According to the trend chart analysis, the change of school-age population before 2020 can be roughly divided into four stages: the first stage is 1984? The rising stage of ~ 199 1 year; The second stage is the descending stage of 199 1~ 1998; The third stage is the rising stage from 1998 to 2008; The fourth stage is the decline stage from 2008 to 2020. From the growth rate of school-age population, what is the overall average growth rate of school-age population from 1984 to 2020? -0.78%, and the local average increase in the fourth stage is? -2.27%。 And there will never be another peak in history.

The changing trend of school-age population in China

According to population statistics, the birth peak in China stops at 199 1. Since then, the downward trend of the number of newborn babies in the country has continued until? 2000? A few years. It is inferred that the downward trend of the number of college entrance examination students in China will continue until? 20 18? A few years.

According to the analysis of the birth rate of China Statistical Yearbook by Professor Cheng Yao and Professor Zhang of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, the number of school-age population in higher education reached its peak in 2008. After 2009, the number of school-age population in higher education will decrease year by year, and by 2020, the number of school-age population in higher education will decrease by about 30%. Even if the scale of higher education development does not increase in the future, the gross enrollment rate of higher education will naturally increase. ?