The background of rising house prices in China
In the last article, I mentioned the concepts of uptown and uptown (WeChat official account's "Xiao Yi in the property market" and "Why doesn't Hefei relax the purchase restriction?" What is the logic behind it? 》)。 After the purchase restriction was relaxed, 20 15, as the largest upper-tier city, first-tier cities Shanghai and Shenzhen, took the lead in rising house prices. Since then, 20 16, second-tier cities, hot spots in second-tier cities, set off a second wave, and house prices began to rise. Then this year, we saw that the third-and fourth-tier cities in the next city also achieved a large increase.
For this phenomenon, Mr. Yang Hongxu explained it as the rotation of plates. As far as China's current national conditions are concerned, I think it makes sense. China's real estate market has always been a chess game, and no city can exist in isolation. High housing prices in first-tier cities lead to serious overvaluation of asset prices, which will inevitably reduce its investment value, and capital will turn to second-tier cities with higher cost performance to find opportunities.
When hot cities restricted purchases, capital turned to lower third-and fourth-tier cities for unlimited purchases under panic and inertia thinking. In this way, the funds were decentralized step by step, and the inventory was finally completed. Every link has a game of all parties, which seems illogical, but careful analysis is inevitable.
Before the termination of the subscription in 20 14 years, China's M2 has maintained a high growth rate of 12% for many years. Most of these surplus currencies flowed to entities, but not many of them entered the real estate. However, in recent years, the real economy has continued to deteriorate, and the GDP growth rate has declined year after year, reaching the lowest value in 30 years.
Since last year, we have heard the most words, called asset shortage. I think it can also be called asset panic for ordinary people. The return of the real economy is very low, and many entrepreneurs are reluctant to invest their money in reproduction. For a time, there are more and more funds in the market, and the price of funds is getting lower and lower. Everyone can't find a suitable investment channel. However, the money in hand is depreciating more and more, and everyone is panicked.
With the continuous relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, the central bank has continuously cut interest rates and reduced RRR, releasing a lot of liquidity. At the end of 20 15, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the strategy of "destocking". The superposition of all these factors eventually led to the outbreak of housing prices in hot cities since 20 16.
Upper and lower city house price ratio
We know that first-tier cities, because of their massive high-quality resources, attract a lot of funds and naturally push up housing prices. If first-tier cities don't have purchase restriction policies and household registration barriers, house prices may be 1 times higher than now. Judging from the largest purchase restriction and the strictest household registration system in North China, the house price is still more than 2-3 times that of most second-tier cities, which shows the attractiveness of domestic first-tier cities.
We know that the population is concentrated in resource-based policy cities. The more resources, the better the quality. The higher the population concentration, the higher your house price. I analyzed it in my previous article (WeChat official account "Which city is Hefei's housing price rise closely?" ), in recent ten years, the housing price ratio between Shanghai and Nanjing Hefei has basically remained at 10: 5: 3. In other words, the housing price in Hefei has always been 60% of that in Nanjing, and Nanjing has always been 50% of that in Shanghai.
Why is the price in Nanjing only half that in Shanghai? This is that the urban status of uptown and downtown is different, and the policy status you enjoy in the development of the whole country is also different. Once the status of the upper city and the lower city is determined, their house price ratio is roughly determined, and the only factor that affects these house price ratios may be the development policy given to you by the state. Just like Shenzhen, if there is no reform and opening up, it may still be a small village and a good prefecture-level city at most.
Hefei has developed rapidly in recent ten years, giving more policies. Its status as a city is increasing day by day, and the gap between housing prices and many upper-level cities is narrowing. Yang Hongxu predicted that the house price in Hefei will reach 80% of that in Nanjing in the future, which may be an optimistic data. I don't know how long it will take, but I think the price gap between Hefei and Nanjing will gradually narrow. After the first-tier cities control the population size, hot second-tier cities will become key inflow areas. I even think that in the next 10 year, hot second-tier cities will narrow the gap with first-tier cities.
In fact, Hefei is widening the gap with other third-and fourth-tier cities in the province (WeChat official account "Why is the gap between Hefei housing prices and other cities in Anhui getting bigger and bigger?" 》)。 10 years ago, the housing price of Hefei was basically the same as that of the following cities, only 20% lower than the second place, and now it has reached more than 50%. This is related to the determination of Anhui Province to make Hefei bigger and stronger. The excessive concentration of resource policy makes Hefei change with each passing day, and the status of the city rises rapidly. In the next five years, I think the gap between Hefei and the second place in the province is likely to reach more than twice.
The leading effect of rising house prices
One of the most direct manifestations of going up and down the city is the leading effect. The so-called driving effect is that the lower cities can benefit only after the upper cities have realized the price increase. After Shanghai's housing prices rose, Nanjing and Hefei, the four little dragons in the Yangtze River Delta, also rose accordingly. After Hefei's housing prices rose, the surrounding third-and fourth-tier cities followed suit.
