The new development model is China's active strategic choice.
Guangzhou Daily Theory Weekly: What is the consideration of "accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with domestic macro-cycle as the main body and domestic and international dual-cycle promoting each other"? What impact will the new development pattern bring to the future development of China economy?
Xu Hongcai: This is a realistic choice based on the changes in the international environment and domestic situation facing China. At present, it is obviously unsustainable to rely too much on external demand for development. In addition, since the economic development of China entered the new normal, the economic structure has been gradually adjusted and the mode of economic development has gradually changed. From the adjustment of economic structure, the proportion of service industry and consumption in promoting economic growth is rising, and the dependence of economy on foreign trade is decreasing year by year. This reflects a trend that the contribution of economic internal circulation and domestic market to economic growth is on the rise. In the future, the dependence of China's economic development on foreign trade contribution will gradually decline, which conforms to the objective law and is also our objective need to safeguard national economic security and maintain stable economic development.
Of course, we should also avoid a misunderstanding, that is, the reduction of the dependence of economic growth on foreign trade means the reduction of the level of economic openness. The low dependence of economic development on foreign trade does not mean that its openness is low. For example, the dependence of American economy on foreign trade is only about 20%, but the globalization level of American economy is still very high, especially at the level of rules, such as tariff level, market barriers, currency convertibility and so on. Therefore, we should pay special attention to reducing the dependence of economic development on foreign trade, expanding domestic demand, smoothing the internal circulation of the economy and improving the level of economic opening, which go hand in hand. For China, the new round of opening to the outside world is not only the expansion of quantity and the free flow of factors, but also the docking of systems and rules with the international community. This is a feature of our continued opening up under the new development pattern.
Zhu Tian: For China's economy, both domestic and international markets must be considered. At the same time, it should be noted that the proportion of domestic market in China's economy has been rising in recent ten years. Even if the policy has not changed, China's economy will follow this trend. In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, the proportion of exports in China's GDP has been declining. On the one hand, because China's economic growth rate is much faster than that of the global economy, with the continuous expansion of China's economic scale, our export growth rate (that is, the growth rate of overseas demand) will inevitably be slower than that of China's economy, and the proportion of exports will decline. On the other hand, as the second largest economy in the world, its trade dependence is naturally lower than that of relatively small economies such as Singapore, Switzerland and South Korea. As the largest economy in the world, American exports only account for about 12% of GDP, while Japanese exports account for less than China's. Therefore, China's dependence on the international market will continue to decline, which is the result of economic development.
Guangzhou Daily and Theory Weekly: Why do you propose "taking the domestic cycle as the main body"? Some people think that the new development pattern of China is dominated by the domestic cycle, which is a passive response caused by the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and the increase of external environmental uncertainty. What do you think of this?
Xu Hongcai: We are a big manufacturing country with complete industrial chain and strong supporting capacity. On this basis, we will steadily promote the high-end industrial chain and cultivate new kinetic energy for economic development. Affected by the epidemic, some industrial chains were broken. We should not only repair the industrial chain, but also strengthen its competitiveness. For individual "stuck neck" links and key areas with relatively high technical content, it is also necessary to enhance the ability of independent innovation and avoid the risk of "broken chain". In the context of the global epidemic, it is of great significance for us to smooth the internal circulation of the economy.
Dong Xiaolin: From the international experience, the economies of big countries need a strong internal economic circulation system in the process of development; Generally speaking, a large country with a vast territory and a large population cannot be too extroverted economically. In fact, China's domestic market space is far from being fully developed, the internal market potential is still great, and there is still room for growth in local economic development.
We should also see that many countries in the world are unable to achieve new breakthroughs in the process of moving from middle-income countries to high-income countries, and as a result, they fall into the "middle income trap". Accelerating the development of domestic macro-cycle will help to create new growth space for preventing middle-income trap. In addition, China has the conditions to do a good job in internal circulation. China is not only the only country in the world where all industrial categories are included in the United Nations industrial classification, but also has a super-large market and a huge middle-income population.
Therefore, as a developing country and a big country, it is not only necessary, but also has good conditions, which is also the embodiment of China's initiative.
Taking the domestic big cycle as the main body, it is not subtraction, but increment.
Guangzhou Daily and Theory Weekly: How to understand the dialectical relationship between domestic circulation and opening wider to the outside world? Under the new development pattern, how can China continue to open wider to the outside world?
