The name Fan comes from the 13th hexagram in the Book of Changes, which is called "Fan Tianhuo". The hexagram says: the same person is in the wild, constant. It means: Ah, how auspicious it is to meet a group of like-minded people in the vast Yuan Ye.
The book "Never Imagine" is a collection of articles written by Wan Weigang at ordinary times, which is mainly divided into three parts, talking about human nature, inspiration and science respectively.
For me, the first two parts are relatively easy to understand, and the third part about science is a bit obscure. The following is a reading excerpt about this book.
1. Probabilistic thinking
The author thinks that in daily life, probability theory is more important than gravity formula and gene replication mechanism, and it is necessary knowledge for citizens in modern society. Whether you know probability or not directly determines a person's "civilization". When people who don't know probability make a fuss, people who know probability can calm down.
(1) random
The basic idea of probability theory is that something will happen for no reason. This kind of thought is of subversive significance to our world view.
The real world is not a clock, it is full of uncontrollable accidents. More strictly speaking, some things can happen without causal relationship with anything that happened before. Whatever you do, you can't let it happen, and you can't let it not happen.
Most things are not completely random events, but there are some random factors. If contingency and inevitability are combined, it is not so easy to understand. People often misunderstand accidents and always want to explain them by necessity.
By understanding randomness, we know that some things happen as soon as they happen, which is of little significance for interpretation. We can learn nothing from this matter, which is not worth taking seriously or even taking action at all.
It is naive to make a fuss about accidental events, even being bitten by a snake for ten years. Accidental mistakes are not worth delving into, and neither are achievements. There is no need for losers to sell themselves short, and winners should also understand that there is a fluke in their success.
(2) Error
Accidental factors always exist, even if the experimental conditions are very accurate, the influence of random interference can not be completely avoided. Therefore, scientific experiments often need to be measured many times, and the results are obtained by statistical means such as averaging. Even if scientists measure a well-defined physical parameter, it is impossible to give the final "real answer"-they always add an error range to the measurement results. With the concept of error, we should learn to ignore any fluctuation within the error range.
(3) Gambler fallacy
Once, a person who thought he knew the probability wrote, "For example, if the number 2 appears three times in a row and the number 6 appears five times in a row, then the probability of 2 appearing in the next period is obviously greater than 6", which is completely wrong. The probability that 2 and 6 will appear next time is equal, which is a famous mistake and is called "gambler fallacy".
There is a "law of large numbers" in probability theory, which says that if there are enough lottery tickets, the frequency of different results is equal to their probability.
However, people often misunderstand randomness and the law of large numbers and think that randomness is uniformity. If what happened in the past is not so unified, people will mistakenly think that things in the future will develop as smoothly as possible, but the working mechanism of the law of large numbers is not to balance with the past.
(4) Find the law where there is no law.
Knowing randomness and independent random events, we can draw a conclusion that the occurrence of independent random events is irregular and unpredictable. This is a very important wisdom.
The human brain is very good at understanding laws, but very bad at understanding randomness. Finding laws can help us survive better at any time, but understanding randomness is a skill that only makes sense in modern society.
The future cannot be predicted accurately, and the world doesn't run as accurately as a clock.
(5) Decimal law
Random distribution is not equal to uniform distribution. People often think that if it is random, it should be uniform, but this is only effective if the total number of samples is very large.
If there are few statistical data, it is easy to appear particularly unbalanced. This phenomenon is called "the law of decimals" by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate in economics. Kahneman said that if we don't understand the law of decimals, we can't really understand the law of large numbers.
The law of large numbers is the theoretical basis for us to infer truth from statistics.
The law of large numbers says that if the statistical sample is large enough, the frequency of events can be infinitely close to its theoretical probability.
The law of decimals says that if the sample is not large enough, it will show all kinds of extreme situations, which may have nothing to do with nature. If the statistical sample is not large enough, nothing can be explained.
Because of this, we can't judge things only by our own experience, even if we add the experience of friends and family. Our experience is very limited. The biggest advantage of understanding random phenomena is that we won't make a fuss easily.
study hard
A book should be read twice, and only twice. You can't catch the essence of a good book once you read it. On the other hand, if you master it after reading it once, it is not worth studying hard.
The first time is to read through normally, and read the second time immediately after reading. When reading for the second time, write down reading notes at the same time, and only pay attention to the ideological context.
Intensive reading requires reading notes to include four aspects:
(1) clearly shows the logical context of each chapter;
(2) Take away all the highlights in the book;
(3) I have a lot of my own opinions and experiences;
(4) Find out the relationship between this book and other articles or books I have read before.
The first function of reading notes is to put aside stories, remember articles, find out the context in the book, and jump between the lines.
Taking notes is the act of getting excited after hearing an idea and having to write it down for yourself.
Reading is, to some extent, looking for the bright spots that can stimulate your thinking. When we analyze the context, we should ignore the story, analyze the context and take the story away.
Intensive reading is an active reading method. Write down your comments on this book in your notes, just like talking to the author.
With people
A really useful relationship is not a "strong link" between relatives and friends, but a "weak link". The real meaning of weak ties is to connect different social circles and provide useful information from the outside.
According to weak ties's theory, a person's opportunities in society are closely related to his social network organization. If you only associate with relatives and friends, or know people with similar backgrounds, you probably won't have as many opportunities as people who know everyone.
The key to networking is not which circle you belong to, but how many people outside the circle you can get rid of. The essence of weak ties is not networking, but information transmission.
When we consider looking for someone to start a business, find someone to cooperate with, or even find someone to understand information, weak relationships are the best choice. For work, hometown association and alumni record are not good places to expand contacts.
These contents are of personal interest to me, and there are many contents in the book, such as confirming mistakes and how to understand correlation and causality, which can correct our common thinking mistakes. I suggest you read it.