(1) The elderly population is huge and developing rapidly.
According to the report of the Bureau of Statistics, firstly, in terms of quantity, in 2020, the population aged 60 and above will account for 18.7% of the national population, nearly twice the standard for measuring population aging, and the number will reach 264 million, exceeding the population aged 0- 14. Secondly, from the perspective of development speed, the proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and above in China rose from 7.32% in the first census to 18.7% in the seventh census. The time taken for the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above to rise from 7% to 14% can reflect the development speed of a country's population aging.
In 2000, the proportion of people aged 65 and above in China was 7%, and it has reached 13.5% in 20 years, and it is not far from reaching 14%. However, according to statistics, it took most developed countries more than 45 years to reach this level. However, China is aging much faster than other countries. On the one hand, the large and rapid development of the elderly population is related to the family planning policy implemented in China. On the other hand, due to the breakthrough development of economy, science and technology and medical care in China in recent years, the medical care of our people has been guaranteed and the living standard has been improved.
(B) with the characteristics of "getting old before getting rich"
China's GDP per capita in 2000 was 939 dollars, so China entered the aging stage. When Japan entered the aging stage, the per capita GDP was $2,026, and this time was 1970. By 2000, Japan's per capita GDP was as high as $38,960, while Japan's per capita GDP was 40 times that of China.
South Korea entered the aging stage in 2000, and its per capita GDP was 12 16 1 USD. Singapore also entered the aging stage in 2000, with a per capita GDP of $23,847. It can be seen that the aging stage of developed countries is accompanied by rapid economic development and has sufficient economic strength to deal with the problem of population aging. However, China's economic development level can't keep up with the aging process. This situation is caused by the decrease of the demographic dividend and the decrease of the growth rate of the working population in China, which will inevitably affect all levels of the economy and society.
(C) uneven development in areas with aging population
On the whole, it can be found that among the provinces (cities) with serious population aging, there are more in the eastern region and less in the western region. 3 1 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, except Tibet, the proportion of people aged 60 and over in other regions is greater than 10%. Judging from the ranking of 3 1 provinces and cities, the three eastern provinces are all in the forefront, among which Liaoning Province is the most serious, accounting for 25.72%, which is higher than Tibet's 17.2%. The proportions of Heilongjiang and Jilin ranked third and fourth, accounting for 23.22% and 23.06% respectively.
On the one hand, the reason for the high degree of aging in the three northeastern provinces is that the economic downturn in Northeast China has led to young people going out for employment and population outflow. On the other hand, due to the strict implementation of family planning in Northeast China, people's concept of fertility has changed, so the overall birth rate is low. The proportion of the elderly population in western regions such as Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet is 12. 14%, 1 1.28% and 8.52%, respectively, which is relatively low.
In addition, in recent years, there are many migrants in Guangdong Province, so the degree of aging is low, and its proportion is 12.35%. Therefore, the aging situation in various provinces and cities is closely related to the current local economic situation and the strict implementation of family planning policies.
Second, the current situation of household financial assets allocation
(1) Total financial assets of some families in China.
The main analysis of family financial assets is as follows: cash held by residents, savings deposits of residents, stocks, bonds and foreign currency deposits. Since the China Financial Yearbook in 20021year was not published, while the foreign currency savings data in the China Financial Yearbook in 2020 was recorded in 20 19, this paper analyzes the financial assets held by China families from 1995 to 20 19.
(1) Residents hold cash. It is the currency in circulation held by residents at the end of the period, and the data comes from China Statistical Yearbook. A survey by the People's Bank of China shows that the cash held by residents accounts for 76%-80% of the cash in circulation. According to 80% cash, calculate the household holdings, that is, M0*80%. The total cash held by residents showed an increasing trend year by year from 1995 to 20 19, from 630.824 billion yuan in 1995 to 6654.38+0.75160 billion yuan in 20 19.
(2) Residents' savings deposits. Refers to the balance of personal RMB deposits at the end of the year, and the data information comes from China Statistical Yearbook. From 1995 to 20 19, household savings has been the financial asset with the highest listed amount, and it has also shown an increasing trend year by year in the past 25 years.