Xu Hongcai: Deepening reform and opening wider to the outside world is our country's consistent strategic choice, which will not change, but will only be strengthened and expanded. Therefore, in recent years, the opening of China's service industry, especially the financial service industry, has been steadily advancing. To promote high-quality and high-level opening to the outside world, we must promote opening to the outside world from the level of systems and rules. For example, in implementing negative list, market access system and optimizing business environment, we have to benchmark international high standards, and this direction will not change. The utilization of international and domestic markets and resources is still the driving force and source of China's sustainable economic development in the future.
Dong Xiaolin: The connotation of openness should be two-way openness. We emphasize opening to the outside world as well as opening to the inside. At present, China is still opening up and will continue to participate in and promote the healthy development of economic globalization. But at the same time, in order to make China's economic development more stable, while completing the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, it is necessary to strengthen the internal circulation of the economy. But this is not a simple increase or decrease or a trade-off, not to say that we should cut the external circulation. It should be said that this is an increment, and what we have to do is an increment.
Continue to open wider to the outside world, on the one hand, achieve a more comprehensive opening up. It turns out that our market has a certain concentration, but from the perspective of dispersing international market risks and avoiding uncertain factors, it may be necessary to find new market space more comprehensively. On the other hand, we should optimize the trade structure, including the optimization of regional structure, market structure and product structure. From a regional perspective, we should focus on the market where we have comparative advantages; In terms of products, we should not only optimize trade in materials, but also pay attention to strengthening trade in services.
Zhu Tian: Of course, we should continue to open wider to the outside world. Theoretically speaking, even if the other side is not open, the open side is still beneficial. Therefore, the country has also made it clear that it is necessary to increase opening up and adhere to the general direction of globalization, which will not change and should not change. However, we should also realize that the future opening to the outside world does not mean the continuous growth of China's total export volume, but the improvement of export quality and added value. For example, in the past, we exported more low-end products, and we may export more high value-added and high-tech products in the future. The domestic market and the international market will promote each other, international trade will continue, and more emphasis will be placed on reciprocity, marketization and rule of law, and all kinds of enterprises can compete equally and fairly.
It is necessary to practice internal strength and improve domestic economic efficiency.
Guangzhou Daily Theory Weekly: What is the relationship between optimizing the domestic economic cycle and expanding domestic demand? How to grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand?
Xu Hongcai: Expanding domestic demand is an important content to smooth the internal circulation of the economy. Expanding domestic demand includes expanding investment and consumption. Investment in real estate and infrastructure should optimize the economic structure and improve the efficiency of economic growth, but more attention should be paid to the development of high-tech fields and high-end manufacturing industries in order to build a manufacturing power. Consumption should start with employment and income. By continuing to promote new urbanization, create more employment opportunities, improve the income level of ordinary people, expand the scale of middle-income groups through "double innovation" and improve the social security system, and promote the transformation of "dumbbell" income distribution structure to "olive" income distribution structure. Expanding the scale of middle-income groups is the key task in the future "14 th Five-Year Plan" period, and it is also the key to successfully cross the "middle-income trap" in China.
Dong Xiaolin: We should see the dialectical relationship between domestic and international double circulation and mutual promotion. After the economic internal circulation becomes bigger, stronger and better, it can objectively drive the economic external circulation. As we all know, the most prominent motivation for international investors and foreign-funded enterprises to come to China is that China has a market and great market potential, but it may have been mainly aimed at the coastal market in China. If the internal circulation of the economy develops and the demand in the mainland increases, it may further promote the investment of foreign-funded enterprises in China and bring positive effects to better realize the external circulation of the economy. Similarly, the external economic cycle can also drive the internal economic cycle. Through the external economic cycle, we can absorb the international advanced experience in business environment construction, advanced technology and enterprise management to China, promote reform and development through opening up, optimize the internal economic cycle, and promote the reform and development process of China.
Xu Hongcai: Or "bringing in" and "going out". In introducing foreign capital, it is necessary to further optimize the business environment, reduce fees and taxes, promote fair competition in the market, and enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital. In addition, we will continue to promote foreign investment. Foreign investment should adapt to the transformation and upgrading of our domestic industries, focus on ourselves, and use external markets and resources for us. It is necessary to prevent and control some risks of foreign investment, including the "Belt and Road" cooperation, and pay special attention to preventing and controlling financial risks. Because we don't know enough about the target market, we should strengthen this research and do our homework before investing.
