Jiro Kondo Jiro, director of the National Institute of Public Hazards in Japan, was teaching at the University of Tokyo at that time, which coincided with the "East University Debate" (1968 Summer Solstice 1969, initiated by students of the University of Tokyo, please go to Baidu for details). In order to know how the event will go in the end, the future and progress process are analyzed in detail, and the method used is systematized and called "PDPC method".
The so-called PDPC method is a method to predict the possible obstacles and results in order to complete a task or achieve a certain goal when making an action plan or design scheme, and put forward a variety of contingency plans accordingly. In this way, when the implementation of the plan encounters unfavorable conditions, it can still be carried out according to the second, third or other plan schemes to achieve the predetermined plan objectives.
Specifically, PDPC method is an analysis method to predict the possible obstacles (A i, non-ideal situation or result) in the initial state (A 0) of an event, such as making early prediction and analysis when making a plan or starting to design a system, so as to design a series of countermeasures to reach the ideal state (Z) as much as possible.
The tool used in PDPC method is PDPC diagram, which, like arrow diagram ADM, is also a method in operational research.
In quality management, in order to achieve goals or solve problems, it is always hoped to push forward the original implementation steps as planned. However, with various changes, the original plan may not be feasible, and it is often necessary to temporarily change the plan. In particular, it often happens to solve those complicated quality problems and modify the plan. At this time, you can use the PDPC method.
PDPC method is not limited by human factors. It takes the actual situation as the starting point, considers what measures to take, predicts the possible results, puts forward the strategy to achieve the goal, and determines the final solution to the problem.
It is meaningful to think forward and backward, that is, from the initial state A 0 to the ideal state or vice versa, so there are two types of PDPC methods.
Set an ideal goal, and then consider the means and methods to achieve it in order. This goal can be the completion of a major project, the realization of an innovation, the implementation of a technical transformation plan, and so on. In order to achieve our goal steadily, we need to imagine many routes.
For example, as shown in the figure, when determining the implementation of a new project, all possible progress processes from a certain state A 0 to an ideal state Z are expanded into a PDPC diagram.
In the figure, route A starts from A 0, A 0, A 1, A2, A 3 ... A p to Z, so this route may be difficult to achieve technically and the quality is difficult to meet the requirements of customers; Route b starts from A 1, A 1, B 1, B 2 ... B q to z, but the implementation may exceed the budget; Route C is A 1, B 1, C 1, C2...C R to Z, but the implementation period may exceed the customer's requirements; Finally, from three aspects of TQC, A 0, D 1, D 2, D 3 ... decision support system is determined as the best scheme for the new project.
If Route A has been determined as the best scheme, both Scheme B and Scheme C may become backup schemes in the concrete implementation of the project. There is a problem when scheme A goes to step A 1, so you can switch to scheme B at this time; When I first arrived at B 1, I found that there was a problem with Scheme B, so I had to switch to Scheme C 1 to continue the implementation.
Of course, the actual project management process is far more complicated than the above situation. A good project manager should think of all possible obstacles in order to reduce the risk of stepping on the pit.
In a word, a scheme must be completely feasible in the end. However, this scheme is not to make new choices after discovering problems in the implementation, but to predict various possible problems in advance on the map, and all kinds of problems must have solutions in order to finally reach the ideal state.
People's thinking is directional, and positive thinking and reverse thinking are only relative. Generally speaking, positive thinking refers to thinking along people's habitual thinking line, while reverse thinking refers to thinking against people's habitual thinking line.
As shown in the following figure, starting from the ideal state Z, from a large number of viewpoints, consider what is the premise to achieve this goal, and in order to meet what conditions this premise needs to meet, link it with the initial state A 0 step by step, study its process in detail and make decisions, so as to find the optimal solution. This is the reverse thinking of PDPC method.
The essence of reverse thinking is a kind of wisdom and a creative way of thinking. Using this method in practice may achieve amazing results. In practice, in many cases, it is not easy to find the correct answers to some questions with conventional positive thinking. Once you use reverse thinking and get rid of the fetters of conventional thinking, you will often get unexpected results.
Huawei is a model of applying reverse thinking, and PDPC method is also used perfectly, which is one of its only methods to solve problems.
Recommend a "Huawei Problem Management Law" for interested readers to read.
PDPC method is a dynamic method. First of all, we should find out all possible quality problems, list them one by one and analyze the reasons.
Secondly, it is necessary to analyze the changing state of problems, potential quality problems and changing new situations, which will affect the final result of development. Therefore, it is necessary to track the change of time state at any time to solve the problem and achieve the ideal effect.
The characteristics of PDPC method can be summarized as the following four aspects:
1) Grasp the global dynamics
Using PDPC method, the whole process of achieving the goal can be displayed graphically, the overall state can be monitored as a whole, and a systematic judgment can be made, so as to control the overall situation and improve the probability of achieving the goal.
PDPC method can grasp the progress of the system in chronological order, information and data can be timely, and the implementation of the plan can be continuously supplemented and revised.
