Due to the global spread of coronavirus, especially in Italy, we have to close all our factories in Lombardy and stop the production and delivery of all cars. We regret to inform you that you ordered 488? Pista? Spiders will not be able to deliver on time. ...
This is a set of screenshots recently circulated on the Internet. Italy, which is deeply troubled by the COVID-19 epidemic, is the birthplace of world-famous super sports cars and one of the countries most affected by COVID-19 in Europe. Almost all auto companies with factories in Italy have announced that they will stop production in Italy, including Ferrari and Lamborghini. Although it is very helpless, it is reasonable to delay the delivery.
Whether Ferrari or Lamborghini, these ultra-luxury brands are far away from most of our consumers. Maybe we haven't experienced this kind of "helplessness" personally, but today, the spreading COVID-19 epidemic has almost plunged the global automobile industry into an unprecedented catastrophe. According to the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6: 05 Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 has exceeded 850,000, reaching 850,583, and countries with severe epidemics have stopped production to fight the epidemic.
COVID-19 epidemic raged around the world, and automobile companies and factories stopped production.
In the first year of 1 and February, many domestic factories stopped production. Until March, the epidemic situation was gradually controlled, and major domestic factories resumed work one after another. By March 30th, only 20% of enterprises and factories in China had stopped production, which was a rapid decline compared with 76% in February 10. This shows that 80% of enterprises in China have resumed normal operation and their production capacity will gradually return to normal. However, since mid-March, the rapidly expanding epidemic in European countries such as Italy and the United States has caused many foreign factories to stop production.
According to Huluxia, with the worldwide spread of COVID-19 epidemic, the number of car companies forced to stop production is increasing. According to incomplete statistics, more than 100 car factories have stopped production. In the luxury field, in addition to Ferrari and Lamborghini mentioned above, Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Porsche and other factories in Europe have also stopped production. The three giants of luxury brands, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi, have also announced plans to stop production. Daimler closed all European factories in March 18; Audi closed its factories in Belgium, Germany, Hungary and Mexico on March 20th. BMW closed its factories in Europe and South Africa that day.
On the other side of the Pacific, GM, Ford and FCA, the three giants of American car companies, also suspended the production of all American factories. Ford also closed all factories in Europe, and FCA also closed four factories in Italy. In addition, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Renault-Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and other well-known brands. Production dates have been put on the agenda, including Tesla, the most powerful new force, which has to stop production in new york and fremont, California, and the global automobile manufacturing industry has fallen into an unprecedented crisis.
Global integration has long been an empty talk. Nowadays, almost all walks of life are inseparable from the cooperation of many countries and enterprises around the world, and the butterfly effect also appears. In recent years, the sales volume of imported cars in China is almost 6.5438+0 million, and the suspension of production in foreign factories will inevitably have a great impact on the terminal sales of imported cars in China.
The current stable imported car market is actually a hidden storm.
In the past month, the sales volume of China automobile market under the influence of the epidemic has dropped extremely seriously, so it is unnecessary for consumers with money to buy cars to avoid the epidemic. Therefore, 4S stores have also introduced many measures to stimulate consumers to buy cars. More favorable treatment, more intimate after-sales service and more perfect sales channels are the main melody melody, and imported cars are no exception.
The market is a complex multi-dimensional aggregate, which is simple and complex, and complex and complex. The simple truth is that the supply exceeds the demand, the price is reduced, and the supply is less than the demand, then the price is increased, and automobile sales are no exception. In 20 19, the total sales volume of imported cars in China was10.86 million, of which the highest monthly sales volume reached/kloc-0.02 million, and the top three were Lexus, BMW and Mercedes-Benz. According to the epidemic situation at this stage, the factory shutdown of multinational car companies will generally last until mid-April, and whether it will be extended after that depends on the specific situation, but for many car companies.
At present, the imported models on the market have not been affected by the suspension of production in foreign factories, but have obvious profit-making actions because of the temporary downturn in domestic automobile sales. Take Lexus as an example, all models are imported. The basic cash discount of Lexus NX200 all-wheel drive Shang Feng Edition in Beijing reached 38,000 yuan. On this basis, you can go to the store to discuss in detail, and it is expected that there will be more discounts. When Huluxia visited a Lexus 4S store in Chengdu, the sales bluntly said, "Because of the epidemic, the sales volume is worrying now, and there is no other consumption except waiting for the car." For example, lexus es, which is highly sought after, now not only does not need to increase the price, but also does not need to buy the extended warranty service as high as 654.38+0.3 million+that it needed before. A few cases that need to be equipped with optional devices such as electric tailgate have disappeared, which is enough to see the current market.
In addition, for example, BMW X5 Entry 2.0T series and Land Rover Range Rover, which rank in the forefront of the sales list of imported cars all the year round, have increased the preferential margin, and it is common to give more discounts of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, and Mercedes-Benz's brand-new GLE series is no exception.
But does this mean that terminal price reduction has become the norm? Hulu Xia feels "not necessarily".
The output is insufficient and the price of imported cars is expected to increase.
It is reported that Toyota will suspend the production of seven production lines in five factories in Japan from April 3, and before that, Toyota has closed all factories in North America and some factories in Europe and Southeast Asia. The discontinued models involve a number of Toyota and Lexus. BMW's SUV factory in South Carolina will stop production on April 3. The main production model of this factory is BMW X5/X7, which is widely loved by consumers in China and is a frequent visitor on the list of the most popular imported cars. Although the inventory situation of each 4S shop and parallel imported car dealers is different, in the long run, it is almost certain that these imported cars will be affected.
As we all know, the real response of the market is often lagging behind. Now the big discount is the lagging performance of the previous market downturn. What will happen to the lagging performance of large-scale shutdown of foreign factories? I believe the answer is obvious. From the manufacturing process to the delivery process, the operation cycle of imported cars is generally three months, and imported cars generally have an inventory of about three months. The impact of the suspension of production in overseas factories begins to appear in about three months. Take Lexus as an example, the sales company will place an order with the car companies three months in advance, so the cars that are placed early and produced early may not be greatly affected, but customers who book cars recently or now will face difficulties in delivering cars in the future.
At present, the terminal price is stable or preferential, partly because the domestic epidemic has led to a decrease in demand, so the price reduction has stimulated consumption. Secondly, there are still some stocks in 4S stores or parallel car dealers, but at this stage, it is just "sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight".
Li Yanwei, a member of china automobile dealers association Expert Committee, said in an interview that if the epidemic situation can be controlled as soon as possible, the impact on the imported car market will not be too great and the sales volume can catch up after the resumption of production. "However, if the epidemic continues and the factory stops production for too long, it will be difficult to restore the supply for a period of time. With the recovery of domestic economic consumption, there may be price increases or even no cars to sell. "
Judging from the current high mortality rate in Italy and the increase of daily diagnosis 1000+ or even 20000 in the United States, it is very difficult to control the epidemic situation in overseas automobile producing areas in a short time, and the time for auto companies and factories to resume work is not clear for the time being. If this situation continues, Hulu Xia can't predict that the price of imported cars will definitely rise in May or June, but after the supply exceeds demand, there is a high probability that lower prices will not stimulate consumption.
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The overall decline in global automobile sales has become a high probability event, and the commodity of automobiles seems to be particularly affected this year. In addition to these affected multinational companies taking timely measures to reduce the impact, let's pray that the COVID-19 epidemic in countries and regions around the world can be controlled as soon as possible, so that the "global village" can recover its former vitality as soon as possible.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.