(3) stocks. The data comes from China Statistical Yearbook, and based on Liu Ying's method, 60% of the market value of A-share circulation at the end of each year is counted. The total amount of stocks shows the characteristics of fluctuation, and 1995-2000 shows an upward trend year by year, and then fluctuates greatly. In 20 19, the total amount reached the peak of 28,929.48 billion yuan in 25 years.
(4) national debt. This part of the data comes from China Fiscal Yearbook and Statistics published by the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC). Because the proportion of corporate bonds and corporate bonds is small and difficult to estimate, we only use some scholars' methods to measure the national debt held by residents, and estimate the proportion held by residents with 80% of the year-end balance of national debt. The total amount of national debt is basically increasing year by year. The estimated value of national debt held by households in 1995 was 264.024 billion yuan, reaching1344.3043 billion yuan in 20 19.
(5) foreign currency savings. The data comes from China Financial Yearbook, and the balance of foreign currency savings at the end of the year is converted into RMB for statistics. Affected by the exchange reform, the foreign currency savings of Chinese residents fluctuated greatly, reaching a peak of 804.892 billion yuan in 20 16, showing a downward trend in the past three years.
It can be seen that the total family financial assets increased from 4021.82 billion yuan in195 to1.31.21.935 billion yuan in 20 19 years, an increase of 25 years. Further analysis of various financial assets in 20 19 shows that the savings deposits of residents are 865,438+0,965,438+0,665,438+0.80 billion yuan, and the rankings of other financial assets will change with time. However, savings deposits have been the highest financial asset held by residents for many years.
Followed by stocks, the amount held by families is 28,929.48 billion yuan. The third is the national debt. The total national debt held by households is 1.3443043 billion yuan. Followed by cash and foreign currency deposits held by residents.
(B) the characteristics and causes of family financial assets in China.
(1) The total amount of family financial assets in China is increasing year by year.
With the economic growth, the income of residents increases, which not only drives the increase of cash and savings deposits held by households, but also increases the total amount of risk financial assets held by households. In the past 25 years, the total amount of household financial assets held by residents has increased from10.82 billion yuan in 1995 to10.3/0.2193.5 billion yuan in 20 19, an increase.
(2) The proportion of cash held by residents continues to decline.
In195, the cash on hand of residents accounted for 65,438+05.69% of the total financial assets listed in the table, and it decreased to 4.765,438+0% in 20 19. Compared with other financial assets, the proportion of cash in hand dropped from the second to the fourth, ranking behind stocks and national debt. This is because the banking system is constantly improving, deposits and withdrawals are extremely convenient, business outlets and self-service ATMs are all over the region, and the characteristics of safety and convenience make residents put more cash in the bank.
Moreover, in recent years, with the rapid development of internet finance, the integration of traditional financial institutions and internet enterprises has changed the modes of residents' financial management, payment and shopping. Through the Internet, services such as fast transfer, cash withdrawal and recharge can be realized. Therefore, due to the demand of online operation, people will also deposit their cash in bank cards, WeChat and Alipay to meet the demand of online services at any time.
(3) The proportion of residents' savings deposits remains above 50%.
In the allocation of family financial assets in China, savings deposits have always been the most important type of family financial assets. When the securities market is active, residents will invest more assets in risky financial assets, thus reducing the share of savings deposits. However, when the market is negative, residents will reduce their investment in high-risk financial assets and increase their savings deposits. Therefore, the activity of the securities market is closely related to residents' savings deposits. Savings deposits have always played an important role in the allocation of financial assets for reasons such as education, medical care, children's marriage, filial piety to parents, and buying a house for the elderly.
(4) The proportion of financial assets such as stocks and bonds has increased.
From 1995 to 200 1 year, the proportion of stocks and treasury bonds in residents' financial assets ranked behind the cash held by residents, but in 2002, the proportion of treasury bonds surpassed that of residents, ranking second among all financial assets, and in 2007, the proportion of stocks also exceeded that of cash, and the proportion of stocks continued to increase from 2009.
This shows that China residents' awareness of financial management has increased, and financial assets such as stocks, bonds, funds and wealth management products have been accepted by residents. However, China residents still tend to save money, and their family securities assets are far less than their savings.
Third, summary.
From the macro level, this paper vertically tracks the aging situation and the allocation of family financial assets in China, and analyzes the current situation in China. First of all, in terms of population aging, from the first census to the seventh census, the proportion of elderly people aged 60 and over in China has steadily increased, reaching 18.7% in 2020, far exceeding the international standard 10%. China has a huge base of aging population and a very fast population growth rate.
