In the "Notice on Further Improving the Pilot Work of Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs) in Infrastructure" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on July 2 (referred to as Document No.958), the pilot scope of infrastructure REITs was expanded to clean energy, affordable rental housing and other infrastructure areas. At the same time, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing, which clarified the basic system and supporting policies of affordable rental housing.
The report believes that developing affordable rental housing REITs, revitalizing existing assets, promoting incremental investment, forming a closed-loop capital chain of affordable rental housing industry, and realizing a benign internal cycle of investment and financing can find a new way to solve the rental housing supply in big cities.
At the same time, as an equity-based mature asset holding platform, affordable rental housing REITs can provide an effective exit channel for affordable rental housing enterprises, so that enterprises can form a closed loop of project development and exit without accumulating debts, form a new model of "development, operation and revitalization" for sustainable development, increase the direct financing ratio of rental housing industry, and reduce the leverage ratio and financial risks of rental housing industry; You can also use the raised funds to purchase vacant or inefficient qualified stock assets and transform them into affordable rental houses.
Effective ways to solve the housing difficulties of new citizens and young people in big cities
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outline of the long-term goal in 2035 clearly put forward: "Accelerate the cultivation and development of the housing rental market, effectively revitalize the existing housing resources, and vigorously and orderly expand the supply of urban rental housing".
According to the report, the business model of China rental housing industry has been formed. At present, the first batch of infrastructure REITs pilots have been issued and listed. Projects include both property rights projects and franchise projects. The total issuance scale is about 31400 million yuan, and the incremental funds returned exceed1700 million yuan. Among them, the asset-oriented model has some problems, such as the historical formation of rental housing assets is difficult to revitalize, the pressure of rental housing investment in big cities with large population inflows is high, and the asset exit channel lacks the ability to inhibit industry investment.
The REITs research group of Peking University Guanghua believes that the development of affordable rental housing REITs is an effective way to solve the housing difficulties of new citizens and young people in big cities, an important measure to promote the stable and healthy development of the housing rental market, and a realistic need to improve the structure and service level of the housing rental market.
China's rental housing market is lagging behind, and the rental population accounts for about 1 1%, far below the level of 30% in developed countries. Housing prices in big cities are high, and low-and middle-income groups in cities can't afford to buy houses, and they can't rent them well. Middle-income groups bear heavy mortgage expenses. Sampling survey shows that among the 65,438+35 million migrant workers in 20 19, the proportion of buying houses is 19.5%, and among the more than 52 million migrant workers in 10, the proportion of buying commercial houses is 25 1%, and the proportion of enjoying * * * property houses and affordable housing is.
The process of urbanization in China is still in the stage of rapid development. According to the prediction of Guanghua Thought Power, a think tank platform of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, by 2035, the urbanization rate of China will be around 75%, and nearly 200 million agricultural migrants will enter the city.
Internationally, real estate investment trust funds are important holders of rental housing. In the United States, for example, institutions hold about 50% of the rental housing, and REITs are the most important part.
The development and expansion of affordable rental housing REITs will help to improve the current market structure of China, which is mainly based on individual supply, and promote the development of housing rental market to scale, institutionalization and specialization. Providing affordable rental housing for tenants by building new affordable rental housing or transforming existing real estate is conducive to solving the problem of unbalanced supply structure in the current housing rental market; At the same time, by improving the leasing service level, stabilizing the leasing relationship, standardizing the main behavior of the leasing market and protecting the rights and interests of the lessee, it will help solve the problems of poor leasing quality, high leasing price and unstable leasing period.
The research group of REITs of Peking University Guanghua found that the enterprises where the pilot projects are located generally have the characteristics of "five haves": "the need to revitalize existing assets, the need for new investment and development, the need for asset structure optimization, the need for stable cash flow, and the team with reform and innovation", which has high enthusiasm and creativity for promoting the infrastructure REITs pilot. Local governments and enterprises have more expectations for expanding the pilot project and taking it from point to area.
Under the asset-oriented model, the government "holds a golden rice bowl for food"
Generally speaking, the business model of China rental housing industry has taken shape. According to the degree of investment in assets, it can be generally divided into three modes: heavy assets, medium assets and light assets.
The REITs research group of Peking University Guanghua focused on the asset-oriented model, including both public rental housing and low-rent housing mainly operated by local governments and state-owned enterprises. It also includes the indemnificatory rental housing built by collective construction land in recent years and the indemnificatory rental housing built on state-owned land specially used for rental housing construction (such as R4 land in Shanghai).
Asset-based rental housing projects usually adopt centralized management, with relatively high service level and relatively stable rental relationship, which is conducive to the cultivation and development of institutionalized and professional rental enterprises. However, the initial investment pressure of heavy assets projects is high, the payback period is long, and the willingness and ability of government and social capital to continue to invest are limited.
Judging from the survey results, the REITs research group of Peking University Guanghua summarized three problems: the rental housing assets formed in history are difficult to revitalize, the investment pressure of rental housing in big cities with large population inflows is great, and the lack of asset exit channels inhibits the investment ability of the industry.
The research group explained the first two questions with the situations in Chongqing and Suzhou respectively.
