The draft G20 communiqué issued on 20 1010/0/month10 exposed the differences among countries on the exchange rate issue. This draft shows that G20 will advocate market forces to determine the exchange rate level to a greater extent. However, officials in various countries have not yet made a decision on how to discuss exchange rate intervention. This draft proposes that the G20 should prohibit "competitive exchange rate devaluation", but it also contains provisions that are obviously aimed at China-prohibiting "competitive exchange rate undervaluation".
Liu Shengjun1October 201kloc-011,vice president of China Europe Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, told this newspaper: Don't have too much hope for the G20 Seoul Summit to solve the global exchange rate coordination problem. He believes that the * * * statement issued by the Seoul Summit at most calls on countries to avoid competitive exchange rate depreciation, and it is impossible to effectively restrict the US exchange rate policy. Moreover, due to the lack of specific restraint measures, the actual effect of the slogan "avoid competitive exchange rate depreciation" is also difficult to estimate. The Fed's "opening the floodgates" offended the public. On the eve of the Seoul Summit, G20 leaders accused the dollar policy of being irresponsible.
20 10, 165438 10. On 3 October, the Federal Reserve restarted its quantitative easing policy and launched a $600 billion "printing money plan", which made countries worry that the falling dollar would disrupt the global foreign exchange market, which also prompted the exchange rate market to become the top topic of the Seoul Summit.
At the Seoul Summit, countries are likely to further "torture" the US exchange rate policy. European Commission President Barosso said on June 1 1 that it was necessary for G20 leaders to ask US President Barack Obama at the summit why the Federal Reserve launched the second round of quantitative easing measures.
Two days before the Seoul Summit, World Bank President Zoellick wrote an article calling for the establishment of a new international monetary system, which will include the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the RMB, which is moving towards internationalization and capital account opening.
Liu Shengjun believes that Zoellick's high-profile article before the Seoul Summit is actually another expression of disappointment with the dollar-dominated international monetary system, which is just a gesture of putting pressure on the US exchange rate policy. For countries, the correct game strategy may be to further accelerate the diversification of foreign reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar.
2010165438+1October1kloc-0/Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that the United States is pursuing the policy of depreciating the dollar, thus pushing up the exchange rates of other currencies in the world.
The leaders of G 19 countries except the United States complained bitterly about the Federal Reserve's "opening the floodgates" to promote the depreciation of the dollar. German Chancellor Angela Merkel believes that this is "stimulating exports by artificially lowering the exchange rate" and is "short-sighted, which will eventually harm the interests of all parties".
Juncker, chairman of Euro Group, said: "From the Fed's decision, I see more risks and the greater possibility that the global economy will get off track." Japanese Finance Minister Noda Yoshihiko said that it is necessary to pay close attention to the quantitative easing policy of the United States and take decisive measures when necessary.
Brazilian President Lula even hit the nail on the head and pointed out that the depreciation of the dollar is the root of all problems. Lula also revealed that he will prepare for the "battle" before going to Seoul to attend the G 20 summit.
Professor Sun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, told this newspaper that the current international monetary system is in turmoil, and the fundamental reason for the exchange rate war is that major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen have given up their responsibilities as international "currency anchors".
Sun believes that the Seoul Summit should pay attention to the moral hazard behavior of a "currency anchor" country like the United States-using its own currency hegemony to excessively safeguard its own interests at the expense of others. The part concerning exchange rate coordination in the Seoul Summit Joint Statement can be regarded as an upgraded version of the Gyeongju Agreement reached at the G20 Finance Ministers Summit at the end of 10. Due to the lack of specific measures for global exchange rate coordination, it is difficult to define the actual binding force of the slogan "competitive exchange rate depreciation" in the joint statement.
Professor Hua Min, director of the Institute of World Economics of Fudan University, said in an exclusive interview with this newspaper that the US dollar has replaced the Japanese yen as an "arbitrage currency", and the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve's resumption of monetary easing is likely to "spill over" to the international market, resulting in hot money impacting Asian countries such as China.
Just one day before the G20 Seoul Summit, the Bank of China raised the deposit reserve ratio of large banks by 50 basis points to 17.5%. This is the fifth time that China raised the deposit reserve ratio in 20 10 to absorb the flood of liquidity. Nomura Securities believes that this can reduce the system liquidity by about 350 billion yuan.
Huamin believes that China and some Asian countries are once again threatened by the "financial nuclear hegemony" of the United States, and it is necessary to prevent the recurrence of the Asian financial crisis 1997 and take measures to stop the flood of liquidity from Europe and the United States. China still has to "guard against death" in its exchange rate and interest rate policies, and it cannot be loosened easily because of external political pressure.
Countries have not completely pinned their hopes of avoiding exchange rate wars and preventing the proliferation of dollars on the joint statement of the Seoul Summit. On the eve of the Seoul Summit, emerging economies have begun to build various firewalls to avoid the impact of the appreciation of their currencies and the proliferation of excess dollars.