There is a social phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich"; The regional economic development is unbalanced, with more provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) in the central and eastern regions and fewer in the western regions. Secondly, vertically observing the changes in the allocation of household financial assets in China, we can find that residents' investment types are more diversified, and the investment amount of each financial asset is increasing year by year, which has changed the original single investment mode, but the phenomenon that has not changed is the importance of household savings in household financial assets. In recent years, the total amount of risk financial assets has increased, but compared with savings deposits, its holdings are less. Research on the Allocation of Financial Assets of Aged Families
Abstract: Under the background of population aging, the problem of aging has penetrated into all aspects of society, and the influence of population aging on the allocation of family financial assets is one of its influences in the financial field. Based on the report of China Family Finance Research and Investigation Center and referring to the research results of many scholars in this field, this paper analyzes the present situation of family financial asset allocation and the influence of population aging on family financial asset allocation, and puts forward corresponding measures on how to improve family financial asset allocation to deal with the problem of population aging from three levels: government, financial enterprises and families.
Keywords: population aging; Family; Financial assets; deploy
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I. Introduction
(1) Research background. According to United Nations standards, an aging society refers to a region or country where the population over 65 accounts for 7% of the total population, or the population over 60 accounts for 10%. According to the data of China Statistical Yearbook in 2000, China has reached this ratio from 1999 and entered an aging society. According to statistics, in 20 17 years, the proportion of elderly people over 60 years old in China exceeded 16. 1%, and it is estimated that by 2020, this proportion will reach 17.8%. The serious aging problem in China is mainly attributed to the basic national policy of family planning implemented in 1980s, as well as economic growth, scientific and technological progress and improvement of medical conditions, which greatly prolonged the life span of the population. age
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The aggravation of the problem has had a great impact on China's politics, economy and culture. In finance, the aging problem has changed the allocation of family financial assets in China, and the total amount and structure of family financial assets in China have changed greatly. With the increase in the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people in families, on the one hand, families are more cautious in the direction of investment, and the proportion of family investors who originally tended to invest in stocks, funds and other aspects has dropped significantly; On the other hand, China's savings rate also shows a downward trend with the deepening of the aging population. (2) Research significance. The problem of aging involves individuals, families, society, countries and other aspects. The aging problem increases the economic burden of individuals and families, affects the supply level of social labor force, and also affects the relevant government of the country.
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Policy formulation. The troika that drives economic growth is investment, consumption and net export. With the aging population in China and the arrival of "lewis turning point", the labor supply market has changed from surplus to shortage. At the same time, the aging population will inevitably affect the investment and consumption of family financial assets, and then affect the economic growth of China. Studying the allocation of family financial assets under the background of population aging is conducive to alleviating the pressure of social pension and helping families and society better cope with the problem of population aging. At the same time, the family sector, as one of the three major sectors of the national economy, occupies a large proportion in financial market consumption and financial product investment, and the allocation of family financial assets will affect the supply and demand of national financial assets. Therefore, study how to allocate family financial assets.
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It is of great significance to effectively help families and society cope with the problem of population aging.
Second, the analysis of the current situation of family financial assets allocation.
Family assets can be divided into financial assets and non-financial assets. When allocating financial assets, families conform to the "three principles" followed by general financial institutions, namely, safety, liquidity and profitability. Different family financial assets have different security, liquidity and profitability. It is precisely because of the differences in security, liquidity and profitability of family financial assets and different risk preferences of different families that families have different choices for different financial assets, that is, the allocation of family financial assets. The total amount and structure of family financial assets change with the development of society.
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It has changed. (1) The total family financial assets in China are 1, and the total family assets. Family assets are divided into total family assets, net family assets and investable family assets. During the period from 20 13 to 2017, the average family assets, net assets and investable assets of urban households in China all increased steadily, and the average family assets increased from 20 103 100 yuan to 2013. The average investable assets of a family increased from 328,000 yuan in 2065,438+03 to 507,000 yuan in 2065,438+07, with a compound annual growth rate of 65,438+065,438+0.5%. The net assets per household increased from 973,000 yuan in 2065,438+03 to 654,380,429 yuan in 2065,438+07, with a compound annual growth rate of 654,38+006,5438+0%. According to the current growth rate, it is estimated that by 2020, the total assets of each household will reach 199.5.
