On February 8, China's population problem, the National Health and Family Planning Commission pointed out in its reply to "Suggestions on Solving the Population Decline in Northeast China" that the Northeast region can make an in-depth analysis of the problems mentioned in the suggestions based on local conditions. Suggest that the country take the lead in fully liberalizing the birth restriction in Northeast China? Discuss and attract public attention.
Lu Jiehua, a professor of sociology in Peking University and vice president of China Population Association, pointed out in an interview with Beijing Daily that the National People's Congress will be held soon and the data of the seventh population census will be published soon. China is at an important juncture in adjusting and improving the birth policy, and the response of the National Health Commission to this proposal is an important signal. ?
At the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2020, Chen Xiangqun, deputy to the National People's Congress and executive vice governor of Liaoning Province, put forward when deliberating the government work report, imploring him to take the lead in fully liberalizing the population and birth policy in Northeast China. According to the Population Development Plan of Liaoning Province (20 16-2030), the population of Liaoning Province will reach 43.85 million in 2020 and 45 million in 2030. In fact, according to the data released in Liaoning in 2020, the population of the whole province was 435 1.7 million at the end of 438+09 in 2065, and the trend of population decline cannot be reversed.
The population of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces has been continuously negative growth, so it is very difficult to turn it into positive growth. If the northeast is fully liberalized, it cannot be said that it has no effect on slowing down the downward trend of population, and it can play a certain national demonstration role, but it is of little practical significance. ? Lu Jiehua said that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed to implement a national strategy to actively respond to the aging population. At present, China is at an important node to adjust and improve the birth policy.
Two children alone? And then what? Comprehensive two children? Implemented on February 28th of 20 13, and on February 28th of 20 16 10/. ? Comprehensive two children? After five years of implementation, Lu Jiehua believes that there are two most likely options for the next policy adjustment. One is? Let the third child go? And the other one is? Full liberalization? . ? The National People's Congress and the National People's Congress will be held in about two weeks, and the data of the seventh population census will be released one after another from April. The reply of the National Health Commission to this proposal at this time is a very important signal. ?
According to the National Names Report 2020 issued by the Ministry of Public Security, as of June 65438+February 3, 2020/kloc-0, there were10035,000 newborns born in 2020 registered with public security organs, a decrease of 175.5 compared with 20 19. Although the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 can not be ignored, this data has aroused widespread concern.
Lu Jiehua said that it is the number of women of childbearing age that decreases with the decrease in the number of newborns. ? 20 to 39 years old is the peak of female fertility. At present, the scale and proportion of people of childbearing age are declining, and the restrictions on the nationwide birth policy should be liberalized as soon as possible. The population of childbearing age born after 2000 is relatively small. Once the baby boom of this group of people of childbearing age is missed, the fertility rate will be more difficult to recover. ?
Can the full liberalization of birth restrictions reverse the downward trend of fertility rate? Lu Jiehua believes that the effect may not be as expected. ? If the expected results are not achieved, other policies may be needed. According to our research, it is more difficult to encourage fertility than to control it. What if the government encourages and the people don't respond? It may involve a series of related policies, such as granting maternity allowance, reducing taxes, providing for the aged at home, delaying retirement age, etc. ?