On June165438+1October 1 1 day, the Bank of Japan decisively stopped the appreciation of the yen and bought150 billion yen (about180 billion US dollars) of government bonds, which also marked that Japan began to restart its quantification. From Israel to South Africa, central banks are also buying dollars to prevent their currencies from appreciating. China's Taiwan Province area also began to restrict foreign investors from holding bonds this week. 20 10 June,10, Brazil and Thailand raised the tax rate of foreign investment in domestic bonds. In June this year, South Korea restricted the trading of financial derivatives, while Indonesia restricted investors from selling some short-term bonds. In the afternoon, China president Hu Jintao held a 1 hour meeting with US President Barack Obama. This is his seventh meeting with China, President and Hu Jintao since he took office for 2 1 month.
During the meeting, Hu Jintao and Obama exchanged views on the exchange rate issue. Hu Jintao said that China's decision to further reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in June 20 10 was made against the background of very complicated economic and employment situation, and it was hard-won. China is determined to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, but the reform needs a good external environment and can only be carried out step by step.
Hu Jintao also expressed concern about the weak dollar policy: China is concerned about the current quantitative easing policy in the United States, and the relevant policies in the United States should take into account the interests of emerging market countries and developing countries. It is hoped that the United States will take practical actions as soon as possible to relax the export restrictions on high-tech products to China, provide a level playing field for China's investment enterprises in the United States, and work with China to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral economic and trade relations.
As one of the direct witnesses of the previous Olympic Games, Budd, senior director of Asian affairs of the White House National Security Council, revealed that on the economic and trade issues as the main topic of this Olympic Games, China and the United States will discuss how to cooperate to ensure the global economy to recover on a balanced and sustainable basis, and Chinese and American leaders will also discuss security and political issues.
165438+1October1"Olympic Games" is the first meeting between Chinese and American presidents after the mid-term election of the US Congress. Professor Zhao, deputy director of the China-US Research Center in Tsinghua University, told this newspaper on June 1 1 that he believed that the leaders of China and the United States would definitely discuss jointly launching the second round of economic stimulus plan.
Since Obama's Democratic Party lost its majority in the House of Representatives after the mid-term elections, this will directly hinder Obama from launching a new economic stimulus plan. In this case, Zhao analyzed that when Obama meets with President Hu Jintao, he will definitely focus on the opening of the China market, so as to increase US exports to China and boost the US economy. In exchange, the Obama administration may relax the control of high-tech exports to China to some extent.
At the Olympic Games, Chinese and American leaders also discussed the details of President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States in June 20 12. Obama said that President Hu Jintao will pay a state visit to the United States on 20 12, and ensuring the success of this visit is the top priority of US-China relations and US diplomacy. "We must first make it clear that the process of RMB internationalization is definitely not a process of paying attention to the scenery and unlimited scenery. It is full of challenges and dangers." Tsinghua University China and Li Daokui, director of the Center for World Economic Research, pointed out at the 20 1 1 Global Annual Meeting of the International Finance Forum held on the 9th. He said that RMB internationalization is a challenging process, and its complexity must not be underestimated too much.
The central parity rate of RMB has been appreciating, but it depreciated slightly at the beginning of this month. In the offshore forward market, the USD/RMB N D F (non-deliverable forward) has been upside down with the domestic middle price for nearly one and a half months. There are various indications that since the resumption of the exchange rate reform, the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has slowed down, which has also triggered the expectation of RMB depreciation.
In this regard, Shen Liantao, chief consultant of China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that market fluctuation is normal, RMB exchange rate fluctuation is a market law, and no currency will rise forever. However, Shen Liantao warned against rushing to internationalize the RMB and even become a reserve currency. He believes that RMB becoming a reserve currency is not only an honor and privilege, but also a "curse". Mark Jean, CEO of the New Bretton Woods Committee, also issued a warning when answering a question from the Economic Information Daily. "We should distinguish between international currency and reserve currency, and we need to be careful whether RMB should become a reserve currency to invest in trust networks. This is a kind of motivation, but it is also a kind of pressure and burden. The dollar is a good example. He also mentioned that apart from RMB internationalization, China can also enhance China's influence in the international monetary system in many ways, such as increasing China's share in IM F, etc.
Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities in China, also pointed out that there is a great international demand for RMB, but it will take time to test whether this demand is due to the expectation of RMB appreciation or the real demand for long-term stable confidence in China's macro policies. She pointed out that the internationalization of RMB is very complicated, which has great requirements for the formation of domestic economic policies and foundations, including the entire price system. Because in the final analysis, the so-called capital account convertibility or RMB internationalization is to serve the real economy and acquire wealth, and promote the most effective allocation of capital in the real economy. "If we consider the prices of many domestic factors, including interest rates, exchange rates, energy, land and so on. , there is a great distortion or uncertainty, coupled with a large inflow and outflow of capital, it may cause greater harm to the real economy. Therefore, in the process of RMB internationalization, it is urgent to implement a series of domestic reforms. " Wang Tao pointed out.
Experts attending the meeting also stressed that RMB internationalization should not be "internationalized for internationalization's sake". Zhang Liqing, dean of the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that RMB internationalization should be the result of free market choice, and the role of government promotion is limited. Li Daokui also said that RMB internationalization should not be the ultimate goal. In fact, it is a by-product of China's financial opening. We shouldn't set a timetable for ourselves in the process of RMB being included in the SD R basket.