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Ten thousand yuan, the average household investable assets will reach 703 thousand yuan, and the average household net assets will reach 6.5438+0.907 million yuan. 2. Allocation of household financial assets in various countries. In the allocation of household financial assets in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, Britain, Canada, France and China, the allocation of household financial assets in Japan accounts for 865,438+0.1%of the total household assets, which is much higher than other countries. The allocation of household financial assets in Singapore, Switzerland and the United Kingdom has also reached more than 50%, while that in China is only 165438. The average level of household financial assets allocation in six countries except China is about 66.4%, while China is only 1/6 of the average level of six countries, which is not as good as Japanese. This fully reflects that China families do not attach importance to the allocation of financial assets, and also shows that China.
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Families have some problems in the allocation of financial assets. (B) China family financial assets structure. Different scholars have given their own standards for the explanation of family financial assets. According to "China Urban Family Wealth Health Report 20 18" released in October, 20 19, family financial assets include cash, deposits, stocks, bonds, funds, wealth management products, derivatives, foreign currency funds and precious metals. 1, asset allocation structure of household amount. The proportion of bank deposits in China's urban household financial assets is as high as 42.9%, accounting for nearly half of the total household financial assets, followed by insurance, wealth management, loans, stocks, bonds and cash.
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%。 At present, China families have not rationally allocated financial assets according to the principle of "three natures". China families prefer mobility and security to profitability, which is related to China's conservative traditional thinking. At the same time, the imperfection of the social security system is also one of the reasons why residents hold a large amount of bank deposits for emergencies. 2. The holding structure of family financial assets. Table 1 lists the allocation of major family financial assets from 2008 to 20 17, reflecting the changes in the allocation of family financial assets in the past decade, in which savings deposits always occupy the main position of family financial assets. (Table 1)
Third, the impact of population aging on the allocation of family financial assets.
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The influence of population aging on the allocation of family financial assets is reflected in the relationship between the degree of family aging and family income, consumption tendency, consumption structure and risk preference. For example, the increase of family aging population leads to the shortage of family labor supply, which reduces the total family income and the family savings rate; With the deepening of family aging, the degree of risk preference of families decreases, and families will allocate financial assets to lower-risk parts. Therefore, the aging population has both positive and negative effects on the allocation of family financial assets. (1) Have a positive impact on 1 and alleviate the problem of high household savings. For a long time, influenced by China's traditional culture, people's daily consumption has mostly maintained a more rational concept. While rational consumption, it will also protect.
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Part of the property is reserved for emergencies such as diseases and accidental injuries, so the household savings rate in China has been higher than that in other countries. According to the life cycle savings theory, the family savings rate has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the age of the head of household, that is, when the proportion of young people and old people in the family is high, the family savings rate is low, and when the proportion of middle-aged people in the family is high, the family savings rate is high. Therefore, the deepening of family aging in China has certain positive significance for reducing the household savings rate. 2. Improve the proportion of insurance allocation. According to the life cycle investment theory, people's enthusiasm for investing in risky assets will decrease with their age after middle age. At the same time, with the deepening of the aging population, people gradually realize that the pressure of family pension is increasing, and families will find ways to alleviate it.
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Response measures. Therefore, when family savings deposits are close to saturation and family preference for risky assets declines, family investment in insurance will be promoted to a certain extent, that is, the proportion of insurance allocation in family financial assets will increase. (2) Negative impact 1, which is not conducive to increasing household investment in financial products. At present, the allocation of family financial assets in China is insufficient in investing in financial products, and the investment varieties are relatively single. A large part of China families' financial assets are allocated in bank deposits, and less assets are used to invest in financial products, which are limited to stocks and funds. In all age groups, middle-aged people have stable jobs and incomes, and can bear the risks faced by investing in financial products, so they have a high degree of risk preference and are family financial products.
