion, and its disadvantages are mainly as follows: First, it weakens the stamina of sustainable development of foreign trade. Because many export products are at the low end of international division of labor, with low added value and short industrial chain, a large number of energy products are exported cheaply, which is not conducive to the upgrading of domestic industrial structure and the growth potential of foreign trade, and also increases the dependence on foreign countries, leaving a large number of economic, social and environmental problems at home. Second, it is difficult for resources to carry the foreign trade growth mode of pursuing scale expansion. Third, it ignores the high social cost. The export prices of some high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products only reflect the relationship between supply and demand, and do not reflect social costs such as resources, environment and safety. The fourth is to reduce China's economic safety factor. Although we are the third largest trading country in the world, we don't get much profit from foreign trade. At present, processing trade accounts for 55.3% of China's foreign trade, which has been significantly influenced by the world economy.
(4) The pressure of RMB appreciation has further increased.
The reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has a series of influences on foreign trade import and export. According to the general law, the time lag effect of exchange rate appreciation will gradually appear, and the result will inevitably be an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. However, due to the expectation that the exchange rate will be further adjusted, China's foreign trade enterprises will be more cautious in importing and avoid exchange rate losses.
(E) The potential risks of foreign trade exports have further increased.
First, it is influenced by the international market. The world economy is slowing down, the international market is relatively saturated, the demand in the international market is relatively reduced, and the prices of raw materials such as oil continue to rise, which increases the potential external risks of China's export products. Second, it is influenced by the rise of international trade protectionism. The third is influenced by the domestic market. Due to the increasingly obvious structural contradictions in China's economy, the overcapacity caused by the last round of economic expansion will begin to be released, and the high prices of domestic agricultural products, mineral products and other primary products will increase the production cost of manufacturing industry, which will make China's foreign trade enter a period of high growth. Moreover, promoting foreign trade export with export tax rebate policy will face the dilemma of increasing financial burden, which will have a certain adverse impact on China's foreign trade development and even the whole economic growth.
(vi) Deep cross-border mergers and acquisitions,
The Influence of "Intellectual Property Control" on China's Economic Security. In recent years, the "leaders" of some important industries in China have fallen into the "bag" of multinational companies, resulting in a serious loss of independent core technologies in some industries. Moreover, due to the imperfection of China's capital market and insufficient function of value discovery, multinational companies have controlled related industries in China at a small cost. Multinational companies seize the China market through mergers and acquisitions, and have monopolized many industries or are at the critical point of monopoly. At present, M&A of multinational companies has the following characteristics: First, it must be a holding company and a leading enterprise in the industry, and its future benefits must exceed 15%. The second is to control our leading enterprises through capital operation, so as to build a global industrial chain and monopolize the China market. The situation of multinational companies in M&A not only poses a serious threat to China enterprises, but also threatens the economic security of the country. At the same time, the "intellectual property control" of multinational corporations also poses a threat to China's economy. At present, foreign enterprises represented by multinational corporations are implementing the strategy of "intellectual property control" in China. These enterprises seek a lot of intellectual property protection to squeeze domestic intellectual property rights and industrial upgrading space.
Second, improve the level of opening up policy recommendations
(1) Improve the institutional environment to meet the requirements of opening up.
Further transform government functions. First, further reduce the government's intervention in the micro-activities of enterprises and give full play to the role of the main body of enterprise competition. The second is to strengthen the government's governance of the market environment, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, and create an open, fair, just and orderly market environment. The third is to administer according to law, strictly define and standardize the rights and obligations of the government, and mainly use economic and legal means to carry out macro-control. Fourth, enhance the government's awareness of service to market players, and strengthen the government's role in information provision, trade negotiation, organization and coordination, industrial relief and security.
Strengthen the construction of foreign-related economic laws and regulations in China. First, we will continue to promote the unified implementation of laws and regulations and manage foreign-related economic activities in accordance with various laws and regulations. The second is to speed up the formulation of relevant laws to promote opening up and ensure economic security, and regulate various foreign-related economic behaviors and activities through laws to reduce negative impacts. Third, actively participate in the formulation, revision and improvement of international economic and trade rules and strive for equal trade status for developing countries through various channels.
