The occurrence of declining birthrate will have an impact on short-term and significant industries: education, such as public and private schools, junior high schools, high schools and universities, will also indirectly affect cram schools and baby-care industries, such as infant supplies suppliers, toy industry and publishing industry. Children's books and children's books will be hit hard. (Dairy) Although agriculture will face the decline of infant market, it can still be transformed into adult market and maternal and child medical care.
The serious phenomena derived from the declining number of children in education are: merging classes, reducing classes, merging schools, canceling schools, overstaffing teachers, teachers without teaching staff (commonly known as wandering teachers), popularization of substitute classes, prevalence of small class system, and tension between parents and teachers, and teachers and administrative personnel. However, there is also a potential crisis, that is, the frequent transfer of teachers leads to the alienation of teacher-student relationship and the decline of teaching quality. After all, teachers realize that their future is unstable, and it is difficult to pay enthusiasm for teaching. Students will also have problems in the connection and adaptation of courses because of the break of the relationship, which will lead to the decline of learning efficiency.
The baby care and toy industries are bound to transform, such as operating the game software industry, general clothing wholesale, general furniture sales, commercial stationery distribution and entertainment products for the elderly. Baby products are really a specialized industry. If we can't open up new marketing fields immediately, the decline may be the fastest, although we can earn a niche that cares for our parents in the early and middle stages of the declining birthrate.
The influence of declining birthrate on the publishing industry is not great, because the transformation is easy, and books that are more in line with the public's appetite can be sold instead. However, publishers of textbooks, test papers, reference books and children's books in primary and secondary schools in chinese editorials suffered the most. After the time is extended, the publishing houses that edit youth publications will also have an impact.
Fewer children have the least impact on dairy (cheese) agriculture, and the demand for milk powder and cheese is almost uninterrupted. Even without children's consumption, many people have a wide demand for milk. Popular foods, such as bread, pizza (Italian bread) and western-style cakes, all need dairy products, and functional milk powder formulated by adults also meets the public's demand for nutrition. Unless there is a serious negative population growth, it will not have much impact.
Pediatrics and obstetrics and gynecology are undoubtedly losers under the trend of declining birthrate. The birth rate has dropped, there are fewer pregnant women, and the delivery business has lost its niche; Because there are no children in pediatrics, the business crisis will soon appear. At present, in Taiwan Province Province, obstetrics and gynecology must be transformed into plastic surgery, urology and even forensic autopsy, and pediatrics must also be transformed into family medicine to survive.
The medium-term impact of declining birthrate will extend to industrial and commercial services and military officialdom. But the influence is not necessarily reflected in the number of people, but in the quality; Because there are too few newcomers, the unit must "accept it all" in talent selection, and the possibility of admission with the same number or vacancies becomes greater, and the quality will gradually decline because of the low reference number. If it is reflected in the national examination, it will be impossible to select available civil servants, administrative police and professional and technical personnel.
Another medium-term impact of the declining birth rate will be reflected in political decision-making. Because a democratic society is based on voters, voters are aging, and the votes of young people are plummeting, candidates who advocate the welfare of the elderly are naturally easy to win. If the expenditure on welfare policies for middle-aged and elderly people is greatly increased, it will crowd out the welfare expenditure of children, teenagers and infants, making young voters even more reluctant to have children, because young people do not want to have children without government support. In countries with limited tax revenue, there will not only be a vicious circle of generations, but also a government financial crisis, which is the result of caring for the elderly. If the elderly have poor personal financial situation and high medical expenses, but have no offspring, they will have bad debts when they die, which will drag down medical finance.
The side effect of declining birthrate is aging, which will lead to serious ethical crisis, such as the death of elderly people living alone, abandonment of support, illegal euthanasia and so on. Not only are there fewer and fewer young people who can support the elderly, but their individualism is getting stronger and stronger, and they will ignore the traditional filial piety. Therefore, more disabled and helpless old people have to face the reluctance of young people to undertake the obligation of support and have to go to the end of their lives in illness and loneliness. In addition, modern people's concept of death has changed greatly, and they tend to "die with dignity". Euthanasia will become a reality sooner or later under the trend of thinking of daring to seek death to solve the pain of life. However, before euthanasia is legalized, illegal euthanasia, whether it is the subjective consciousness of doctors or the secret instigation of family members, will gradually lose the legal and moral protection of the lives of the elderly. However, judging from the current public sentiment in Taiwan Province Province, euthanasia will not be an antidote to aging for the time being.
The declining birthrate in the middle period is a cruel test for education, especially national education. National education begins with six-year-old children. Without them, it is impossible to maintain it, nor can immigrants replace it. Therefore, there is bound to be a wave of abandonment in primary schools. General Manager Primary School in Tainan County and Yuguang Primary School in Taipei County are both victims in the early and middle stages of declining birthrate. Even if a large number of characteristics are developed, we have to face the reality, and even do not rule out the emergence of "wandering principals." Under the pressure of abandoned schools, the long-criticized ability to divide classes will revive under the pressure of parents, which will lead to the competition between public and private schools for students and further distort the education that places great emphasis on intellectual education. Moreover, abandoned schools are undoubtedly a disaster for villages in remote towns and villages. The maintenance of local social relations depends on the space and popularity of the school. Without the support of schools, parents with children will have to move their families to cities, leaving only the elderly in the community, and the community will be on the verge of collapse.
In the long run, all the labor force will decline to varying degrees because of the population decline, especially the positions with strong demand for manpower are most affected by the shortage of labor force. It is not useless to have fewer children, but based on the discussion of social development, the disadvantages of having fewer children have been seriously exaggerated. Generally speaking, the positive significance of declining birthrate lies in:
Reduce the environmental burden: because modern people's lives are too dependent on science and technology, it has caused pollution and environmental damage; The decrease of population will reduce consumption and pollution, and it is possible to restore the release of nature reserves.
Alleviate the shortage of food: the surplus population will consume too much food, and it is bound to compete with nature for the remaining arable land to ensure food security. Having fewer children can alleviate this tension, and people can be fed without producing agricultural, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry products that exceed the environmental burden, so there is no need to cause environmental damage because of diet.
Reduction of social contradictions: When the urban population is too large, the tension, friction and ethical problems between people will become very acute social problems, while due to the imbalance of resources and education, unemployment, murder, robbery and sexual crimes will emerge one after another, seriously eroding social stability. Having fewer children will solve the social problems of mankind in the future.
Abundant resource allocation: If the food sharing effect of the population is reduced, resources can be enjoyed equally by all, education, employment opportunities and physical resources can be popularized to the public with high quality, and the class gap can be reduced.
Rationalization of real estate prices: excessive demand and speculation of real estate prices stem from overpopulation. If too many people have housing needs, real estate prices will skyrocket abnormally, causing social unrest. In the long run, having fewer children will reduce the demand for real estate. For people who want to live in their own house, they can realize their dream of living in their own house without heavy housing loans.
Education tends to be of high quality: with fewer children, teachers' responsibilities are relatively heavier, and the level of each student should be improved, and efforts should be made to improve the education level. The old low-cost scripted lectures and paper-and-pencil exams are no longer suitable for the needs of the times. We should design more lively courses in line with all-round development in order to inspire students.
Reduce the cost of care for the elderly in the future: having fewer children means that in the next 50 to 70 years, the elderly in the future will no longer need to invest astronomical resources in nursing, and they can spend more equipment, resources and money to improve other medical technologies.