This article was first published in the official account of WeChat "Hong Kong Stock Excavator". Its original title was: "It was very cold in winter, and brokers began to harvest brokers". Click to view.
Shocked the securities industry
Christmas Eve is not safe. Ji Shu's circle of friends has been screened.
CITIC Securities (06030. HK/600030。 The leading brokerage firm SH) suddenly said that it would buy a brokerage firm: Guangzhou Securities (000987. SZ)。
Just two months ago, Yuexiu Financial Holdings completed the acquisition of the remaining 32.765% equity of Guangzhou Securities with a valuation of 6.263 billion yuan, reversing the valuation of Guangzhou Securities two months ago to1.91.1.50 billion yuan, representing a premium of 76.33% over the book net assets.
However, the broad masses of the people have no time to look at these data. The acquisition of brokers by brokers alone is enough to make many outsiders particularly excited. What is "the strong will always be strong" and what is "Matthew effect"?
Some people in the industry seem to be very happy. Ji Shu saw that many friends of CITIC Securities forwarded the screenshot of the announcement and said: It's finally officially announced, and then it will be fine;
Another part of the insider's mood was obviously affected. Ji Shu's friends who saw Guangzhou Securities either didn't send this news or calmly matched some of their own words. It is said that they will lay off half of their employees because of this. I don't know if it's true or not.
In any case, CITIC Securities, nicknamed "Maipu Goldman Sachs", is a giant, which proves that it is somewhat married to a giant.
It's just that there will be a "not so smooth" run-in between CIC and CIC. Recently, there is even a saying that CIC wants to rename CIC Securities as "CIC Wealth", which is really embarrassing. After all, CIC Securities, formerly known as Southern Securities, was once one of the three largest brokers in China.
I want to ask this question today. CITIC buys Guangzhou. What does uncle Ji think?
The answer is: what do you think? Make a pot of tea, wrap a blanket and sit and watch.
In the short 30-year history of China Securities Company, when is there less such bottom merger? There is nothing we can do in this big era. If it's cold, wrap a blanket to keep warm, and drink some hot tea to warm yourself from the inside out.
Still need to wait, I have heard the footsteps of spring.
Go back to the last round of mergers and acquisitions and look at CITIC Securities at that time. Interestingly, after more than ten years, it is still doing the same thing.
On the rise of CITIC: M&A accounts for a large proportion.
CITIC Securities was established in Beijing on1October 25th, 1995, and it was not the first batch of domestic securities firms. Perhaps because there is no historical burden in the past, CITIC Securities has taken a unique upward route.
Wang Dongming, the former chairman who brought CITIC to the top, once boasted that CITIC Securities should be the "China version of Goldman Sachs"! To this end, he also asked a foreigner to write "Goldman Sachs Empire" and asked someone to translate it into Chinese, recommending it to employees of CITIC Securities.
So what is the rising route of CITIC Securities? Ji Shu's summary is: "obscene development, don't wave" (game language, without any derogatory meaning):
I'm big-I bought it at buy buy-I'm strong.
First, "I have grown up greatly". 1999 CITIC Securities successfully jumped its registered capital to 2.082 billion yuan through share reform and the introduction of strategic investors. 1995 was only 300 million when it was first established. What does more capital mean? It doesn't make any sense. It's not easy to have money.
And then "I bought it at buy buy". From 2003 to 2007, I bought brokers, funds and futures successively:
When domestic securities firms generally have the worst money, they continue to sell and eat Wantong Securities and Jintong Securities headquartered in Shandong and Zhejiang. At present, most of the powerful brokerage business teams of CITIC Securities are related to companies in Shandong and Zhejiang.
In 2005, the former boss CITIC Jiantou and CCB Investment (holding 60%) were transformed into CITIC Jiantou Securities. Since then, it has been arguing with CITIC Jiantou Securities until June 29, 20 10. Under the requirement of "one participation and one control" by the CSRC, CITIC Securities also listed and transferred its shares in CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Financial Assets Exchange. It was acquired by Beijing State Management Center and became the largest shareholder of CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd.. CITIC Securities changed from the limited absolute controlling party of CITIC Jiantou to the shareholder;
During this period, I tried to eat GF Securities in the crisis, but unfortunately it was beaten back by GF Securities.
Later, I ate Huaxia Fund and Taurus Futures. ...
Then there is "I am strong and I am strong". 20 12 citic securities acquired CLSA, a French company headquartered in hong kong, and gained a firm foothold in overseas markets. This is now CITIC CLSA in Hong Kong, which is booming in the Hong Kong stock market.
It is based on the vision of "China Goldman Sachs" that the transformation of CITIC Securities is early and extremely bold in China.