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The main investors of products, while the elderly are mainly risk averse, and the elderly rarely participate in the investment of financial products. Therefore, under the background of aging population, it is difficult for China's family financial assets to improve the problem of insufficient allocation of financial products. 2. It is not conducive to the accumulation of family financial assets. The aging population accelerated the arrival of lewis turning point in China, and the "demographic dividend" gradually disappeared, and the social labor market changed from oversupply to short supply. For families, the aging population makes the average age of families rise, and the supply level of family labor decreases, which is not conducive to the growth of family total assets, and the proportion of total family financial assets in total family assets has been squeezed by real estate, so the aging population will have an impact on the accumulation of family financial assets.
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Fourth, measures to improve the allocation of family financial assets to cope with the aging population.
The problem of population aging is not only a family problem, but also a social problem, which requires the joint efforts of the government, financial enterprises and families to effectively deal with it. (A) the government level 1, improve the social security system. The imperfection of social security system is one of the main reasons for the imbalance of family financial assets allocation. Families hold a large number of safe and highly liquid financial assets and use passive savings for preventive expenditures, including family expenditures on health problems of the elderly. Therefore, strengthening the construction of social security system, including social insurance, social assistance, social welfare and social preferential treatment, can help families reduce the proportion of savings deposits and increase savings deposits.
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The allocation ratio of risk financial assets, improve the allocation of family financial assets. 2. Increase the publicity of financial knowledge. Compared with developed countries such as Britain and America, they have long attached importance to the publicity of financial knowledge education and established corresponding organizations and educational institutions. However, China does not pay enough attention to the publicity of financial knowledge, and the lack of financial knowledge leads to the lack of vitality in the allocation of family financial assets. The government can make full use of Weibo, WeChat, TV, radio and other platforms to publicize financial knowledge; Carry out activities related to financial knowledge and encourage residents to participate; Promote financial knowledge in primary and secondary schools, organize interesting financial knowledge education activities, and cultivate financial management awareness of primary and secondary school students. (2) Financial enterprise level 1, enriching financial innovative products. Unbalanced allocation of family financial assets and China
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There is an inevitable connection between the varieties of financial products, which requires financial enterprises to enrich financial products, launch financial innovative products with different maturities, different interest rates and different risk levels, and design financial innovative products suitable for the elderly to invest, such as wealth management and insurance for the elderly, in order to expand the investment channels of family financial assets. 2. Lower the threshold for purchasing financial products. There is a certain threshold for purchasing financial products. For example, the threshold of bank wealth management products has always been 50,000 yuan. It was not until September of 20 18 that the CBRC set the starting sales amount of bank wealth management products as 1 10,000 yuan. At the same time, some financial products are mainly aimed at institutional investors, excluding individual investors. The high threshold of financial products limits the intervention of family financial assets and affects the allocation of family financial assets. Financial enterprises should reduce financial products appropriately.
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Purchase threshold to promote the participation of individual investors. Family level 1. Face up to the problem of family financial assets. Through the analysis of family financial assets, there are many problems in family financial assets in China at present. First of all, families' preference for venture capital is generally low; Second, the position of family financial assets in family assets is severely squeezed by real estate; Third, the proportion of savings deposits in household financial assets far exceeds other financial assets. At present, only by facing up to these problems, families can remain vigilant in the allocation of financial assets and rationally allocate family financial assets, thus improving the allocation of family financial assets. 2. Improve financial awareness. The rational allocation of family financial assets needs the support of family's corresponding financial management consciousness.
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The structure of family financial assets is unreasonable and insufficient, so families should actively understand financial products and related financial knowledge, such as obtaining financial information through newspapers, magazines, television, internet and other platforms, and consulting financial institutions such as banks and securities companies to understand financial products, so as to improve their awareness of financial management and enhance their financial investment and financial management capabilities.
References:
Guo Lin. The total amount and structural evolution of China residents' financial assets [J]. Northern Finance and Economics, 20 15(2).
[2] Wu Weixing, Li Yajun. Family Structure and Financial Assets Allocation: An Empirical Study Based on Micro-survey Data [J]. Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Press
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Science Edition), 20 16.30(2).
[3] Jiao Mo. The choice of family financial assets under the background of population aging [D]. Tianjin: Nankai University, 20 14.
[4] Wu Yigen. Study on the change of financial structure and population aging in China [D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 20 1 1.
[5] Wu Kun. A study on the influence of financial literacy on China residents' family financial behavior [D]. Beijing: university of international business and economics, 20 16.
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