Continue to deepen the reform of the foreign trade system. First, further abolish and reform various unequal policies and regulations, guarantee the right of all kinds of enterprises to engage in foreign trade activities independently, unify the foreign trade access standards of all kinds of enterprises, and make all kinds of enterprises enjoy the right to operate independently and compete on an equal footing. The second is to implement the registration system of foreign trade business entities and actively guide the development of foreign trade agency system. Third, continue to deepen the reform of the foreign exchange system. Fourth, improve industrial policies such as export credit and financing to encourage exports, standardize the operation of import and export trade, and maintain normal market competition order. Fifth, actively promote the construction of foreign trade credit system, and establish credit supervision and disciplinary system for dishonesty.
Further strengthen the functions of trade associations. First, cultivate business associations as soon as possible and promote self-discipline of export enterprises through "regulations" and systems. The second is to provide foreign market, production, sales and price information for Chinese foreign trade enterprises through business associations. The third is to gradually establish a new mechanism to deal with trade frictions with enterprises and business associations as the main body, and strengthen the training of enterprises organized by business associations to deal with international trade frictions. The fourth is to speed up the formulation of the Regulations on Import and Export Chambers of Commerce, realize the legalization and standardized management of business associations, gradually promote the compulsory membership system of the industry, and enhance the representativeness and credibility of the industry.
(2) Further improve policies and measures to effectively avoid international risks.
Comprehensively study and formulate strategies to deal with trade frictions. First, on the basis of observing WTO rules, we should rationally use trade remedy measures such as anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures to protect and develop domestic industries. The second is to further establish a "multi-party linkage mechanism" to deal with anti-dumping, strengthen the dynamic monitoring and analysis of major export products, key export markets and key sensitive products, and give guidance to key sensitive products in particular. Third, pay close attention to the notification and evaluation mechanism of WTO, actively participate in it through legal channels, and actively face foreign technical barriers, so that China enterprises can change from passive defense to active rights protection. At the same time, we should also do a good job in anti-dumping in the domestic market and establish effective safeguard measures to protect the development of China's national industries.
Establish and improve the import and export early warning and monitoring mechanism. First, strengthen the tracking analysis of import and export trends. The second is to further improve the foreign trade operation monitoring system and the international balance of payments early warning mechanism. The third is to establish and improve the market information transmission system, and timely and accurately transmit the information of domestic and international market changes, medium and long-term market changes and various commodity demand information to enterprises.
Constructing domestic industrial security system. The first is to establish M&A information network system and analysis system. The second is to establish an examination and approval system for transnational mergers and acquisitions. The third is to speed up the research and formulation of relevant laws.
(C) Planning the opening-up strategy with a broader vision
We should actively guide industrial upgrading. In the future, we should seize the key link of structural adjustment and upgrading, promote the optimization of export commodity structure and the diversification of regional structure with industrial adjustment and upgrading, take the development of high-tech industries and product exports as the focus of China's foreign trade development strategy, and continuously enhance China's foreign trade export stamina. Further reduce the export of goods with low added value, high energy consumption and high pollution, so as to get rid of the vicious competition in low-end international trade and get out of the "immiserizing growth" cycle of export products.
We should make full use of international resources. China is a country with relatively unbalanced factor structure, rich in labor resources and short of capital, technology and some natural resources. Therefore, we need to plan the overall strategy of opening to the outside world from a strategic height, take the development and utilization of foreign resources as an important task of China's global economic strategy, and make better use of international scientific and technological resources, human resources, capital resources, natural resources and advanced management through "bringing in" and "going out" to provide a powerful force for the sustainable development of China's economy.
We should vigorously enhance the international competitiveness of opening up. First of all, we should formulate our global economic development strategy according to the international economic situation and our own comparative advantages. Second, efforts should be made to cultivate a number of new powerful multinational enterprises and well-known brands, especially to form a group of productive, scientific and export-oriented private enterprise groups with certain strength, and enhance their international competitiveness through all-round policy financial support provided by the Export-Import Bank; Third, speed up the R&D and investment of independent core technologies, and cultivate competitive advantages in more industrial fields. Only in this way can we be in an invincible position in the fierce international competition.