According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, Time Weekly reporter found that as of February 9, 65438, more than 100 cities made 154 policy adjustments to the real estate market in the fourth quarter. The most striking *** 13 places with policies directed at the property market are Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Heilongjiang, Maanshan, Shanghai Lingang, Nanjing, Jiangxi and Ningbo.

From the policy point of view, in the 13 area, Shenzhen and Chengdu directly adjusted their housing purchase policies, among which Shenzhen Qianhai introduced preferential housing purchase for Hong Kong and Macao residents and families, Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone unfrozen commercial housing transactions, and Chengdu directly lifted the restrictions on housing purchase for residents in the High-tech South Zone; Heilongjiang, Ma 'anshan, Jiangxi and Ningbo have put forward the audit of land acquisition funds, standardized the publicity and pre-sale notification of commercial housing sales information, and issued regulations on the upgrading of pre-sale funds of commercial housing and the supervision of transaction funds of stock houses from the perspective of standardizing the market. More cities choose to open the "window" of buying houses by attracting talents, including Foshan, Shanghai Lingang and Nanjing Liuhe.

"The loosening of the property market in hot cities has not actually released too many new signals, but more of a fine-tuning." Feng Ke, director of Peking University Financial and Industrial Development Research Center, pointed out that "all localities are facing the pressure of steady growth. Properly loosening the property market will help maintain confidence in the real estate market and help developers form relatively good expectations. "

There is a difference between "loose in the south and tight in the north"

On February 7, 65438, Shenzhen Qianhai issued a relevant plan, proposing that Hong Kong and Macao residents and families should enjoy the same treatment as Shenzhen household registration when buying houses in Qianhai Cooperation Zone.

This is the third fine-tuning of Shenzhen property market policy this month. In addition, in Greater Bay Area and Foshan, the property market policy has been adjusted frequently.

"Guangzhou and Shenzhen should implement the responsibility of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a core city, promote regional development, and Shenzhen should also implement the construction of a socialist demonstration zone, all of which need the support of economic and financial income." Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told Times Weekly that "Foshan's adjustment is to attract talents and provide talent support for local industrial development."

Far away from the rooster territory, Heilongjiang unexpectedly tightened the property market policy.

165438+1On October 29th, six departments, including the Housing and Construction Department of Heilongjiang Province, the Natural Resources Department of Heilongjiang Province and the Local Financial Supervision Administration of Heilongjiang Province, jointly issued a notice prohibiting real estate enterprises from taking land by loan.

Relevant personnel of the Housing and Construction Department of Heilongjiang Province told the Times Weekly reporter that the policy is mainly to regulate the chaos in the local property market, including the high leverage ratio of real estate development and the "unfinished" problem.

"The difference between North and South is easy to understand." Feng Ke pointed out, "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a population inflow area, and besides investment demand, there is also a great demand for self-occupation. On the contrary, Northeast China is a population outflow area, and the existing commercial housing has even formed a serious backlog. Of course, the government is not allowed to use new loans to form new non-performing assets, which will aggravate market imbalance and market backlog. "

On the whole, the property market policy adjustment in the fourth quarter was mainly "loose".

Shenzhen, Chengdu, Foshan, Shanghai Lingang and Nanjing Liuhe all directly loosened or made horizontal breakthroughs in buying houses. Increasing the loanable amount of provident fund in Zhengzhou is also conducive to encouraging the market. The standardized market behaviors in Heilongjiang, Maanshan, Jiangxi and Ningbo are neutral, stable and reliable. For example, Maanshan proposed that "the sales price of commercial housing should not be lower than the filing price 10%".

"This round of property market policy has bottomed out." Zou, head of the housing big data project of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Times Weekly that "under the tone of' policy for the city', local governments have the basis to adjust the property market policy. The current property market policy has bottomed out and it is impossible to be stricter. "

More cities are loose or on the road.

The adjustment of 154 real estate policy in more than 0/00 cities in the fourth quarter indicates that "a new round of intensive relaxation is on the way". When the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference held on February 6th, 65438 set the tone for economic work in 2020, it did not mention real estate, and even gave the market room for imagination.

"In the first 65,438+00 months of 2065,438+09, many important economic indicators such as consumption, passenger cars and industrial profits were weak, but the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was better than any year from 2065,438+05 to 2065,438+08, which contributed to steady growth." Guosen Securities analysis said.

Li Qilin, chief economist of Lianxun (Yuekai) Securities and dean of the research institute, said: "It is expected that steady growth will be promoted around the following lines next year: First, the steady growth of infrastructure will be overweight; Second, the tone of "staying in the house without speculation" remains unchanged, but under the framework of "policy for the city", more cities will relax in disguise in 2020, and the financing supervision of housing enterprises will not be further tightened; Third, compared with 20 19, consumption will play a more important role in steady growth in 2020, and the industrial chain completed by automobiles and real estate is two major priorities. "

Ding Jiangang, dean of Zhejiang Media Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out: "It is normal for the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC to set the tone for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and not to mention real estate. We must pay more attention to the Central Economic Work Conference and make the latest statements on macroeconomic policies, financial and monetary policies, and real estate. "

The pressure of steady growth is not small.

From a macroeconomic point of view, the GDP growth target set at the beginning of this year is 6%-6.5%. At present, the GDP growth rate of China in the first three quarters is 6.2% year-on-year, and the mainstream view of the market is that the GDP growth rate in 20 19 is about 6. 16%. From a financial point of view, due to the impact of tax reduction and fee reduction, local fiscal revenue has decreased significantly this year.

Specific to the real estate market, the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in 65438+ 10 shows that the average selling price of second-hand houses in 35 of the 70 cities decreased month on month. Judging from the actual market situation, it is normal for second-hand houses in weather vane cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to reduce their prices by 200,000 yuan. In addition, indicators such as land, investment and new construction of commercial housing have also declined to varying degrees.

This policy has bottomed out. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told Times Weekly that it is expected that all localities will adjust their real estate market policies from the perspectives of talent purchase, first home loan support and provident fund. "This policy will no longer be divided into city levels, but generally depends on the local economic situation and the real estate market."

However, experts also reminded that the fine-tuning of real estate policies needs to be cautious.

"Now people are more and more aware that real estate is a double-edged sword, and more and more people see its negative effects. Therefore, even if it is to be adjusted, it will be more cautious and will not be stimulated on a large scale. " Yang He, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Taxation of the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the Times Weekly reporter.

In addition, "policy for the city" is both a power and a responsibility. "Whether there is pressure on the local property market and whether it needs to be adjusted is actually decided by the local government. If the local property market is under great downward pressure, it is understandable for local governments to intervene. However, if the place is over-stimulated, the property market will rebound significantly and will be held accountable. " Li said to him.