China Renmin University, directly under the Ministry of Education, is one of the national key projects of "21Project" and "985 Project", and is included in the first batch of "Excellent Legal Talents Education and Training Plan" of "1Plan". The school is an important base for higher education and research in humanities and social sciences in China, and is known as "a banner of humanities and social sciences in China".
Wang Liming, Executive Vice President of China Renmin University, attended the forum and delivered a speech. In his speech, he said that the China Macroeconomic Forum insisted on combining the comparative advantages of disciplines and the construction of study style of Renmin University with the needs of central decision-making and society, combining social forces with academic forces, combining the realistic problems of China with a global perspective, and combining the profound ideas gained from research with scientific methodology. The influence of the forum is expanding day by day. It has become an important academic brand of China Renmin University and an important symbol of China Renmin University's construction of a national high-end think tank. He affirmed the outstanding achievements made by the National Development Institute by relying on the advantages of disciplines and talents of Renmin University and closely surrounding the national strategy. He hoped that the National Development Institute would continue to uphold the fine tradition of Renmin University in serving the party and the state's decision-making, integrate high-quality think tank resources, and combine the national economic development strategy to make the China Macroeconomic Forum a brand academic activity bigger and stronger. He pointed out that the theme of this forum is closely combined with the current macroeconomic situation and policies, which directly responds to the key issues facing China's economy, reflects the consistent understanding and problems of senior officials and the academic team of the forum, and also requires in-depth research and discussion by the academic community.
On behalf of the research group, Associate Professor Fan Zhiyong released the theme report "Monetary Policy in China under the Squeeze of Risk Control and Steady Growth".
The report believes that the overall thinking of current monetary policy needs to be adjusted urgently. Due to the complexity of the current macroeconomic situation and the vacillation of the previous macroeconomic policy orientation, the current monetary policy can no longer meet the needs of the macroeconomic situation. Specifically, first, the overall macroeconomic depression shows that monetary policy has not yet reached the expected goal. Judging from the economic growth rate and inflation rate, China's economy is far from fully recovering. Second, monetary policy is generally "stable in name but tight in reality". The monetary growth rate remained at a low level, the real interest rate was relatively high, and the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate continued to appreciate.
Based on the above analysis, the report puts forward four new ideas for the transformation of monetary policy: first, restore the function of credit market through "soft landing of leverage ratio"; Second, the general tone of monetary policy has changed from "name stability and real tightness" to moderate easing; Third, market order and micro-subject reconstruction; Fourth, improve the multi-objective broad monetary policy framework. In addition, the report also puts forward possible policy options: lowering the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans; Gradually guide the deposit reserve ratio to return to the normal level; Ensure the "moderate" monetary policy easing by clearly targeting the nominal GDP growth rate; Strengthen the cultivation of financial market and guide the risk-free interest rate to return to the equilibrium level; Strengthen the cultivation of micro-market players and guide monetary and credit funds into the real economy; Combined with the growth target of total demand, explore guiding public expectations through "forward-looking guidance"; Draw lessons from the experience of unconventional monetary policy in western countries and intervene the term structure of interest rates through market-oriented means; Rebuild the regulatory framework and build a monetary policy to maintain financial security and stabilize the macro-economy.
Yang Ruilong, co-director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, presided over the opening ceremony of the forum.
The seminar of the forum was presided over by Professor Mao Zhenhua. The guests at the meeting conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges around the theme of the forum, and made suggestions for monetary policy under the current macroeconomic situation.
Professor Liu Yuanchun, Executive Dean of the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, pointed out that at present, our judgment on the economy can no longer be confined to the new normal recognized in the previous two years. At present, China has entered an extraordinary period in which PPI continues to run at a low level, the average GDP index is negative in an all-round way, deflation in the production field is further deepened, and high debt persists. At this time, monetary policy must have a most basic orientation. From the past, it only focused on CPI and employment. When we change to look not only at CPI and employment, but also at the changes of asset prices, market rules and related parameters, we need extreme measures in extraordinary times, and especially look forward to the new framework and theoretical basis of China's monetary policy in theory.
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