Taking Chongqing as an example, there are 564,000 sets of public rental housing (including low-rent housing) in the city, and 540,000 sets have been allocated, benefiting about 1.4 million people; There are 390,500 sets of public rental housing in the central city, and 370,000 sets have been allocated, benefiting about 970,000 people; The total investment in the construction of public rental housing in the central city alone reached 89 billion yuan, mainly from central subsidies, municipal financial funds and bank loans. By the end of 2020, the balance of all loans is only 654.38+0 billion yuan, and the net assets of the project, calculated according to the book cost, are all deposited on the project, so it is difficult to make use of the existing means to revitalize it, which actually causes the local government to "beg for food."
Take Suzhou as an example. In 2020, the floating population in the city is about 3.52 million, and most of them solve the housing problem by renting houses. There are about 1, 7 1, 000 sets of rental housing in the city, and the supply of rental housing is in short supply. In the next three years, Suzhou must raise 65,438+10,000 sets of affordable rental housing through the construction of talent housing and unit dormitories. In Shanghai, where the absolute level of housing prices is higher and the proportion of floating population is higher, the rental population is nearly 8.8 million, and there is a huge mismatch and gap between supply and demand of rental housing of 65.438+0.9 billion square meters. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, it is planned to add 400,000 sets of rental housing, which puts great pressure on financial funds and social capital investment.
In addition, the financing methods of renting houses under the asset-heavy mode are relatively rich, but mainly debt financing, including bank loans, various bonds, insurance claims plans, ABS and other products. With the new concept of "long-term lease means long-term residence, and long-term residence means settling down", China Construction Bank implements the "housing leasing strategy", comprehensively utilizes the advantages of finance, science and technology, credit, etc., innovates the financial services of leasing housing, promotes the establishment of leasing industry alliance and the construction of long-term leasing market mechanism, and promotes the investment and financing development of leasing housing industry. However, on the whole, due to the lack of front-end investment of equity funds and back-end exit channels of stock assets, the self-investment and financing ability of the rental housing industry has been suppressed.
Rental housing funds should be separated from real estate development funds.
The research group quoted the data of research institutions as saying that from 20 1.7 to 20 1.9, the total rental housing area in China was 641.200 million, 6.733 billion and 7.07 billion square meters respectively. In 2020, the number of people serving the housing rental market in China has exceeded 200 million. Among them, public rental housing, low-rent housing and various types of heavy-asset security rental housing developed in recent years provide centralized management services and can be revitalized through REITs. In the past two years, * * * has successfully issued 18 single-rent REITs, with a total issuance scale of 215.56 million yuan, and the issuance interest rate is generally 4.5%-5%. After market inquiry, the investors of the first batch of property rights projects in infrastructure REITs demand a rate of return of 4%-5%.
Take a collective construction land rental housing project in Beijing as an example, with a total construction area of 300,000 square meters and an estimated total investment of 4.363 billion yuan. REITs will be issued with rented houses owned by village collectives, with a conservative yield of 4.8%. Based on the calculation of public rental housing in Guangzhou, the average standard rent is about 23 yuan/m2/month, and the rental yield is about 5.5% based on the investment cost of 5,000 yuan/m2.
"The above data shows that the yield of eligible rental housing projects meets the basic financial conditions for issuing REITs." The research team said. 18 in June, the the State Council executive meeting decided to accelerate the development of affordable rental housing policy, and made it clear that rental enterprises should pay value-added tax at the reduced rate of 1.5% to individuals and large rental enterprises, and enterprises and institutions should pay value-added tax at the reduced rate of 4% to individuals and large rental enterprises. According to preliminary calculation, the above tax policy will increase the yield of REITs products by at least one percentage point.
Based on this, the REITs research group of Peking University Guanghua proposed that the assets of affordable rental housing can be included in the basic assets of infrastructure public offering REITs, and priority should be given to municipalities directly under the central government, big cities with net population inflow, and all kinds of eligible affordable rental housing assets to carry out pilot projects to prevent the raised funds from flowing into the real estate development field.
The research group believes that this is conducive to the cutting of affordable rental housing assets and real estate, and prevents the market from misreading real estate regulation policies and public opinion speculation. However, the demand for renting houses is mainly concentrated in municipalities directly under the central government and big cities with net population inflow. The total size of the national key 10 city rental market accounts for about 50% of the national market size.
For the rental housing with heavy asset model, the research group suggests establishing a multi-supply system of land. First, we will continue to expand the land supply of the aforementioned allocated land and other affordable rental housing projects, and the relevant land supply plans will be listed separately. Second, according to local conditions, enterprises and institutions are allowed to use their own idle land to build rental housing and supply their employees and eligible security objects around them. The third is to change the situation that some affordable housing land is too remote and inconvenient in transportation in the past, pay attention to the balanced demand between occupation and residence, and ensure that the supply of rental housing matches the actual demand.
At the same time, establish and improve relevant standards and systems, strengthen departmental coordination, improve the efficiency of government approval in REITs restructuring, and completely isolate the use of rental housing funds from real estate development funds to ensure that the funds returned from issuing REITs for rental housing are mainly invested in rental housing construction and operation.