Statistics released by China show that the unemployment rate in China rose to 4.2% at the end of June. However, analysts pointed out that according to the statistics of China government, the actual unemployment rate in China is 10%. * The urban unemployment rate is actually as high as 10% * The latest statistics released by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security of China show that the unemployment rate in China reached 4.2% at the end of June, up 0.2% from six months ago. This unemployment rate only includes urban registered population, excluding rural unemployed population. This means that nearly 8 million people in China have no jobs. The goal of China government is to control the unemployment rate below 4.5% this year. Zhang said that the impact of the SARS epidemic made it difficult to achieve this goal. He said that the service industry in China used to be the main industry providing employment, but the SARS epidemic dealt a great blow to the service industry. Dr. Cheng Xiaonong, a scholar studying in the United States who has long been concerned about China's economic problems, said that China scholars and internal government statistics believe that the unemployment rate in China is actually 10%. If the unemployed population in rural China is added, the actual unemployment rate in China will be higher. Although China's economy grew by 8.2% in the first half of 2003 compared with the same period of last year, Cheng Xiaonong said that, unlike the west, such a high economic growth rate could not boost the employment rate. Cheng Xiaonong said: "In western countries, take the United States as an example, when the economic growth rate reaches 3%, the unemployment rate will fall instead of rising. When the economic growth rate is higher than 3%, employment will increase greatly. If the economic growth rate is lower than 3%, the unemployment rate will rise sharply. Then, in China, corresponding to the economic growth rate of 3% in the United States, the growth rate of China is 8%, which is only equivalent to 3% in the United States. Dr. Cheng Xiaonong said that China has maintained a high growth rate of 8% for six years, but this is only a critical point, and the unemployment rate and employment rate in China will not increase significantly. Now, with the attack of SARS epidemic, the unemployment rate will naturally rise sharply. In addition to the pressure brought by the outbreak of SARS on the job market, college graduates have also started to enter the job market this year, and thousands of laid-off workers from state-owned enterprises are looking for new jobs. China's Ministry of Labor and Social Security said last month that about 654.38+4 million urban unemployed people could not find jobs this year. Due to the SARS epidemic, the income growth of urban and rural residents slowed down, and 7 million to 8 million migrant workers left the city to return home. Dr. Cheng Xiaonong said that the problem of underemployment of farmers in China is serious, and some cities have strengthened their control over migrant workers entering cities to find jobs. He said that Shanghai, Beijing and other big cities have tightened restrictions on migrant workers to work in cities, and generally require employment certificates when recruiting workers. Migrant workers without employment certificates can't even work as restaurant chefs, but can only do jobs that city people like cleaners and construction workers don't want to do. * Structural disadvantages can't be solved * According to a report of the State Council Development Research Center, China's labor supply has reached its peak. This year, the labor force in China is 2 million more than last year. The report predicts that the employment pressure and the economic difficulties of the urban and rural poor will be the main topics of China's future economic development. Xia Ming, a professor of political science at City University of new york, said that it may be extremely difficult and almost impossible to solve the employment problem in China: Xia Ming said: "First of all, this is a global problem. There are basically no countries, I am talking about developing countries. No country can solve the problem of labor surplus. " Secondly, Xia Ming said that the unemployment problem in China is different from that in the United States and other developed countries, and it is not caused by the economic crisis. The current high unemployment rate in the United States is cyclical. With the economic recovery, the unemployment rate in the United States will soon drop sharply, and the demand for overseas workers will reappear. Professor Xia Ming believes that the unemployment problem in China is not cyclical, but structural, which is caused by the transformation of social structure in China. With the development of market economy, a steady stream of surplus agricultural population will leave the land and enter the city. Experts estimate that there are at least 200 million people in this group, which will bring great employment pressure to China.