2) It can be managed dynamically.
PDPC method has the characteristics of dynamic management, which is in motion and can grasp the changes of system state in time sequence, unlike static system diagram;
You can pay close attention to the trend of system process and master the relationship between system input and output.
3) Traceability.
Can systematically track the cause and final result of things, so it has traceability;
PDPC method is very flexible, which can be traced from the starting point to the final result, or from the final result to the intermediate reason.
4) Prediction of major accidents
Can predict those major accidents that usually rarely happen, and formulate a series of measures and methods to deal with accidents in advance in the design stage.
PDPC method has both foresight and temporary contingency, and can predict events or problems, thus avoiding the occurrence of major problems. And can improve the quality, reliability and safety of products.
In addition, PDPC method is centered on events or problems, which can be discussed freely and can give full play to the ideas and creativity of participants.
PDPC method is a systematic thinking method. As long as you do one thing, you may fail. If all the risk factors that may lead to failure are found in advance and a series of countermeasures and measures are formulated, the development of the incident can be controlled. When we face an event, if we can't understand its process relationship or need process planning, we can use PDPC method.
The complexity of quality management, project management, production management, product research and development, and even enterprise management also requires relevant parties to be considerate when formulating measures, plans, plans and designs, so as to solve various difficulties and problems in the implementation process and avoid unnecessary losses and confusion.
The essence of PDPC decision-making method is to predict all kinds of obstacles and results that may occur during the implementation of the plan, and put forward various emergency plans accordingly. This technology is widely used in error prevention and process improvement of product manufacturing industry, and it is also a very practical technology in project risk management.
In fact, as long as there is a PDPC method in mind, it can be applied anywhere, not limited to the scenarios listed below.
1) plan management-formulation and implementation of product development, quality improvement or project management plan;
2) Management by objectives-organizing the formulation and implementation plan of objectives;
3) Risk management-predicting and preventing major accidents in the whole system;
4) Quality management-formulate corrective and preventive measures and quality control countermeasures for the adverse phenomena in the process;
5) Process improvement-error prevention, process improvement, process layout optimization, value flow improvement, etc.
6) project management-predict the obstacles that may be encountered in the project process and take countermeasures;
7) Continuous innovation-planning organizational innovation in advance and innovating methodology;
From the perspective of PDCA, the application of PDPC method is summarized as follows:
PDPC method shows the process, risks and countermeasures in the form of graphics, which can intuitively control the overall situation and make responses and adjustments at any time according to the actual situation. The application is simple and the effect is obvious, which is one of the methods that many senior managers use imperceptibly in their minds.
When making PDPC diagram, as long as it can change with time sequence, we can predict what will happen, put forward countermeasures according to the situation, and show the process of countermeasures with charts.
The graphic representation used for drawing PDPC diagram is similar to the flowchart, and it is recommended to use the graph shown in the following table.
In practice, the graphic form of PDPC method is not strictly regulated. It can be vertical or horizontal, and there are many different PDPC graphic representations.
Generally speaking, PDPC method can be divided into two manufacturing methods.
1) Sequential extension type:
That is to say, when solving problems, collect information, and once new situations or new operations are encountered, mark them on the chart immediately.
2) Mandatory link type:
That is, before the action, in order to achieve the goal, all the factors that are considered obstacles in the process are put forward in advance, and countermeasures or evasive measures are formulated and marked on the map.
When making a PDPC diagram, it should be based on facts, and the measures put forward and taken should be based on facts, not personal thoughts or speculations, so the PDPC diagram is useless.
1) Call relevant personnel to discuss the problems or objectives to be solved;
2) discuss freely and put forward plans and measures to achieve the ideal state;
3) For the measures to be taken, list the prediction results and the measures and schemes to be taken when encountering difficulties;
4) Classify the research measures according to the urgency, required working time, possibility and difficulty of implementation;
5) Determine the implementation sequence of various measures and connect them with arrows in the direction of ideal state; If it has an impact on one thing, you can connect them with dotted lines;
6) Determine the person in charge of implementation and the implementation cycle, and associate relevant departments and matters;
7) Implement as planned and check regularly. If there is any new situation, modify the PDPC diagram in time.
When PDPC method is applied to quality management, it can be divided into two stages.
1) planning stage
According to the past experience and lessons and the existing technology, the possible problems are listed and the solutions are put forward. Be careful not to miss out and provide as many measures as possible.
2) Revision stage
With the development of the situation, unexpected problems may arise, and the plan needs to be revised according to the latest information to ensure that the goal can be achieved.
The practical application scenarios of PDPC method have been mentioned many times in the previous chapters, and some examples are also given. Langdon Morris, an American, summed up the methodology of sustainable innovation in his book Sustainable Innovation. Avenue to Jane, all roads lead to the same goal. No more examples are listed here, and the methodology diagram in Persistent Innovation is cited as the end of the article PDPC Method.