European and American countries follow the China model.
When the world economy is facing many uncertainties, China's economy is also facing new challenges. Against the background of the Wall Street financial turmoil, China is facing multiple pressures of slowing exports and rising prices. Affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis, China's capital market has been severely tested this year, and the A-share market index has fallen sharply.
Lin Yifu, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, said recently that although China was hit by the current financial crisis, China has huge foreign exchange reserves, China implements capital controls, and China's monetary policy is relatively stable, which can help China better cope with the financial crisis.
"In this financial crisis, China also suffered a loss of wealth. First of all, the equity of those investment banks suffered losses. Second? It's subordinated debt. Although nominally most of the subordinated debts can be recovered because of the US government's bailout, the US capital injection is about 654.38+0.8 trillion US dollars, and the real value of the US dollar has depreciated sharply, resulting in the shrinking of China's foreign exchange reserves. " He Weiwen, a senior international business engineer, told this reporter. Despite this, he believes that the domestic economic fundamentals are generally good.
Although the financial turmoil on Wall Street has worsened the international economic environment, the fundamentals of China's stable economic development have not been reversed. China is expanding domestic demand and striving to maintain rapid economic growth, which is not only conducive to the stable development of the region, but also to the stable development of the world.
It is reported that the bank rescue plan represented by Britain supports several major banks by injecting capital and guaranteeing loans to stabilize the financial market. Nationalization of banks is convenient for the government to directly supervise and guide development. This model is very similar to China's banking system: five state-controlled commercial banks in China have become the focus of the industry and played a key role in stabilizing the financial industry.
The United States is also carrying out mechanism innovation in another field: the Federal Reserve directly injects capital into enterprises by purchasing commercial paper, bypassing the banking system, thus giving play to the role of the government in directly guiding the flow and development direction of resources, initially having the function of economic guidance and planning like the China Development and Reform Commission, and approaching the China model.
China model needs to be optimized.
In the global rescue operation, the government's intervention in the market is getting stronger and stronger, which indicates to some extent that the liberal Anglo-American model that dominated the world for many years will abdicate, the development of Europe and the United States will turn into a new era of re-supervision, the financial industry and market structure will undergo tremendous changes, and a new and stricter regulatory environment will be formed. It can be seen that it is reasonable for China's model to attract attention.
But can China model lead China to modernization?
Some analysts believe that according to the current model, the possibility of China's modernization is very small. If the probability of success exceeds 50%, we must change our development strategy.
With the rising cost of labor and raw materials, the weakening of international demand and the competition from other developing countries, the export advantage, the driving force of China's development in the past 30 years, has disappeared.
To this end, while actively expanding other overseas markets to make up for the losses caused by the shrinking American market, we must expand domestic demand and digest "excess" production capacity with domestic consumption.
Faced with the huge amount of US dollar foreign exchange, some experts suggest that on the one hand, we should optimize the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves and gradually reduce the proportion of US dollar assets, so as to enhance the ability of China's foreign exchange reserves to resist risks and maintain and increase value in the face of financial crisis and turmoil; On the other hand, we should speed up the internationalization of RMB and obtain the status of international settlement.
Market economy helps to realize modernization. Zhang Xiaotao, vice president of the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with this reporter that the financial crisis has slowed down China's exports, but internationalization and marketization are still the general trend of financial reform. The Wall Street financial crisis has also brought enlightenment to China's financial reform, that is, the focus of financial reform is to strengthen supervision first.
He said that finance, as a virtual economy, must be based on the real economy and cannot be too advanced. Under the overall framework of financial reform and opening-up, we should understand the risks of innovation from the global crisis and explore the road of reform and innovation in line with China's national conditions with prudent and gradual steps.
In response to the financial crisis, Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macro Research Office of the Institute of Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that China's policy orientation should be "one guarantee and two controls": ensuring growth, controlling financial risks and controlling inflation. To control financial risks, we must first strengthen the risk monitoring of China's financial industry itself, and financial institutions should not rush to go overseas to bargain-hunting; Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of capital flows, especially to prevent the massive inflow and outflow of international funds; Finally, we must keep the currency relatively stable. (Rococo)