1 What's the current market?
? Looking at the 40 years of real estate development, the general trend is rising all the way, and it has experienced four cold periods, but after the cold, the market will have retaliatory growth, and many people are deeply touched. So what is the price performance of Guangzhou market in the near future? From 20 16 to 20 18, the market price performance is very firm, and the price limit is rising. There are two very important nodes in policy orientation, one is the limit order of 20 17.3.30. The promulgation of this policy led to a double contract in the Guangzhou market. Because of the coexistence, the social security in the restricted area was changed from three years to five years, which greatly reduced the purchasing power of the market. However, even so, the price still rose. After the government regulation failed to achieve the expected effect, the central government was very dissatisfied with the local government's housing price regulation, and the central government directly presided over the regulation, which led to the introduction of a policy to curb the excessive rise of real estate in Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference on 20 18.7.30. After the introduction of the policy. At the end of August (the effect of policy implementation is generally lagging behind), Vanke, as a leading developer in the construction of first-and second-tier cities, took the lead in lowering the prices of a few projects. At the same time, developers face great difficulties through various channels. In order to survive, they promoted sales, which turned into an industry panic. While putting pressure on the government, they also merged small and medium-sized developers. From the end of August to September, most projects joined the army of price reduction promotion. During the National Day, the market unit price was very high. Then on June 5438+065438+ 10, faced with the unstable market price, the pressure of price reduction and land auction for most projects, the local government stabilized the house price again, lowered the interest rate and cancelled the price limit. At the same time, Vanke's National Day discount gradually recovered and the price began to adjust back. The overall market price will be higher than 5438+ 10 in June.
What are the influencing factors of house price?
The reference factors are nothing more than:
1. Short-term government regulation: tightness of financial policy, payment cycle and cash flow of developers, and financing cost of developers; The government regulates purchasing and price fixing, and directly controls the purchasing power of the market.
2. Long-term trend of supply and demand: supply-side costs: high land prices, rising building materials prices and high financing costs for developers; Quantity: The annual supply of new houses in Guangzhou is about 50,000 sets; On the demand side, 1 just needs to increase the population by 500,000 per year, even if it is one of 10, there will be a demand for 50,000 sets of houses; 2 financial needs? According to the current development trend of real estate and cities in China, people who understand real estate research are more willing to choose first-tier cities as a good choice to fight inflation, and the housing resources in first-tier cities are becoming more and more precious; 3 improve the release of the second child, and the demand for improved area is directly stimulated. From these three points of view, Guangzhou market supply demand.
What is the current price trend in the market? ?
In the long run, the price trend of Guangzhou housing market is still rising, which is certain. The GDP of the first-tier cities in China has reached 12% of the national GDP, and there are high-quality employment resources, entrepreneurial resources, network resources, capital resources, medical care, education, transportation, commerce and so on. Therefore, the hukou and houses in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, along with the urban housing exhibition, are valuable resources. Every year, there will be a large number of new people, and the population of first-tier cities is mobile. Moreover, Guangzhou is still in the stage of rapid development, so the current housing price is definitely not the upper limit. From the point of view of inflation, the value of RMB is constantly depreciating, and from the point of view of anti-inflation, house prices also need to be raised.
When is the right time to buy a house?
If the purchase stage of 18 is when, the answer is National Day, after all, the price advantage is obvious. But now that it's over, there's no point in watching it again. Then the next month (65438+February) I think it should be comparable to the advantage of National Day in terms of price.
According to your situation, you want to buy a cost-effective project in Nansha District. Then, judging from the current projects on sale in the market: the unit price of the mature plate in the new Jinzhou area is less than 25,000, and only Li Jingwan in Sunshine City and Binhai New Town in Yuexiu are below 20,000 because of the subjective factors of the developers; The unit price of Nanshawan plate is less than 23,000? There are only two Xiyue projects, and there are only two Xiyue buildings left now, and Building 6 has also been sold out, which means that there are no projects in Nanshan Bay below 23,000, and some of those 23,000 are properties of small developers. Most of them will pursue cost performance. Therefore, after the 8.8% discount was launched last weekend, the transaction rate of the case exceeded 50%; Next, the government rarely auctions residential land in mature sectors such as Nanshan Bay, Jinzhou District and Jiaomen. Even if there is a high land price, the unit price will definitely be high. So now we see that the projects with low unit price in Nansha are basically concentrated in Huangge plate, which is the trend of future projects. There will be more and more projects in Huangge, and mature plate projects will become more and more precious. There is a difference of at least five years between the development of Huangge and the mature plate.
? Judging from the price trend, National Day was a good opportunity, but we missed it. Fortunately, in the next 65438+February, due to the developer's sprint goal, the transaction volume will increase through certain concessions. So the price is comparable to the advantage of National Day. Now 65438+February is the only 20 days left in the 20 18 fiscal year. The real estate industry is a savage industry with high turnover. Whether the goal is completed or not determines whether the project marketing manager can continue to work to earn money, and the greater impact will also be related to the brand influence of listed companies. So to sum up, I think the current market price is definitely a very good time. The price trend of the market, through the interpretation of essential data, shows that market demand is greater than supply, and the cost of supply is rising. This trend, price trend is very obvious. The long-term upward trend is obvious. In the next few months, I think the project price should be at the low level of 18 in February. Even if it doesn't rise in the future, it is likely to be sideways for a while, and then it will start to rise from some favorable incentives (subway opening, financial relaxation, etc.). ).