Why is this happening? This is determined by the status of the city I mentioned earlier. The price in Nanjing is half that in Shanghai. If Shanghai doesn't raise prices, Nanjing will never make a difference. By the same token, Hefei does not raise prices, and it is difficult for the following third-and fourth-tier cities to have a big increase. The house price in Nanjing can't rise to the level of Shanghai, and the house price in Wuhu can't be the same as that in Hefei. In the eyes of investors, Nanjing's housing price is only half that of Shanghai, and Wuhu's housing price will never catch up with Hefei.
This truth can also be deduced to Hefei and three counties. As long as the housing price in Hefei city is suppressed by the purchase restriction, the three counties will toss to the sky and cannot exceed the housing price in the city. Therefore, we can see that due to the unlimited purchase, the current housing prices in some areas of the three counties even exceed the warning line of Hefei City. In terms of investment value, it is far less than that in Hefei (WeChat official account "three counties in Hefei buy a house", or do you save enough social security 1 year to buy a house in the urban area? 》)。
We know that investment is profitable. If the price does not rise, there will be no investment income, which is what we call "buy up and not buy down". The main body of our national inventory is in third-and fourth-tier cities. If house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities don't rise, no one will pay the bill. But if housing prices in second-tier cities do not rise, how can housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities rise? In a sense, the success of the destocking strategy is directly related to whether the housing prices in first-tier cities can rise sharply.
First-tier cities are leading real estate enterprises in China. To open the inventory situation of China real estate, we must first open the leading cities. In my article in March last year, I predicted that if the purchase restriction policy of hot cities is not tightened, it will be difficult for hot money to reach third-and fourth-tier cities. So we saw that in June last year, 5438+ 10, hot cities concentrated on introducing purchase restriction measures after the house prices rose sharply. Of course, the purchase restriction in first-tier cities is tightened earlier than that in hot cities.
The introduction of purchase restriction has stopped the pace of rising house prices in hot cities, but at the same time it has also seen the enthusiasm of investors being ignited. After the housing prices in the upper cities rose, the housing prices in the lower cities were much lower than those in the upper cities. Coupled with the low capital cost and shortage of assets I mentioned before, investors only need to get on the bus in the next city. This is in the middle of the national destocking policy, and the short-term supply is in short supply, which leads to the rise of housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities.
The greater the outflow of population, the greater the support for housing prices.
My previous article analyzed (WeChat official account, "How to judge the investment value of real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities around Hefei? ), the housing prices in several cities with large population outflows in Anhui are surprisingly good, which seems to be somewhat inconsistent with the logic in our impression. As we all know, the biggest obstacle to the free flow of population in China at present is the household registration system, because household registration binds the most important welfare of China people-education.
We know that China people attach great importance to education, and the abnormal college entrance examination system has created the status quo of different examination papers in different provinces of the same country, especially in economically developed areas and the mainland. There are more than 7 million people in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Even if compulsory education can go to school locally, most children will go back to their hometown for the college entrance examination. But we know that the college entrance examination papers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are different from those in Anhui, and the teaching content in compulsory education will be different.
This means that migrant workers in Anhui either choose to settle down locally and let their children go to school in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, or go back to their hometown for college entrance examination. But the fact is, most migrant workers have not stayed in these areas, because their jobs are unstable, housing prices are too high, welfare benefits are not guaranteed, and local relations are not here. So we see so many left-behind children and so many people who go back to their hometowns to buy houses.
From 20 13, the floating population in Anhui province began to return, and nearly 400 thousand people returned in four years. Prior to this, the annual net outflow of Anhui was-200,000. This shows that in recent years, coastal industries are shifting inland, and more and more migrant workers are returning to Anhui to find jobs. There are many more employment opportunities in Anhui than before.
In some populous cities or counties, the urbanization rate is very low, and the rural population has a strong desire to enter the city. After these rural people go out to work, many are willing to go home to buy a house, which supports the local real estate market. High-income people choose prefecture-level cities, low-income people choose county towns, and some high-income people may buy houses directly in Hefei, the provincial capital (WeChat official account "After the purchase restriction, buy houses in Hefei three counties or buy houses in Anhui third line?"
Therefore, most Anhui people who work in developed areas are still willing to go back to their hometowns to buy houses with wages relatively higher than those in their hometowns, which is the reason for the sharp rise in housing prices in areas with population outflow. Anhui is a province with a large population outflow, but Hefei's housing prices are more supportive. However, I am not very optimistic about housing prices in cities with a small population outflow in southern Anhui. (Search WeChat official account "",more truth about Hefei property market will appear in front of you)
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