Zhu Tian: The key for every country to develop its economy is to do its own thing well and practice its internal strength, that is, to improve its domestic economic efficiency. No matter for enterprises or countries, to achieve medium and long-term development, we must do three things well: investment, education and technological progress, which are the three key points to promote long-term economic growth. For enterprises, it is necessary to do a good job in personnel training, continuously realize technological progress and continuously invest in new production capacity. For ordinary people, China's economic development potential is still great, so there is no need to worry too much about the impact of international political and trade disputes on China's economy. With such a large market in China, China's economy can achieve internal circulation to a great extent, and there will be great room for development for both enterprises and individuals. As long as we persist in reform and opening up, the best days for China are still ahead.
Guangdong should "shoulder the heavy burden" and do a good job of mutual promotion between the two cycles.
Guangzhou Daily Theory Weekly: The Politburo meeting first mentioned "cross-cycle design and adjustment of macro-control", emphasizing the understanding of medium and long-term problems from the perspective of protracted war. What kind of policy thinking does this reflect?
Xu Hongcai: This reflects the development idea of combining short-term policies with long-term policies, taking into account both the immediate and the long-term. In order to achieve a longer-term and sustainable development, facing the economic cycle, we should try our best to cut the peaks and fill the valleys and smooth out the fluctuations of the economic cycle through macro-control. Whether it is "counter-cyclical" regulation or "cross-cyclical" regulation, its connotation is the same, both of which are aimed at reducing economic fluctuations and enhancing the sustainability of economic development.
Dong Xiaolin: It should be said that this is a process of continuous policy improvement, and it is a policy optimization made to make the overall economic development of China more stable. The adjustment from "counter-cyclical" to "cross-cyclical" means that the formulation of policies is no longer limited to being led by the economic development cycle-for example, when the economy is cold, it will quickly release water and money, and then when the economy is hot, it will shrink rapidly, thus reducing the number of palliative measures; Instead, we should control the overall supply of domestic money and inflation, and promote economic development by developing the market itself and making the real economy develop better. Because if we don't look at the problem from a longer-term perspective, the timeliness of the policy may be short and become a short-term behavior. Although the market sometimes has short-term behavior, we say that if we want to give full play to the role of the government, then the government should make up for the shortcomings of the market and make up for some disadvantages that may be brought about by the short-term behavior of the market with longer-term behavior.
Guangzhou Daily Theory Weekly: Under the current situation, as the frontier of reform and opening up and a major foreign trade province, how can Guangdong break through the "double cycle" on the basis of the "big cycle", cultivate new machines and open up new opportunities in the new development pattern?
Zhu Tian: Guangdong is one of the best areas for China to open to the outside world. Guangdong has a rich and complete manufacturing supply chain, leading the country in industrial upgrading, and some high-tech industries are already catching up with developed countries. At the same time, Guangdong's private economy is relatively developed, and the development space of Guangdong is worth looking forward to. It should be noted that Guangdong, especially Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has a relatively high level of economic development, and its growth rate will naturally slow down. In the future, we should focus on improving the quality of development.
Dong Xiaolin: On the one hand, Guangdong should participate in the new pattern of national dual-cycle development and actively provide support and help; On the other hand, from the point of view of its own development, it is also necessary to do a good job of double-cycle articles in the province. To this end, it is necessary to "hematopoietic" Guangdong, East and West, enhance their economic development ability, and better smooth the internal economic cycle. At the same time, Guangdong shoulders the responsibility of standing at the forefront of reform and opening up and doing a good job in external circulation. Therefore, Guangdong should "shoulder the heavy burden bravely", especially make good use of the important opportunity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's construction. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has a good geographical advantage. On the one hand, we should rely on Greater Bay Area to better integrate our own internal resources, including Hong Kong and Macao resources; On the other hand, face the international market and integrate international resources. We should make full use of Greater Bay Area's advantages, not only to continue to be a world factory, but also to become a world store and a world bank. In other words, our manufacturing, service and financial industries should be continuously optimized and upgraded. Just because of this, we can give feedback to the inner loop while doing a good job in the article of outer loop, and realize the mutual promotion of the two loops.