For example, the scale of brokerage business was reduced. In 20 17 years, they closed seven business departments voluntarily, showing different views on traditional brokerage business. According to their annual report, what they are doing now is to "gradually build the largest, most comprehensive and professional financial product supermarket" and transform into wealth management.
On 20 18 12 10, citic securities announced that the brokerage business department had been renamed as the wealth management Committee, which caused an uproar for a time. It seems that the management has not broken its word, saying that it wants to transform wealth management, and finally even gave up the name "brokerage business".
Follow-up documents show that CITIC Securities will establish a promotion system from headquarters to branches, and pilot regional wealth management centers in seven cities including Beishangguang. At the same time, it is planned that by 20021,the number of wealth management customers and total assets will increase by 50%, and the investment service fee will exceed 200 million yuan, which will eventually become an important income component of the department and optimize the income structure.
The wheat shop Goldman Sachs is so fierce, are other small and medium-sized brokers shivering?
It is right to be afraid. The capital market is like this. Now there are cheap goods everywhere, which is a good time for rich institutions to go out to receive goods. CITIC Securities, a leading brokerage firm, naturally has to do its part.
And Guangzhou Securities is really worried this year.
Bottom-hunting or bailout?
Looking back at the performance of Guangzhou Securities, short-term traders may gasp at this big merger of securities firms.
According to the semi-annual report published by Yuexiu Financial Holdings, the main business segments of Guangzhou Securities are securities brokerage business, credit business, asset management business, securities proprietary business and investment banking business. The main business is in South China. According to the company's semi-annual report, the overall profit decline is very obvious.
In the month of 1 1 this year, the losses of Guangzhou Securities exceeded 1000000, while in the previous month of 1 1, the accumulated losses exceeded 1.
In fact, just two months ago, Yuexiu Financial Holdings completed the acquisition of the remaining 32.765% equity of Guangzhou Securities. Before long, it took the son home. Now you have to sell it again, which shows how difficult the situation is.
Not only the declining business, but also the equity pledge business that surged two or three months ago. According to the company's semi-annual report, Guangzhou Securities also has 4.874 billion yuan.
As we all know, equity pledge has become an important fuse that affects financial and even economic stability. The net assets of Guangzhou Securities are about 654.38+008 billion, and the core net capital is 7765.438+02 billion. However, the total equity pledge has reached 6.393 billion, especially after June, the market has seen an obvious correction, and the current financial situation can be imagined.
This is all real money, in black and white, and no one can deny it. This sweet potato is really spicy.
The performance of Guangzhou Securities has declined, and there are great risks in asset quality. The acquisition of such assets by CITIC Securities itself will bear greater performance pressure, but what is more important is the purchase price. As the announcement shows that both parties have reached an intention to purchase, the transaction price and other contents may not be announced until several trading days later.
However, it should be noted that Yuexiu Financial Holdings received 1.76 times PB when it acquired Guangzhou Securities, and now it is sold to CITIC Securities. According to common sense, it is good to sell it to CITIC Securities at a fair price. Even if it is sold at a fair price, Yuexiu Financial Holdings will have to bear an additional 28 million underwriting losses and legal fees in order to complete the last fundraising transaction.
According to the valuation of Hong Kong stocks alone, CITIC Securities is only 0.94 times. Although CITIC has deep pockets, according to the inertia of Hong Kong stocks, it is conceivable that CITIC Securities will perform at least in the Hong Kong stock market after the resumption of trading.
In the view of Ji Shu's colleague Xie Zhi, CITIC Securities acquired a brokerage with a ranking far lower than its own, with doubtful asset quality and a high probability premium, and did not plan the license assets of Guangzhou Securities. The significance of saving the market is far greater than the actual income.
Because the industry is fully competitive, its symbolic significance is only the first shot of supply-side reform to promote the securities industry, and there is still a long way to go for industry leaders to have pricing power.
Ji Shu feels that Guangzhou Securities must be forced to sell all of itself to CITIC Securities.
We don't know the details of the transaction, but it will never be the last merger of securities companies in the past two years. This is the beginning of the end and a new beginning.
From 2002 to 2006, China's A-share brokers experienced a wave of "war-torn" brokerage closures, or a wave of brokerage mergers and acquisitions, which is an inevitable choice for the supply-side reform of the securities industry under the long-term bear market.
With Huatai Securities' entry into United Securities in 2006, the market gradually woke up, and the market vane of securities firms really tried and tested-the big bull market in 2007 is still the springboard for many people's lives for the first time.
Of course, history will not be simply repeated, it will be repeated and repeated in a wonderful way. (End)